HAT-TRICK ON TIME: Daqman landed his THIRD winning NAP of the week yesterday with Sea On Time (nap) WON 8/13 and there’s plenty of time left on the clock for some more goals in pre-York week. His two other selections yesterday BOTH finished second but it’s the naps that are leading the headlines:
Mon: FARIBA (nap) WON 5/6
Wed: SEEKING GOLD (nap) WON 11/10
Thu: SEA ON TIME (nap) WON 8/13
IS THE NUNTHORPE FAVOURITE SAFE? Daqman has been checking out stats and facts a week in advance of next week’s racing at York. After the Great Voltigeur and Juddmonte International (Wednesday’s column), then the Lowther Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks (Thursday), he now does a bit more favourite bashing in Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes and adds the spice of a 40-1 outsider.
A THIRD 40-1 NUNTHORPE HIT?
⭕ 3.35 York next Friday (Nunthorpe Stakes)
LAYS LOGIC: Last time I checked on BETDAQ, it was 2.44 Royal Aclaim to take the Nunthorpe, but be warned that only two outright favourites have won in the last decade, and one of those was Battaash, who had scored the previous year.
The two-year-olds Dramatised, Persian Force and Little Big Bear are close up in the market but only two juveniles have won since 1956, and I can’t see them even running, which leaves you a tricky choice.
If they don’t go, would-be layers can expect Royal Aclaim to shorten, while backers would see current tempting odds on the rest of the field contract.
HIDDEN HORSE The Battaash yard of Charles Hills could run Khaadem the Goodwood King George sprint winner and/or the eighth horse home that day, Khaadem’s stablemate, Equilateral, whom I marked as a ‘hidden horse’ after that race.
There have been two 40-1 winners of the Nunthorpe in the last nine seasons, one of them – like Equilateral – a seven-year-old, who hadn’t scored since the previous year. Equilateral is three times a winner on firm ground.
The BETDAQ offers about him are 40.0, as I write; small stakes to win 50.
️ MONDAY: Fortune Cookies for York
️ TUESDAY: Ebor Handicap preview
TAKE THE LEAD
⭕ 2.00 Newbury It’s very hard to look beyond the chances of Leadman here and I’ve been looking forward to his reappearance since a very promising debut at Newmarket.
He travelled really well that day and looked the winner two out, despite being weak in the market but probably bumped into a very good one in the shape of the Gosden trained Epictetus who is now around 12/1 for the Dewhurst.
This race is full of potential improvers but it would be a huge surprise if Leadman wasn’t at the top of the tree in that regard.
Bussento was an eye-catcher on debut at Goodwood when fourth to The Foxes but having gone through a red hot patch of form the Eve Johnson Houghton stable have (unlike the weather) just gone a bit cold.
Lahab is a stablemate of Leadman and is another who made a promising start (over the six furlong trip here) and should improve for both the run and the step-up in trip.
⭕ 5.45 Newmarket Counsel is back in handicap company off a mark a pound lower than his last handicap run at Ascot and in the meantime has bolted up by six and a half lengths in a Lingfield novice event.
He looks in good heart and can land this – which doesn’t look the strongest of class 4 events by course standards,
Wajd scored well over course and distance last time out but is up a grade and also up 6lb which tempers enthusiasm.
BISH, BASH, BOSH
⭕ 7.58 Newmarket Morning offers of around 4.2 on Betdaq Betting Exchange made plenty of appeal about Bashosh landing the finale.
The Roger Varian trained runner still looks to have scope for further improvement and can build on his comeback run at Chelmsford in June when second to Karibana.
Chasing Aphrodite bids for a hat-trick but a starting mark of 92 on handicap debut looks high enough.
2.00 Newbury (win 10, nap)
BET 11.1pts win LEADMAN
5.45 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 4.3pts win COUNSEL
7.58 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 3.1pts win BASHOSH
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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