(THISTLE)CRACKING KEMPTON CARD: Boxing Day was the traditional day for giving Christmas fare, and this year racing has saved up a sensational gift-wrapped afternoon of top-class events at Kempton Park, featuring a sensational King George, for which Thistlecrack is favourite.
FORTUNE-COOKIES’ YANKEE: Weeks ago Daqman searched out the best for his list of Fortune Cookies and you could do worse than follow them this afternoon, including in the big two of King George and Christmas Hurdle:
JENKINS (12.55 Kempton)
BELLSHILL (2.00 Limerick)
FRODON (2.05 Kempton)
THISTLECRACK (3.15 Kempton)
BETDAQ IS THE PLACE FOR VALUE: But Daqman is also hungry to find big-odds value on the day, and there’s plenty to be found if you stick to the amazing BETDAQ orange of overrounds lower than the combined list of bookmakers in Pricewise. Daqman, 6-2 up on the Racing Post tipster, meets his challenge in the 1.30, 2.05 and 3.15 Kempton and saves his bull’s-eye bet for the last race.
JENKINS CAN JUMP RIGHT TO THE TOP
It’s Tizzard v Tizzard. And the outcome is the same: a new champion of steeplechasing to rank alongside the best.
Will it be the old king, Cue Card, or his stablemate, Thistlecrack, the young pretender who was best in the World over hurdles in March?
Between them they have won 27 races against 30 for the opposition. Seldom, if ever, have five chasers brought 57 successes to the tapes of any tournament in England, a small field in quantity that is huge in quality.
12.55 Kempton With 16 winners on this card in the decade, Nicky Henderson should set you free of the losing habit, cold turkey right from the off. His form figures in this one are 114F1, and he has a top-class repesentative in Jenkins.
This big Azamour gelding has a huge engine but needs a decent surface. He should go right to the top, if he can improve his jumping ability. He managed to survive his errors at Newbury and to win impressively.
A Group performer up to 2m on the Flat, Glaring can be expected to need at least 2m 4f over hurdles but he, too, is set the task to improve his jumping over the faster trip. Elgin’s bumper form hasn’t worked out and he looked babyish in his maiden-hurdle sucess.
THE HENDERSON CHRISTMAS PRESENT
1.30 Kempton Henderson has won this five times, with a form sequence of 11-1P10P1. The ratings have the top five in the handicap within a range of 4lb, including his Gold Present.
But the Presenting gelding left his hurdles form well behind with a pulverising gallop at Doncaster, first time over fences.
The Tizzard’s Sizing Tennessee is chasing a bit late in life but we have only Cheltenham to judge him on so far, and he could do better on this flat track.
San Benedeto won twice in the summer and has been kept going while the ground is decent, with solid enough performances but making him more a benchmark than a future star.
Two Taffs is bred for the chasing game, by Flemensfirth out of a Saddlers Hall mare and had some good hurdles form, but this is a tough task on the debut.
Poker School is what he is, but is getting around a stone from the top three and Richard Johnson rides him for the first time.
Max Ward was put in his place at Sandown but Remiluc, half-brother to a French cross-country champion, could improve for the step up in trip.
As ever, when a stable sets out its stall at a meeting where it does well, I like to use one horse as insurance cover for another, and Gold Present at 4.7 was an ideal BBETDAQ offer to balance the books if Jenkins is beaten.
FLY TRAP FOR FRODON IN STAR CHASE
2.05 Kempton (Kauto Star Novices’ Chase) My jumping find (with the accent on ‘jumping’) that put a 14-1 injection into most of my betting lists, Frodon is another who appreciates the better ground, though he hung on bravely when it was soft at Cheltenham.
He’s only four and I doubt he will have a second half to his season unless he soon takes a holiday before preparing for the festivals. This clearly looked an opportunity not to be missed.
But, as a 20f Grade-B hurdles winner at the Punchestown Festival, Anibale Fly should appreciate this step up to 3m over fences, and could be anything.
Might Bite beat nothing well at Doncaster. The jury is still out on Virgilio, described as ‘very, very good’ by his connections but pulled up behind Frodon at Wincanton.
