DERBY WINNER, ECLIPSE WINNER AND NAPS-DOUBLE WEEKEND: There’s no hiding place from Daqman’s darn-hot tipping. After a Saturday bull’s-eye nap at 4-1 and his 1-2-3 in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, he hopped over to Deauville and Hamburg yesterday for three winners out of four races, including the German Derby winner and another nap, Too Darn Hot (WON 4-5), in the day’s big race, the Prix Jean Prat, for a 34-point profit on the day.
WON 4-5 TOO DARN HOT (Fortune Cookie and nap, Prix Jean Prat)
WON 9-1 JOPLIN (Deauville)
WON 2-1 LACCARIO (German Derby, Hamburg)
WON 4-1 MOJITO (bull’s-eye nap at 7.2 on BETDAQ)
WON 4-6 ENABLE (Fortune Cookie, Coral-Eclipse Stakes
(2ND 11-4 Magical and 3RD 17-2 Regal Reality in correct order)
44-20! NOW DAQMAN RACES 285 POINTS CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: Too Darn Hot was feature-race winner number 44, taking him 285 points clear of Pricewise to 10-point stakes with a score of 44-20 in the Racing Post’s selected races.
➡️ Supernaps: 14 out of 18 (158 points up to 20 point stakes)
➡️ Daqman 44 Pricewise 20 (285 points clear to 10-unit stake)
➡️ Bull’s-eye naps (5-10) 201 points up to recommended stakes
Today: How good is Enable? How does she rank with the great horses of the past? Daqman drives you down the road of racing history.
ENABLE IS SURELY ONE OF THE BEST
I used to run ‘computer races’. Their titles were something like: best Derby winner, horse of the century; that stuff. People actually bet on the outcome, until the Jockey Club, as was, decided that my computer could be ‘deemed a racecourse’ and I didn’t have permission to hold ‘meetings’.
A couple of boffins, with me as the form man, fed in the historical facts algorithmically as they might call it today. We also entered a style of running for each horse, and the computer related one style to another so that they interacted and the race could be ‘run’ with pacemakers and hold-up horses.
Snag was – and still is – that the horses that won their big races by wide margins tended to be overrated, and always win the computer races. Apart from the difficulty of relating one Classic year to another, how do you quantify courage in close finishes?
Feeding in wide-margin winners meant that computer outcomes usually featured Sea Bird, Ribot and Shergar. Perhaps underrated among the ‘easy’ Derby winners was Troy because the Press all said it was a poor field. How bad is a good winner in a poor field?
‘Horses with the longest winning sequence’ falls down as the ultimate test because Kincsem ‘beat nothing’ 54 times in a row in the 19th century, Winx (33 straight wins) stayed home in Australia, and Frankel (14-14) was held back from racing beyond 10 furlongs or so.
Some horses get high ratings in the Press and become fashionable or ‘world beaters’. So there were red faces when Nijinsky was beaten at 4-11 by Lorenzaccio, and even the old epithet – ‘good horses are allowed to lose one race’ – didn’t hold water. Nijinsky lost twice.
Getting back to the present day, how can you accept headlines like: Cracksman joins wondermare Winx as world’s top-ranked racehorse?
In fact, when the IFHA – international racing authority – published world’s best 2018 rankings: 130 Cracksman and Winx, Enable was given just 125. You mean she’d have had five-lengths start if they’d met? No contest!
In 2013, how could Black Caviar be 130 (sprinter), the same level as dual Arc winner Treve, yet both of them 10 (repeat 10) behind Frankel? It’s all relative, isn’t it.
Some would rate the speed of Black Caviar or Frankel superior to Dancing Brave’s raking run, Alleged’s power finish, or the stamina of Le Moss and Yeats.
Some would seek some future reassessment which would include their prowess at stud, in which case Northern Dancer and Galileo would always come out on top.
Enable, only the third filly to win the Eclipse, has now won £8.5m, and will try to become the first of either sex to win three Arcs, after a King George (July 27) clash with Anthony Van Dyck, and then the International (or Yorkshire Oaks).
The message is: follow the best horses in training; make them your Fortune Cookies; whether or not they are the best of all time, they are the best bets.
There once was a survey which showed that 73% of low-level winners are unable to win their next race; 35% never win another race! Yet they are the first pick of many punters.
Are you really going to ignore top horses because of their odds, yet take similar odds about bad horses just because they won a race?
Tomorrow: Fortune Cookies for the July Meeting and beyond.
WARNING: FIRE ALARM BELLS RING AGAIN
3.00 Ayr Mark Johnston believes in striking whilst the iron is still hot, or, in this case whilst the fire is still hot.
He saddles Warning Fire who makes a quick reappearance after winning well at Haydock on Friday. The filly made all the running and quickened up nicely a furlong from home to win by 3 1/2 lengths.
She shouldn’t be troubled by either the resulting 6lb penalty or the drop back in trip.
The main danger here is likely to come from the consistent Jordan Electrics who is another that likes to race prominently. He might however be in the grip of the handicapper and was beaten off this mark at Hamilton last time out.
3.15 Worcester Unusual to see a bumper in the middle of a race card but that’s the case here at Worcester. There is little form to go on but No Quarter Asked set a fair standard on his debut effort at Perth when runner-up to Equus Dancer.
With normal improvement he could prove hard to beat and his trained Peter Bowed has saddled three winners in the past fortnight.
The danger might come from Heart Of A Lion representing Alan King. He has an eye-catching pedigree but it might be that the experience counts today – hence the preference for No Quarter Asked.
7.20 Windsor Best race on the Windsor card is this class 3 handicap. Just six runners but it looks very competitive.
Pass The Gin heads the market for the Andrew Balding stable that may just have peaked a few weeks ago. The yard have only had 1 winner from their last 33 runners having prior to that been red hot.
The overall profile of Pass The Gin probably makes you want to look elsewhere too, with just the one win from 12 starts.
The Richard Hannon trained Wedding Date comes here on the back of a win at Newmarket and has a big chance off a 4lb higher mark.
I prefer though to take a chance with Dark Shadow. The Clive Cox trained runner can be excused his effort at Bath last time out when fourth, as he met troubled in running and was denied his chance of notching up a hat-trick. He remains progressive though and could resume winning ways here.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, SUPERNAP at SP)
SUPERNAP BET 20pts win WARNING FIRE (3.00 Ayr)
BET 12.6pts win NO QUARTER GIVEN (3.15 Worcester)
BET 3.8pts win DARK SHADOW (7.20 Windsor)
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