DAQMAN FESTIVAL BAG 104.50 POINTS: Shock defeats for the odds-on pair Facile Vega and Blue Lord on Day 2 at the Dublin Festival yesterday but a canny Daqman kept his stakes very low, except to oppose Honeysuckle. Sure enough, State Man gave him the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup double and preserved his profit. He finished 104.50 up.
Leopardstown Sunday: profit on the day 1.50 points
WON 6-5 STATE MAN (Irish Champion Hurdle)
WON (w/p 4th 50-1) ANNA BUNINA
Leopardstown Saturday: profit on the day 103 points
WON 10-11 GERRI COLOMBE (nap) from 2.46 on BETDAQ
WON 6-1 GREEN BOOK (Fortune Cookie, 8.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 30-100 GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Irish Gold Cup)
(Stattler 2nd 11-2 for a Fortune Cookies one-two)
MONDAY NAP: Daqman heads to Carlisle for his nap. The meeting passed a second inspection this morning.
TOP MAN STATES CHAMPION CASE
Race of the century. How many times have you seen that headline? I’m betting you’ll see it again to bill the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham.
State Man followers will scent victory after he dismissed Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle yesterday.
But the layers hold on to their Cheltenham favourite, Constitution Hill, still odds on despite the confidence with which State Man made all yesterday.
As defeats at 4-1 on (Blue Lord), 3-1 on (Lossiemouth) and 4-9 (Facile Vegas) showed at Leopardstown, nothing on four legs is invincible. I steered well clear of them.
And I used collateral form to show that Honeysuckle faced a hiding yesterday after her bubble burst at Fairyhouse in December.
With Constitution Hill versus State Man, there’s a form fallacy to be found in that both have reached the top by beating ex-champions who are finally fading out.
Constitution Hills’ senior success at Grade-1 level has come with 12-lengths (Fighting Fifth, November) and 17 lengths (Christmas Hurdle) defeats of Epatante, who was last champion of Cheltenham in 2020 and who subsequently ran second or third three times in a row to Honeysuckle.
State Man’s stardom comes with the comfortable taking of Honeysuckle’s scalp yesterday, giving her 7lb.
These comparisons alone suggest we should be digging deeper before dismissing either one of them or parting with our hard-earned on the other.
CARLISLE COURSE FORM COUNTS
⭕ 3.15 Carlisle Maid O’Malley was a heavily-backed scorer by more than five lengths in this race last year after winning at Wetherby, and was put up a total of 13lb.
But the handicapper lumped another 6lb on her back for falling in the Mares Chase at the Cheltenham Festival! Yes, a penalty after falling.
But, to be more precise, though she made several mistakes, jumping right throughout, she disputed the lead and had every chance until coming down two out.
She has shown poor form since, dropped only a couple of pounds, but – with returns here of 212 – she is obviously at home on the turning right-hand Carlisle course.
Haute Estime’s third in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) at the Grand National meeting in April has also kept her ratings high; modest chasing performances since.
La Renommee won only on a provincial track in France but also ran well at Cheltenham, second in a Grade 3 mares’ juvenile last Spring. Maybe this step up in trip is what she needs.
Placed in her last nine chases, with success at Newbury and then the Punchestown Festival in April, Lilith is also high in the handicap now.
So, Im’ taking course form in this race via Maid O’Malley and in the next with Malpas.
⭕ 3.45 Carlisle Malpas is 103112 at Carlisle, with Brian Hughes in the saddle every time Donald McCain’s eight-year-old has won.
The ratings say he’s one of five horses within a couple of pounds of each other but he’s the only CD winner. He just won’t want it too soft. BETDAQ 9.7
FONTWELL: FREDDIE ACEY-DEUCEY
⭕ 4.30 Fontwell This is Freddie Gingell’s favourite track, with two winners and four seconds from six rides.
He claims off Tamaris, who has twice performed well on the course and was primed for this race with a run on the Flat recently.
Two wins in 10 weeks has put Sawpit Sienna up 11lb and Force De Frap is raised 17lb for back-to-back success.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.2 Tamaris
⭕ 6.00 Wolverhampton Charles Hills, striking at 43% (but 50% with Kieran Shoemark in the saddle), opts for a change of pace with So Chic.
Her close pedigree suggests 7f on the Flat, with another relative a 2m hurdle winner.
But down the dam’s side is a 5f Listed winner, a Group-placed 6f winner and a Group-1 sprinter, Profitable.
Profitable won the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot from the Exceed And Excel colt, Cotai Glory, trained by none other than Charles Hills.
So Chic is also by Exceed And Excel, so you can see the reasoning behind this sudden drop back to 5f. You can bet 9.2 on BETDAQ that it pays off!
DAQMAN’S BETS
3.15 Carlisle (win 10, nap)
BET 5pts win MAID O’MALLEY
3.45 Carlisle (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win MALPAS
4.30 Fontwell (win 20)
Bet 4pts win TAMARIS
6.00 Wolverhampton (win 12)
BET 2.5pts win SO CHIC
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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