Minella Daddy, who has been raised 15lb in 10 weeks, beat a quality field for the Ascot Silver Cup and, as one who likes to be up there from the start, will force Frodon to pull out the stops again.
His Ditcheat stablemate Present Man jumps well, or at least he does on a right-handed track, but he has to go t’other way round here and be a 7lb better horse than Frodon into the bargain.
MARK YANWORTH AS THE IMPROVER
2.40 Kempton (Christmas Hurdle) Trainer Henderson was invincible in this (111144) until a ‘monster’ came along, Faugheen having beaten his best out of sight two years running.
And this time around he can only bring back a nine-year-old, his 2013 winner, My Tent Or Yours, who has been the bridesmaid almost since that day. His form figures of 2322332 can be forgiven against Annie Power and Vroum Vroum Mag but include defeats the last twice by Ch’Tibello and another old timer, The New One.
The New One was well outpointed by Faugheen in this a year ago but is still officially 22lb better than Ch’Tibello and 10lb in front of Yanworth.
Yanworth’s jumping will be tested, dropping back to 2m but the small field will help and he is the improver. It could be close, and I’m reducing my stakes.
KING THISTLECRACK CAN DOMINATE
3.15 Kempton (King George) Henderson has had just two wins – both with Long Run – dwarfed by the run of Kauto Star (five wins) and Silviniaco Conti (two), giving Paul Nicholls a super seven.
But last year, the ever burgeoning stable of Colin Tizzard broke through again with Cue Card and who would bet against his dynamic duo this afternoon: the defending champion plus his scintillating stablemate, Thistlecrack, the World Hurdle winner seemingly destined for the top over fences.
Silviniaco Conti is back for a third title but pulled up behind Cue Card a year ago and was 42 lengths adrift of that one on the last day in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock.
Pricewise rarely gets it right ante-post (he’s usually just posing in his bookmakers shopwindow) but he has the drop on me here as he will claim 8-1 Thistlecrack, taken – or said to have been taken – well before most of our Christmas presents were bought. Good luck to him.
I’m playing with smaller stakes but hoping to multiply my bets within my Daq Multiples. The King George verdict is Thistlecrack, as the one most likely to enjoy the small field.
He can shake off Josses Hill (doubtful stamina) if his jumping matches his pace, leaving the others to play catch-up, not an easy task for older horses on a sound surface; Cue Card has had some hard races recently and Silviniaco Conti is playing for place money.
CHRISTMAS SPIRIT TO END THE DAY
3.45 Kempton Doesyourdogbite, who would complete a four-timer for four-year-olds in this, was a big drifter at Hereford but dominated the race.
That could prove expensive here, unless he really is as good as a 132. The four-year-old winners in the last three years have scored off 121, 123 and 127.
Dog’s 132 is the same mark as Instant Karma for running up to Sternrubin in a big-field Listed at Ascot in October (Ch’Tibello behind). Can Barry Geraghty coax this Flat-bred into staying 21f?
Of the two other four-year-olds, Omessa Has could improve in a tongue-tie. Southport has been beaten twice since his maiden and it’s thought that he needs soft-heavy ground.
Lisheen Prince probably needs more time but Spiritofthegames can do better than at Cheltenham, now back on a sharper, flat course. I took 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Moscato, fourth in both the Ascot Stakes and the Northumberland Plate, would need 3m over hurdles on that evidence, but will enjoy the top of the ground and looks booked for a place again.
DAQMAN BETS (each bet staked to win 30 points, except where stated).
GOLD BANKER: BET 30pt win (nap) JENKINS (12.55 Kempton)
BET 8pts win GOLD PRESENT (1.30 Kempton)
BET 8pts win FRODON (2.05 Kempton)
BET (to win 10) 7pts win YANWORTH (2.40 Kempton)
BET (to win 10) 9pts win THISTLECRACK (3.15 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 8pts win and place SPIRITOFTHEGAMES (3.45 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 2pts win treble: JENKINS (12.55 Kempton), YANWORTH (2.40 Kempton) and THISTLECRACK (3.15 Kempton)
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