BULL’S-EYE BETS ARE BACK FOR THE GUINEAS TOMORROW: Look out for a Classic weekend of racing with Daqman. The Guineas are here, Saturday and Sunday at Newmarket. The HQ meeting opens today and his bull’s-eye bets will be back tomorrow. But he has again held over his double-value strategy, not just for form to settle down but until we escape the plethora of maidens and trials.
DAY OF OUTSIDERS AGAIN: SANGARIUS TO MISS PARADISE: Today Daqman continues to hunt down big odds, some value, some not. It’s just the time of year: anything can happen, particularly with rain on a firmish surface. He plays wild cards at 30.0, 15.5, 12.5, 10.5, 9.2 and 9.0 after yesterday ‘s places at 16-1 and 10-1 SP. Sangarius, the favourite for the Paradise Stakes, has been withdrawn. Headlines:
🔹 BACK-AND-LAY MISSION AT 30.0
🔹 LUMP ON LUPTON AT TASTY 9.2
🔹 I HOPE TO SAY ’I TOLD YOU SO’..
🔹 IT’S A TRIAL LEAP IN THE DARK
🔹 BROOM BROOME! O’BRIEN’S 15.5
BACK-AND-LAY MISSION AT 30.0
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Dazzling Dan won over the Newmarket CD in the middle of May last year, and will not mind the forecast rain, but Pam Sly hasn’t saddled a winner since September 26.
Ed Walker had a 27% strike rate this year before the lockdown, and Swindler might have landed a hat-trick if, sandwiched between two wins at Ascot, he hadn’t been knocked out of his stride here at Newmarket on the July Course. Goes well fresh.
Open Wide has bridesmaid figures (222430) since winning at Windsor last June, his consistency keeping him high in the handicap and making it hard to win. His yard, which is out of form, also saddles Tinto.
Summerghand is weighted to reverse the one-two with Flavius Titus over this CD last Spring but has a modest strike rate, while Flavius has left Roger Varian.
Recon Mission was aimed high – even ran in the Abbaye – after scoring on good to soft at York a year ago, goes well fresh and is from a yard with 29 winners this year before racing was suspended.
Tim Easterby has had a couple of hits from 20 runners in the last four days but Staxton is unreliable (five times a losing favourite). Gulliver is a York-only winner on turf.
VALUE: Recon Mission is back-and-lay value at 30.0 on BETDAQ this morning. The front-runner is highly regarded but faces the wide open spaces from stall 9 (can James Doyle maneouvre him to the rail?).
Adjacent in 10 with a hold-up style is Swindler, who has refused to go to post before now. Not much value in 3.5 in a sprint where anything can happen but he has done the business despite his kink.
LUMP ON LUPTON AT TASTY 9.2
⭕ 2.25 Newmarket (Abernant Stakes) Brando (2) and Keystroke have won this in the last three seasons but share 16 years on the clock!
Both ran in the race on good-to-firm ground in April last year, with only half a length between them, first and third.
Kevin Ryan (Brando) had a winner on the first day of June but 12 consecutively out of the frame since. He saddles Emaraaty Ana to accompany Brando, and Stuart Williams has Keystroke stablemate Breathtaking Look in the line-up.
Mr Lupton has won in May or June for five years running. He won a Group 2 on his reappearance a year agol. Tasty at 9.2 on BETDAQ. Nap.
I HOPE TO SAY ‘I TOLD YOU SO..’
⭕ 2.40 Lingfield (Oaks Trial) The usual suspects in quality-fillies races – John Gosden and Ralph Beckett – have nearly half the field here.
But there’s no sign of form from Beckett: in fact, two of his blew the money on Wednesday (100-3 Max Vega) and Thursday (3-1 favourite Time Scale).
Gosden meanwhile has landed five winners, including with two fillies, Nazeef and Frankly Darling, who was trialling for the Oaks herself.
Frankie Dettori’s at Newmarket for Stradivarius, so Robert Havlin (Miss Yoda), Martin Harley (Lake Lucerne) and P J Macdonald (Anastarsia) get their chance.
While Frankly Darling is around 12-1 for the Oaks, the nearest among those three in the Epsom market is 33-1 Miss Yoda, and she has to move forward out of the shadow Max Vega has given her.
Max beat her easily at Newmarket in the Zetland Stakes in the autumn but was six lengths of the winner in the Kempton Classic Trial on Wednesday.
Something to race above herself today might be So I Told You (BETDAQ 12.5), related to a European Oaks winner and a hidden filly in that she was too green first time and had to plough through the autumn mud at Nottingham less than three weeks later but did so. Richard Hughes has had a winner this week.
⭕ 3.00 Newmarket (Paradise Stakes) New-favourite Mythical Magic’s best form is at Meydan, and that doesn’t often translate to real racing at home.
Lord Tennyson ‘could be anything.’ Stable in terrific form, so a tentative pound at 9.0 on BETDAQ.
IT’S A TRIAL LEAP IN THE DARK
⭕ 3.15 Lingfield (Derby Trial) Last year’s Derby winner, Anthony Van Dyck, won this. After Epsom, nothing else, as you’d imagine of an early sort who would be well overtaken as the real class colts came out.
Will it be like that this season, or is the month-later Derby going to produce something more mature?
Maybe Anthony Van Dyck can prove me all wrong in the Coronation Cup (3.35 Newmarket today) but I doubt it. You can back him with me unless he’s a big price: otherwise, I’ll be lurking somewhere among the lay offers!
As for this Derby trial, I shall be surprised if any of these actually go to Epsom. I can see Dark Heart (BETDAQ 10.5) getting a tow from stablemate King’s Caper and, you never know, could take after his sire, Nathaniel, and make a leap forward.
BROOM BROOME! O’BRIEN’S 15.5
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Coronation Cup) I said you could lay Anthony Van Dyck with me but he’s 8.7 in the orange, 9.0 in the Green. Not far off his real chance.
Ghaiyyath’s rating has him much shorter but his only English win since his maiden was a Group-3 in 2017.
Cup-king Stradivarius hasn’t raced at 1m 4f for more than three years. Defoe has won in the Spring for three years running but is now a six-year-old.
If you’re trying to price up this race, good luck! It’s conundrum inside an enigma. But I’m wary that Aidan O’Brien is making his first assault on an English prize; Ballydoyle is back in gear. Late as it is, can Broome Spring clean this field?
Broome (BETDAQ 15.5) is certainly a Spring horse. Won the Ballysax and the Derrinstown trial, then only half a length off Anthony Van Dyck in the Epsom Derby. It wouldn’t be the first time O’Brien fans have been looking at the wrong horse.
1.50 Newmarket (back to win 30 and lay)
BET 1pt win RECON MISSION
BET 4pts to win 10 SWINDLER
2.25 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win (nap) MR LUPTON
2.40 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 1.75pts win I TOLD YOU SO
3.00 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.5pts win LORD TENNYSON
3.15 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 2pts win DARK HEART
3.35 Newmarket (win 30)
BET 2pts win BROOME
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