DAQMAN NAP AHEAD OF THE GUINEAS: Daqman landed his nap at Chelmsford last night, the gambled-on Terra Mitica (WON 5-6 from 2.25 on BETDAQ). Now he’s all set with ante-post bets for the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday (3.5 Native Trail) and the 1,000 on Sunday (21.0 Toy) but what will be his final verdict on these weekend Classics?
TODAY: 1,000 Guineas ABC guide, plus the opening of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket; championship races at Punchestown, and a 5.5 tilt at Goodwood.
1,000 GUINEAS ABC OF FORM
⚠️ HEADS UP Aidan O’Brien’s team fails to get into the first six in Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas, according to winning form and key quality races, distance and knowledge of the track, as represented in this Stats ABC.
⭕ 3.40 Newmarket, Sunday (1,000 Guineas) STATS: A 90% of winners had already run over a mile; B 85% had won two or more races and were rated 106 or higher; C 75% had won a Group race; D 75% had run at Newmarket before.
Short-head up on Mis En Scene when third to Inspiral in the Fillies Mile, and clear until final 100 yards in the Breeders Cup, beaten a length into fourth (Malavath was second). (George Boughey)
ABCD MISE EN SCENE
Back-to-back wins last summer but only fourth behind Inspiral in the Fillies Mile and well behind Malavath in the Breeders Cup. Clearly goes well fresh and dam related to a Guineas winner. (James Ferguson)
ABCD WILD BEAUTY
Fifth in the Fillies Mile behind the original favourite for this 1,000 Guineas, Inspiral, and won the Fred Darling this Spring at Newbury, though it was not a strong field. (Charlie Appleby)
French raider who has won three races on soft-heavy but was half-length second in the Breeders Cup on firm, and smoothly won the Prix Imprudence trial at Deauville this Spring from Zellie. (F-H Graffard)
After a summer hat-trick, won the Prix Marcel Boussac fillies’ 2yo classic (1m heavy) at the Arc meeting. Odds-on defeat by Malavath in the Prix Imprudence (7f heavy) at Deauville three weeks or so back. (Andre Fabre)
Traveled strongly when easily winning a Listed at Dundalk in March. Had run up to Agartha last summer before that one ran second to Discoveries in the Moyglare. (Ger Lyons)
AD PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
Third to Mise En Scene in the Prestige at Goodwood before twice placed behind Inspiral: second in the May Hill, then runner-up again to Inspiral in the Fillies Mile, with Cachet third and Mise En Scene fourth. (Ralph Beckett)
Minding’s sister. She has won at a mile but never raced above maiden level, so has no official rating, albeit she was short-headed first time out by Discoveries, subsequent 111-level winner of the Moyglare. (Aidan O’Brien)
Lowther Stakes runner-up was no match for Tenebrism in the Cheveley Park but, like that one, has raced only at sprint distances so far. (Andrew Balding)
The only undefeated filly in the race, but 2yo form was in sprints: winner of the Cheveley Park, with the Lowther Stakes runner-up, Sandrine, in third. There must be a doubt about her getting the trip, and there’s been no Cheveley Park winner, first past the post, in a 1,000 Guineas since 1993. (Aidan O’Brien)
Short-headed Tuesday in a Curragh maiden last June. Soft ground seems to have beaten her next time but she reversed the form by a narrow victory in the Moyglare. (Jessica Harrington)
Promising winner of her Newmarket maiden 18 days ago and well regarded by her trainer in form (Roger Varian)
Another who has run only in maidens, winning third time of asking (7f, soft, Cork), beating the same filly as Tuesday but by further. Huge potential on breeding as a Galileo sister to Giants Causeway, Gleneagles and Marvellous. (Aidan O’Brien)
SIX-TIME BOOST FOR SUBASTAR
⭕ 1.50 Newmarket Nations Pride is English AW plus Meydan, none of which naturally translates to turf.
Hoo Ya Mai could be good enough, third in the Craven to the Guineas favourite, Native Trail. But the potential of the race is fielded by Roger Varian.
His Sea The Stars colt, Subastar, scored in September on this Rowley Mile, with the frame filled – second, third and fourth – by subsequent winners of six races. BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 2.98 Subastar
RAASEL LOVES HELLUVA GALLOP
⭕ 2.40 Goodwood A course-and-distance sprint winner already at superfast Goodwood is one to be on. I’ll take BETDAQ 5.5.
After winning a boy’s race there in September, Raasel went through the grades, his rating hiked a total of 21lb for five wins in a row, favourite for four of them.
Two were at Nottingham, when ridden by James Doyle, who said of their second win there: ‘They went a helluva gallop but it was pretty much plain sailing. He has a great mind.’
Doyle finally gets a chance to complete the hat–trick on Raasel, after the five-year-old came quietly back from his winter break, fifth at Musselburgh a fortnight ago, his yard scoring five times since then.
Stone Of Destiny is 10lb lower than when he ran in the King George Group-2 sprint here last July but his strike rate is poor (2-33 on turf), suggesting everything has to go his way.
Tone The Baron hasn’t won on turf since 2019 and Clarendon House’s success has been at a lower level.
Live In The Moment dropped out of form after big-field handicap and Listed placings last summer in Yorkshire and best winning form came in 2020 on soft.
YIBIR lOOKS MILES CLEAR..
⭕ 3.35 Newmarket (Jockey Club Stakes) A poor turnout numerically on the first day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, and in quality for this Group 2, with the opposition to Ybir at best 12lb behind in the ratings, though he has a 3lb Group-1 penalty.
That’s for his Breeders Cup win at Del Mar, completing a hat-trick started in the Great Voltigeur, with the Jockey Club Derby at Belmont in between.
.. AND SO DOES HONEYSUCKLE
⭕ 5.25 Punchestown (Champion Hurdle) The magnificent Honeysuckle will be long odds-on for her 16th consecutive victory, including six champion hurdles at Cheltenham, Fairyhouse and here at Punchestown.
The last ride of Robbie Power’s career, Teahupoo, well backed at Cheltenham, has so far needed heavy ground to show his best, and all have seen a rear view of the favourite sometime in their lives.
Echoes In Rain is a CD winner here as Grade-1 winning novice at this meeting a year ago: 32.0 on BETDAQ this morning, or 16.0 in the each-way market, a quarter the odds a place. Second place would pay for my multiples
⭕ 6.00 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) A much better contest than the Champion Hurdle, as State Man steps up in trip from his impressive County Hurdle strike at Cheltenham.
I thought it a good thing for Three Stripe Life until his Cheltenham conqueror, Sir Gerhard, failed at odds on here on Tuesday. But Life has earned his stripes by a responding victory at Aintree over the good benchmark, Might I, and I took 4.1 this morning.
Kilcruit broke his maiden in a big field here in January before taking on the mighty Constitution Hill in the Supreme Novices, finishing third.
1.50 Newmarket (win 10, nap)
BET 5pts win SUBASTAR
2.40 Goodwood (win 20)
BET 4pts win RAASEL
BET 1pt each way ECHOES IN RAIN
6.00 Punchestown (win 10)
BET 3pts win THREE STRIPE LIFE
3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt treble
SUBASTAR 1.50 Newmarket
RAASEL 2.40 Goodwood
YIBIR 3.35 Newmarket
Plus 1pt acca the same three with
HONEYSUCKLE 5.25 Punchestown
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.