DAQMAN’S 106 POINTS PROFIT AT YORK: Daqman made 90 points profit at York yesterday (106 at the meeting so far) with a bull’s-eye bet, a Fortune Cookie and his fifth winning nap in a row, eight out of the last nine, going 18-11 up on Pricewise with 131 points profit. How does he do it? He says: I’m shooting with huge BETDAQ value, which I’ve highlighted today in the races I’m betting in. Thankyou, BETDAQ!’
WON 8-1 CRUYFF TURN (Bull’s-eye bet at 14.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 7-2 DESERT CROWN (first Fortune Cookie of the Flat)
WON 11-10 AHORSEWITHNONAME (nap, 2.5 on BETDAQ)
EIGHT OUT OF NINE NAPS: 152-POINTS: Ahorsewithnoname powered home to land Daqman’s eighth winning nap from the last nine, five in a row.
WON 11-10 AHORSEWITHNONAME (Thursday, nap, BETDAQ 2.5)
WON 6-4 DILIGENT (Wednesday, nap, BETDAQ 3.3)
WON 8-11 APPIER (Tuesday, nap)
WON 11-8 FRAGRANCE (Monday, 20-point supernap)
WON 10-11 STONE AGE (Sunday, nap, BETDAQ 2.5)
WON 4-1 SOLID STONE (Friday, nap)
WON 6-4 STAR OF INDIA (Thursday, nap)
WON 11-8 EVER GIVEN (Wednesday nap, BETDAQ 4.0)
DESERT CROWN COMES OF AGE
It’s a golden age! A second super-quality colt for this year’s Classics emerged in the prestigious Dante Stakes at York yesterday, as Sir Michael Stoute’s Desert Crown matched Stone Age in striding away with a Derby trial.
I’ve watched Newmarket work alongside that old shrewdie Michael Stoute and seen his eyes sparkle when a good horse gallops by.
And reports I was getting from Newmarket was that the cricket-loving knight was beaming like his favourite Windies batting ace as he surveyed the outfield from Godolphin and Ballydoyle, preparing to hit a massive six right over their heads.
So it was that I declared Desert Crown my first Fortune Cookie of the season and named only one horse, Guineas-tested Royal Patronage, to live with him in the Dante.
We’ve had five favourites for the Derby: in order, Point Lonsdale, Luxembourg, Changingoftheguard, Luxembourg again, then Stone Age and Desert Crown. Now there’s only one, and a master trainer (10 times champion with five Derbys) is back on top for Epsom.
First red flag when they came out yesterday was how little – if anything – morning-favourite El Bodegon had grown.
White Wolf looked a ‘monster’ but still a baby and can make his mark for Saeed Bin Suroor over long distances. Now here’s today’s long-distance Cup:
STRADIVARIUS GIFTED THE CUP
⭕ 3.35 York (Yorkshire Cup) STATS: Stradivarius would be the first three-time winner of this Cup; not even Lester Piggott and Ardross (1981-2) could win more than two.
He would also be only the third eight-year-old winner since 1927, after Sergeant Cecil (2007) and Clever Cookie (2016).
Despite small fields, nine out of the last 10 winners came from stalls 2, 3, 4; none from the one stall, which Stradivarius must somehow fiddle today!
FORM: Stradivarius York form is 11111, and he’s already completed a hat-trick in the Ascot Gold Cup (2018-20). Today he has the firm ground of his last three wins; in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last Spring, and the Lonsdale here and the Doncaster Cup in the autumn.
He’s been beaten in his last two races by Trueshan and is now rated 2lb inferior to Alan King’s holder of the British Champions Long Distance Cup, a race Stradivarius hasn’t won since 2018.
But there’s no Trueshan here, and the Gosden team is now flying; I really can’t see any of these being able to stop him while he is fresh.
All his opponents today have found it difficult to win races: the quartet total two wins from their 20 most recent starts in the published form figures.
Tashkhan was second in the Long Distance Cup, a couple of lengths in front of an end-of-season Stradivarius but receiving 8lb. He improved 36lb as a three-year-old but won only small soft-ground handicaps at Haydock, his rating boosted by Group places.
Receiving 3lb today, that puts him strictly a pound in front of Stradiviarius on the ratings and at the weights, but he needs to have strengthened up on last year, and has never even been placed on firm ground.
Search For A Song Won two Irish St Legers (2019-20) at today’s trip but had to drop to Group 3 to score from six starts last season and all her stakes races have been won from August onwards.
Max Vega Rated the same as he was in June 2020, losing nine times running; second in two Group-3 events, unplaced twice at York, including fifth in the Ebor. Reappeared with victory in another Group 3, the John Porter in mid-April.
Thunderous was six lengths behind Max Vega in the John Porter, then narrowly beaten at the same level in the Ormonde at Chester; these two races after a gelding op. Won the 2020 Dante, which didn’t work out.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE (101%) 2.46 Stradivarius
MIAMI GIRL IS THE MATURE ONE
⭕ 1.50 York Miami Girl (drawn 4) looked very competent in winning at Newmarket, so should handle the wide open spaces of the Knavesmire from a low stall; not one double-figure draw has scored in the decade.
In six sprints at York this week, the winners came out of stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 (twice), with just the one high number.
There’s not a lot of hope from results before and after concerning those involved with Pillow Talk (2) on her second at Nottingham. Much the same applies to Jumbeau (5) at Brighton but he did leave them all for dead.
We don’t know how much the soft ground helped Fix You (3) at Thirsk, and The Twilight Lady (1) scored only narrowly at Ripon.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value (104% total offers) 4.5 Miami Girl
CLASSIC LINE TO FRANKEL FILLY
* Daqman has twice given a one-two this week in only the two attempts: Gaassee to beat Forza Orta, then Desert Crown to beat Royal Patronage. Today he attempts a 1-2-3.
⭕ 2.25 York Perfect News has had a perfect prep for her York-loving trainer, who is 101 on the Knavesmire this week.
The Frankel filly was a handicap winner but close finisher in Group-3 last term, and this Listed is spot on. So was her encouraging Nell Gwyn fourth to Cachet, franked by the winner in the 1,000 Guineas.
But there are two question-marks: the draw (stalls 1 to 5 have won nine out of 10) and whether Grande Dame can ‘do a Desert Crown’ and step up from just the debut win.
John Gosden thinks she is a 1m 2f filly so I expect Frankie Dettori to make use of her here, lowest drawn of the main contenders.
Girl On Film quickened away for just a slap on the shoulder from Rossa Ryan at Newmarket last August.
Ralph Beckett is a top man with fillies but Girl On Film hasn’t raced this year, whereas those that surround her in the market have all been seen; winner, two seconds and a fourth.
Fonteyn was on her toes at Newmarket and ran too freely to stop a late run by another Gosden filly, which suggests she has it all to do against Grande Dame.
Hidden horse could be No Nay Nicki; ran away with her maiden on firm ground last summer; stayed on well at the Lincoln meeting behind dual winner Maljoom.
Though by No Nay Never, a Breeders Cup sprinter, has a stamina-packed dam’s side. The high draw might help rather than hinder.
BETDAQ value (103%) 3.6 Grande Dame, 5.9 Perfect News, 15.5 No Nay Nicki (13.5 e.w.)
1.50 York (win 20)
BET 5.75pts win MIAMI GIRL
2.25 York (win 12, win 10, e.w. win 30)
BET 4.5 GRANDE DAME
BET 2pts win PERFECT NEWS
BET 2pts win and fifth a place NO NAY NICKI
3.35 York (win 12, nap)
BET 8pts win STRADIVARIUS
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.