CRACKING INTERNATIONAL DAY FOR DAQMAN WITH 7-2 NAP: Daqman had a cracking Sunday with winners in four countries, among them the big races in France and Germany, and including a 7-2 nap. His bets made a profit on the day to recommended stakes of 55.82, among the proceeds a 7-1 handicap winner in Ireland doubled with a winning two-year-old in England.
WON 7-1 CRACKING NAME (Tipperary)
WON 7-2 ROMANISED (Prix Jacques le Marois, Deauville)
WON 19-10 FRENCH KING (Berlin Grand Prix, Hoppegarten)
WON 4-7 SURF DANCER (Leicester, doubled with Cracking Name)
THAT’S THREE WINNING BEST BETS IN THE LAST FOUR DAYS: His winning nap for the third day out of four also crossed the Irish Sea and the English Channel for best bets in three countries.
WON 7-2 ROMANISED (big-race nap, Deauville Sunday)
WON 11-10 ADDEYBB (supernap, Haydock Saturday)
WON 10-11 LATROBE (supernap, Leopardstown Thursday)
IT ALL ADDS UP TO 56 WINNING RETURNS OVER PRICEWISE: Romanised was tipped by both Daqman and Pricewise, giving them 83 strikes this Flat season – 56 to Daqman – in their value-betting challenge.
Daqman 56 Pricewise 27 Daqman 333 points clear to 10pt stakes
Bull’s-eye naps (6-12 for 50% strike rate) 264 points, recommended stakes
Supernaps (18-25 for 72% strike rate) 138 points up to 20pt stakes
READING BETWEEN THE FORM LINES
Look for hidden meaning behind the form figures. If you are following horses, like Fortune Cookies, you have decided to bet blind to the other runners and the conditions on the day. Fair enough, if you make a level-stakes profit.
But it’s amazing how many punters back their pick when they really mean the horse has chosen itself (it’s one you follow; you always back a certain trainer or jockey; or you’re backing the horse because ‘it’s a good price’).
You should research the whole race and you should try to create ‘future ratings’ or find a benchmark from which to compare each runner. But, if you don’t always have enough time, simply research the form figures.
The easiest way forward is to start with the favourite. If you don’t have much time for analysis, set the favourite up; then try to knock him down!
Check out his form and his record in the conditions. He may have form figures of 1002310001 when the 102311 part of those figures were six races on soft ground. Is it soft today? It is.
It’s a mile race you’re looking at. The 1002310001 contains five races over a mile, with the following returns: 00311. So the favourite looks progressive at a mile on soft.
Now look at the past performance of his opponents. How many of them have won over a mile; how many on soft? None of them; or just one or two? He’s not a favourite to oppose in a hurry then, is he!
But take the same mile race and this time the going is good to firm, for which his returns read 2000. Not so good; likely vulnerable, in fact.
If you are keen on something that appears to be big value in BETDAQ, take an early offer and play another card later. Find something else in the race, using your form-figure method, to act as a stakes saver (covering your first bet) or place a second bet.
To be on safe ground, stake your bets to win a fixed amount, as I do in the column every day. Different stakes and different targets don’t work, unless – again as I do – they align themselves with the quality of the race, or your ability to win that sort of race (see last week). The better the race, the better your chances.
If your form-figure assessments go against a horse, don’t be in a hurry to ditch him altogether, without digging deeper. Example: I did my ratings and thought Prince Des Sables (Haydock, 6f, August 8) should be favourite, yet she was offered at 13.0.
She was with Kevin Ryan, a top sprint trainer; she’d won four in a row last summer; she’d scored off today’s mark; she’d won two in class 2 (this was class 3); she’d had two recent runs, so should be fit.
Against her was her form on the prevailing firmish ground (430); her winning form was on soft and good to soft.
But, on deeper investigation, I discovered that she was a first foal of a tough mare who had won on all sorts of ground. The clincher was that progeny of the dam’s sire had a 100% record on good to firm. Princes Des Sables won eight lengths.
B FIFTY TWO CLEARED TO LAND
5.15 Catterick The North Yorkshire track is in centre stage this afternoon after Ayr was called off. There are a couple of very short priced favourites on a trappy card. Patience might be the order of the day and waiting for the finale over the fast five furlong course.
B Fifty Two is now a ten-year-old but retains plenty of speed as he proved here last week when winning over this trip, quite cosily in the end.
He races under a 4lb penalty for that success and the ground will be a little softer but local trainer Marjorie Fife looks to have identified a really good opportunity for a quick follow-up. If anything, this looks a weaker contest. Normal Equilibrium seems to have gone backwards since a promising reappearance at Doncaster and a bigger danger may come from Seamster who goes well here, handles soft ground but at 12 he really is the old boy of the party and not terribly reliable at the moment.
7.00 Windsor A class three handicap is the best race on the Windsor card and Caradoc looks to have a sound chance.
Pilot Oisin Murphy is increasingly looking like champion jockey elect and there could still be further improvement to come from Caradoc who has only had the six racecourse starts, winning two of them.
He wasn’t disgraced in what looked a stronger class 3 contest at Newmarket last time out when fourth to Rise Hall. He might have finished even closer but for getting involved in a bumping match.
Over the same trip tonight he can see off the challengers which look to be headed by Mordred who was a good fourth at Goodwood last time out and represents Richard Hannon who has averaged a winner a day over the last two weeks.
8.50 Wolverhampton Avenue Foch hasn’t shown much (including over course and distance last time out) in two starts since joining James Fanshawe from Luca Cumani’s yard and needs to show much more. I would find it hard to support him as favourite, even in this relatively modest company,
Preference is for Arthur Pendragon who travelled really well at Lingfield last time out and the step back in trip could be the key.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all staked to win 10 points)
BET 6.5pts win (nap) B FIFTY TWO (5.15 Catterick)
BET 3.5pts win CARADOC (7.00 Windsor)
BET 2.8pts win ARTHUR PENDRAGON (8.50 Wolverhampton)
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