‘JACK’ HAS DATE WITH DESTINY: Another week. Another chance to start a winning sequence. Another big weekend of racing ahead with two days at Cheltenham, containing more clues to the festival in March. Daqman previews the week as usual, and the horse he picks out this time is Djakadam.
TODAY: Daqman previews a competitive card at Musselburgh with four selections over jumps at the Scottish along with one that he deems as being ”well handicapped” on the level at Kempton Park.
VALUE IN THE STABLE SECOND-STRING
I hit a flat spot at the weekend. But I might have saved a lot of pain in the wallet if I had followed my own rules, with a simple but effective safeguard, which produced Saturday winners at 14-1 and 5-1, and another one yesterday at 100-30.
The winners in question were (Saturday at Sandown) Caracci Apache, Vibrato Valtat and (Sunday at Cork) Felix Yonger. Have you spotted the connection yet?
Yes, all three were the latest in a high strike-rate for second strings trained by the big stables, in this case those of Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins, respectively.
Clean Sheet, Irish Saint (nap) and Twinlight (nap) were my selections in those races, all three the first strings of those stables. All beaten. At 3-1, 4-5 and 13-8, two of them SP favourite. Will I ever learn!
But, before you leap in – heh, there’s a system there, isn’t there! – I’m not advocating that you ignore the first string and back only the second every time. What I’m saying is, make sure you have a pound on those big-odds second-strings, just in case.
Like all ‘good ideas’, backing second strings must be tested over time (system doing well; send more money). But it stands to reason that you should at least have a saver on the stable outsider.
After all, since it will be bigger odds, you are likely to show a long-term profit, which you will struggle to make on the favourites.
CHELTENHAM A MUST FOR DJAKADAM
Djakadam needs a run at Cheltenham. There is not doubt that Willie Mullins’ five-year-old is a classy individual but the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury was a trip too far.
A more obvious target now is to drop back in distance to the Ryanair at Cheltenham in March. Djakadam could stay at home for the Lexus over the Christmas period.
But I think the essential is to get him back at Cheltenham and a second crack at the fences, with the Ryanair the long-term aim. Yes, second crack: he’s been there before.
He put in a decent first circuit in the Golden Miller Novices’ Chase last March, now known at the festival as the JLT, but crashed out of the race with four to jump.
The one thing about the Hennessy is that Djakadam looked much more the mature jumper and that he should perform reasonably well in a big field was excellent experience.
Now he has to go back to Cheltenham (Saturday?) and impress Willie with his jumping and expertise on the championship course. After all, there will be more in the Mullins’ camp in the queue for the Ryanair and all other big races in March.
This week is a quiet week until Cheltenham Friday and Saturday, but weekdays have been profitable recently, with a winning streak of eight lays last week and sequences of four, five, six, then eight winners in a day the week before.
* Pictured: Djakadam (A TOUCH OF CLASS)
TIPS OVER JUMPS AND ON THE FLAT
MUSSELBURGH The Scottish track has what can only be described as a weak set of races this afternoon but they are very competitive nonetheless.
The two and a half mile Handicap Chase doesn’t have that much depth and with question marks over Sleep In First and Oscatara, Final Assault appears to be the most solid option.
Lucinda Russell looks to have found a really nice opportunity for this son of Beneficial and I think he is going to be very hard to beat.
There is a similar story in the next at 1.45 and with not a lot of substantial form to go on, Snapping Turtle looks to be the best option. Callum and Donald Whillans’s gelding still has something to prove over the trip but this looks to be a slightly weaker race than some of his more recent runs and he is taken to score.
Another very open Handicap at 2.20 over two and a half miles and there are several to chose from in here.
Desoto County ran in some decent enough Novice Hurdles throughout last season and this is his handicap debut. However, an opening mark of 123 looks to be high enough for the Hernando gelding and this could be tough.
Instead a chance is taken on Yesyoucan who takes a marked drop in class from the likes of the Coral Cup, a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle at Aintree and some really competitive Handicaps at Carlisle and Haydock. Since these, he has dropped to 7lbs below his last winning mark over Hurdles but has won off 139 over Fences and this looks a really good option.
My final selection at Musselburgh comes in the penultimate race, a three mile Handicap Chase and despite the small field, this looks quite tough once again.
Blue Kascade, Just Awake and Benefit In Kind all look to have similar chances while, top weight, Lady Of Verona cannot be completely discounted despite the likelihood of her needing a career best to score.
Shady Sadie looks to be the one however having beaten Foot The Bill last time out. She then went on to a good run at Catterick last week to frank the form. All in all, she is a very consistent sort and off a mark of 85, there could be a little more left in the tank for her here.
KEMPTON There is one horse that has taken my eye at Kempton Park this afternoon, in the 3.40 over two miles. Clive Cox and Adam Kirby team up with Bowberry who has some bits of form over shorter trips, but with the step up to two miles, he could prove to be a handicap blot and is worth a bet.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Stakes represent chance from 1 to 10, which would be a banker)
BET 8pts win (Nap) FINAL ASSAULT (1.15 Kempton)
BET 6pts win SNAPPING TURTLE (1.45 Musselburgh)
BET 2pts win and place YESYOUCAN (2.20 Musselburgh)
BET 5pts win SHADY SADIE (2.50 Musselburgh)
BET 4pts win BOWBERRY (3.40 Kempton)
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