DAQMAN TODAY: 39.0 ABOUT FIRST ANTE-POST BET IN 2019: When the weights were published earlier in the week, Daqman declared: McManus Can Fly The National. He didn’t expect to see J P. jumping the 30 monster Aintree fences but, ahead of a race tomorrow, he wants to take a slice of the action about the horse called Fly that McManus owns.
DAQMAN YESTERDAY: 8-1 AMONG FOUR WINS OUT OF FIVE: Daqman had four winners of five yesterday and an overall profit on his singles but the short shots he put in for an acca were let down by his nap, the only loser in his Daq Multiples. Says Daqman: ‘I hope some of you acca’d the four winners, which were all better offers on BETDAQ’:
WON 8-1 THE CULL BANK
WON 10-11 CHRISTOPHER WOOD (from BETDAQ 2.42)
WON 1-3 DREAM DU GRAND VAL
WON 1-4 WE HAVE A DREAM
GOWRAN FLAGS 39.0 BETDAQ BET
Three solid principles of ante-post betting. The horse is bigger in the market than he should be. He’s a better offer on BETDAQ than in the fixed odds lists of any bookmaker. He’s likely to come down in price.
I believe these criteria apply to Anibale Fly for the Grand National, 39.0 on BETDAQ but as low as 25-1 with several bookies, and 19 points higher than my reckoning of his chances.
I put him up on Wednesday alongside Rock The Kasbah and Bristol De Mai, and in front of Elegant Escape, Rathvinden and General Principle, as well treated in my selection of seven from the Aintree weights. So what’s the hurry?
Tomorrow could see him take on the hot favourite for the Gold Cup, Presenting Percy, and Monalee, second home at Cheltenham to Percy in last year’s RSA Chase.
Though the 2m 4f Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park won’t mean much on actual form, the spectacle will create headlines for Cheltenham and Aintree, though they are run up to two miles further.
Anibale Fly was third in the 2018 Gold Cup and fourth in the Grand National. I described him in my Aintree weights analysis as an ‘old-fashioned stayer who just gallops from fence to fence’.
Any show of these strengths tomorrow, any drama the race attaches to any one of the trio, will have ante-post-odds hunters clamouring for an interest.
QUEENOHEARTS THE TURN CARD
1.50 Sandown (Kingmaker Novices’ Chase) Launching Long Run (2010) on his trajectory to Cheltenham gold was the last bit of lofty kingmaking by this race (saved from Warwick; abandoned because of the flu outbreak).
But, though today’s race has only four runners, Kalashnikov – a Daq Multiples banker – and Glen Forsa have Arkle entries. They are 6.2 and 35.0 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange. Dalila Du Seuil has the JLT as her target.
2.25 Sandown According to past results of this race, it’s 4-1 against Queenohearts giving the weight away, with Danse Idol 5lb better for the length and a half that separated them when one-two at Haydock in December (Papagena fourth).
But (there’s always a ‘but’, isn’t there) the saddle slipped on the winner, causing Queenohearts to make mistakes over the last two flights, or she would have won by a wider margin.
When Duhallow Gesture scored at Taunton, she beat a smart French import from the Pau school of future champions but the worry there is that the mare likes to make the running and was caught at Lingfield when trying today’s trip.
Liberty Bella will probably match her for pace, having won twice from the front over 2m 5f. But Queenoheart’s trainer Stuart Edmunds and jockey Ciaran Gethings have a 60% strike rate at Sandown and know all the options on this course.
2.45 Fakenham Rapping isn’t all that new. It’s the sort of stuff Christopher Marlowe was chanting when he was stabbed in a tavern in 1593. I thought this might be a clue to understanding today’s knife-crime.
Meanwhile, Rapper is a 25.0 win and corresponding place bet here, with Henry Daly’s 2-2 record with hurdlers at Fakenham. Pistol Whipped drops in class and should win.
ROSE SET FOR A GOLD HAT-TRICK
3.00 Sandown (Royal Artillery Gold Cup) Rathlin Rose goes for a hat-trick in this for David Pipe and Guy Disney. They won easily both years, and BETDAQ’S 4.3 looked tasty today for that reason.
Though his mark hasn’t changed, the conditions of the race have. He is set 12st 10lb, and will carry 12st 3lb. The danger may be Late Romantic, ridden by Jody Sole who, like Disney, has won this race twice in the decade.
Late Romantic, who has won only in the Points field, was third in the Lincolnshire National over nearly another half-mile, and likes to lead. So does Huff And Puff, a 12-year-old now and running short of the puff.
The soft ground is against Keltus; Shelford hasn’t won for nearly two years and Carlos Du Fruitier hasn’t won over fences, though has kept good company lately and a top amateur is booked.
4.05 Sandown Alan King, who has won this three times in eight seasons, is in champagne form (1121 in the last couple of days alone) but gives himself just one chance of popping the cork today.
He relies on Salmanazar – 12 bottles in one – whose form in soft or heavy, after one or more runs back from a break, is 21114. This is his first chase in almost four years but 14.5 BETDAQ offers are big.
Darius Des Bois is 1222 since wind surgery; Achille has been a winner during Venetia Williams revival; Strong Pursuit (BETDAQ 8.0) has won after a long break before; Scotchtown improved on the last day for a longer trip in first-time visor.
5.45 Newcastle Charlie Appleby is 10-18 with his runners in the last fortnight, some of them at Meydan. His AW form in England in February: 112113. Orchid Star is one for your acca today.
2.25 Sandown (supernap)
BET 20pts win QUEENOHEARTS
2.45 Fakenham (win 30, place win 10)
BET 1.25pts win and 2pts place RAPPER
3.00 Sandown (win 30)
BET 9pts win RATHLIN ROSE
4.00 Sandown (win 20, place 10)
BET 2.85pts win STRONG PURSUIT
BET 1.5pts win and 2pts place SALMANAZAR
2 x 1pt win accas
KALASHNIKOV (1.50 Sandown)
QUEENOHEARTS (2.25 Sandown)
PISTOL WHIPPED and RAPPER (2.45 Fakenham)
RATHLIN ROSE (3.00 Sandown)
ORCHID STAR (5.45 Newcastle)
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