FOUR GO CLOSE BUT ONLY 3-1 WINNER: Four placed out of four yesterday, including third at 7-1 and second at 7-2, but only Georgian Manor (WON 3-1) to show for it. Daqman was not well pleased with Hazapour (see ‘Kew’ Last Hope).).
CONFIDENCE IN NEWBURY BEST BET: There are some decent races today, including the Scottish Sprint Cup, but whether rain will affect the ground and which way the draw will go makes it hard to bet. However, Daqman has a confident nap at Newbury earlier.
‘KEW’ LAST HOPE ON CENTRE STAGE
You won’t see Masar again. Not unless connections are mad enough to throw away his stud value on the racecourse next year.
As it is, the Epsom Derby winner can just about claim to be the only one of his generation worth a mare’s time and money.
For every Group race that goes by, the Derby veneer is chipped away and more dead wood is revealed. Hazapour was the latest flop last night.
This is the time of year when their hefty allowance gifts the big prizes to second-season animals.
But last night Hazapour, the Derby fifth, was beaten by two five-year-olds who could muster one Listed and one Group 3 between them in 26 starts since last Spring. This is the Derby record in the seven weeks since the race:
MASAR cried off until 2019; injured
DEE EX BEE seventh in the Irish Derby, third Grand Prix de Paris
ROARING LION won the Coral-Eclipse, beating Saxon Warrior
SAXON WARRIOR third in the Irish Derby, second in the Eclipse
HAZAPOUR third in the Group-3 Meld Stakes at Leopardstown last night
DELANO ROOSEVELT fifth King Edward V11 Stakes; third Irish Derby
The only winners are Roaring Lion, because dropped back to 1m 2f against horses he’d beaten before, and Kew Gardens.
Kew Gardens (ninth at Epsom) is the Derby’s last hope. He won the Grand Prix de Paris but can he handle the King George only a fortnight later?
If he fails to turn up at Ascot, four four-year-olds (Crystal Ocean, Cracksman, Waldgeist, Coronet) and a five-year-old (Poet’s Word) will make up the market.
ROCOCO ‘COULD BE ANYTHING’..
3.05 Newbury Three-year-olds with 8st 11lb or less win this, like Mistress Quickly a year ago, now faced with giving up to 20lb to the second-season fillies.
Mistress Quickly has won nothing since, so I think we are justified in saying that she took advantage of the age concession last year, proving the point.
Lady of Shalott, fourth in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, may have a touch of class, but it’s cost her; she gets only 3lb from Mistress Quickly and has to give more than a stone to three of her age.
Half-sister to a St Leger third and a Chester Cup winner, Rococo came on nicely in the Spring and ‘could be anything’ after her break. This further step up in trip is exciting, and 3.35 on BETDAQ tempting.
Saving Grace has been well placed by Luca Cumani but the form of her Doncaster success a fortnight ago doesn’t amount to taking this step up in class.
Galmarley and Roystonia finished close together in their one-two at Chepstow. The third filly has won since, but again nothing that you’d write home about.
Casima went well clear in the early stages of the Lingfield Oaks Trial and should ensure a good test here for Rococo. The older filly, Lady Bergamot, may be the only serious threat to the selection, as a strong stayer already proven at this level.
DRINKS ALL ROUND ON THE BARBILL
3.35 Newbury (Rose Bowl) Some decent sorts have turned up in this (Limato 2014, Tasleet 2015) but only Limato (stall 5) could show his tremendous speed and win in the last nine seasons from a stall higher than 4.
Punters please note: the winner and runner-up (Cotai Glory for Charles Hills) that year both went on to score at Glorious Goodwood the following month.
Cotai Glory’s yard is now represented by Chuck Willis (gate five), who won well at Ayr but does not appeal on pedigree, and the Ayr placed horses have let the form down.
Emaraaty Anna’s runner-up when he won easily in the Spring has scored since, though not at this level, and the six stall makes life difficult.
The Coventry Stakes was asking a lot of Newbury CD second Barbill (not clear run, weakened) and he ran well again on the last day over a trip too short at Sandown.
With his stable in form for weeks now, Barbill (stall 1) represents the biggest danger to Natalie’s Joy (in 2), runaway six-lengths Goodwood winner before her seventh, beaten favourite, in the Chesham.
Natalie’s draw and her 5lb fillies’ allowance makes her hard to oppose under Frankie Dettori but Barbill was a huge price at offers of 7.0 on BETDAQ early mouse, with 2.16 Natalie’s Joy.
The six who finished ahead of Natalie’s Joy in the Chesham have been beaten – two seconds – in ordinary races since. The Coventry second won the July Stakes.
7.35 Pontefract Paul Midgley has a marvellous recent record in this race, with figures of 111123 in the last six years through three horses, Another Wise Kid, Gamesome and Silvanus.
His choice to enter the fray for him today is Move In Time who, at 10, is the same age as Silvanus when he won it for the second time three years ago: 3.7 BETDAQ offers.
THE GREAT WALL LAID OUT FOR THIS
7.20 Hamilton (Scottish Stewards Cup) As ever the Racing Post gives you the choice on the draw (!).
The Hamilton Ten-Year-Trends for this race scores 6 for high, 1 for the middle and 3 for low. Turn over the page and Hamilton Top Draw gives most points to low.
In fact, the results by stall in the decade read: 13, 4, 15, 14, 2, 11, 15, 11, 6.
How much, if any, of the forecast rain falls will benefit Naadir, Flying Pursuit, Dark Defender, Mobsta, Russian Realm in 1, 4, 6, 12 and 13.
But the most significant plea for rain is for Hamilton CD winner The Great Wall, who will carry a featherweright from stall 8 with this race the plan for some time.
Of the two previous winners back for more, Poyle Vinnie is 5lb lower and Classic Seniority has 3lb less.
Trainers who’ve had excellent seasons are Mick Channon (Mobsta( and Tim Easterby (Flying Pursuit). But the weights are a big opportunity for The Great Wall (5.2 BETDAQ) to establish himself.
ROSE SMELLS SWEET AT BETDAQ 7.8
8.15 Newmarket This is where I came in. Six years out of nine, three-year-olds beat the older horses in this.
Lady Dancealot and Dizzy G are getting a stone and a half from one-time Group-3 winner, Poet’s Vanity. Which way shall we go?
The question is whether it will rain for Lady Dancealot. Without that knowledge, I have to rely on the Newbury form, in which Restless Rose is 15lb better off with Dizzy G for little more than a length and a half, and is therefore huge at 7.8. Or will the older horses beat the three-year-olds?
At these weights, it’s unthinkable.
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.05 Newbury (win 30)
BET 12pts win (nap) ROCOCO
3.35 Newbury (win 30)
BET 5pts win BARBILL
BET 5pts win (stakes saver) NATALIE’S JOY
7.20 Hamilton (win 20)
BET 5pts win THE GREAT WALL
7.35 Pontefract (win 20)
BET 7.5pts win MOVE IN TIME
8.15 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 4.4pts win RESTLESS ROSE
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