THIS YEAR’S CHAMPIONS: DAQMAN COUNTDOWN TOMORROW: Stardate: Ascot, Saturday, October 16. Five champions to be crowned, six if you include the still-undecided jockeys’ title battle between Oisin Murphy and William Buick. Daqman’s preview, race by race, starts tomorrow, culminating on Saturday with the Mile triple header of Palace Pier, Baaeed and The Revenant.
NEXT YEAR’S CHAMPIONS: DAQMAN PUTS UP 6.0 BETDAQ BET: The Irish-jockeys’ championship is already decided with a record total and the trials for two-year-olds has provided potential Classic champions for 2022. But, as ever, Daqman is looking for value and he’s not with the hot favourite but recommends a 6.0 BETDAQ bet for the 2,000 Guineas, ante-post.
KEANE IS THE ALL-TIME WINNER
⚠️ HEADS UP Three weeks to go, and Colin Keane has smashed the all-time record for riding most winners in an Irish Flat season. He moved on Joseph O’Brien’s 126 record, made in 2013 when he beat Mick Kinane’s 115 total of 1995.
Then Keane hit 127 with Power Under Me and went further ahead to 128 winners so far with Pretty Boy Floyd at the Curragh yesterday. His total earnings this year passed 3.2m euros.
TAKE COROEBUS ON GUINEAS TRAIL
He’s got to join weight-watchers. Native Trail was an early foal and, hopefully, hasn’t got much more growing to do but those who have backed him for the 2,000 Guineas should be warned:
▪️ He’s already as heavy as heavyweight Derby winner, Adayar.
▪️ That flat spot he hit in the Dewhurst could be accentuated
Native Trail had to be gathered up and rebalanced to exert in the final furlong on Saturday and, for a moment, until he engaged an extra gear through all four legs in concert, odds-on backers feared he wouldn’t make it.
That he was quickly ironed out and went away from them caused the Guineas betting stampede but, come the colts’ first Classic, this problem will inevitably be accentuated with any further growth; gallopers don’t win the Guineas unless they are a Frankel freak with seemingly endless speed from the front.
Another Godolphin volcano, who looked like a three-year-old when he was two, Pinatubo landed the same double of National Stakes – by nine lengths – and Dewhurst (2019): he was overtaken by late developers in both the Guineas and the St James’s Palace Stakes the following season.
The one I prefer for 2022 is Native Trail’s burgeoning stablemate Coroebus, who travels so, so smoothly and has surprised with his late acceleration off such a cruising speed. All he needs now is to strengthen up for a finish and he is the ideal Guineas colt.
His winter is putting him away, keeping him healthy and lightly exercising in the New Year, with serious work as the trials and the Guineas approach.
He should emerge with the right amount of growth, muscles ready to be honed in the Craven Stakes. In human terms, Native Trail can have no Christmas.
There will be no pause in guarding his weight, checking the back bones that still can grow, and those which bear the weight of a big animal, even to x-raying his legs.
Some horses don’t reach full height until aged four; some don’t train on at all.
Where Coroebus is a sleek motor-launch, Native Trail needs catamaran stabilising and time to deliver thrust through his hull (did I say ‘hulk’?)
The problem they have with Native Trail is that, on breeding, he is not going to get more than a mile though, by his size and late gear-change, you’d think he was a Derby horse. My best guess is that he’ll fall somewhere in between.
ANTE-POST (2022): 6.0 Coroebus in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
⭕ 7.30 Kempton Every winner will see seem like a double this week for Oisin Murphy and William Buick and the reigning champ should add to his current lead with
Cu Chulainn here.
The Brian Meehan trained runner exchanged hands for a whopping 425,000gns as a yearling and shaped with enormous promise on his debut at Lingfield when chasing home the favourite Emblem Empire.
The extra furlong should suit here and with normal improvement he should prove hard to beat.
Chief BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE market rival Mawkeb showed promise on debut here last November but disappointed subsequently at Nottingham on the turf when beaten 12 lengths. It’s hard to know what to expect after that effort but the positive point is that his trainer Owen Burrows is in good form.
David Pipe’s Stratford bumper winner Ocean Heights ran surprisingly well when a 33/1 fifth at Lingfield but will surely need a longer trip and I can’t see him troubling the flat bred types.
PEARL’S A WINNER
⭕ 8.00 Kempton Officially a class 5 fillies handicap but actually looks a fair deal better than that and will take some winning.
Beloved (Oisin Murphy) will have her supporters as she bids for a first win after a big run at Newbury last time out when tried in a hood for the first time but it’s hard to build a big case for her given her sole previous effort on the all-weather at Wolverhampton was quite modest and, for a maiden, she is quite high in the weights.
Preference goes to the Henry Candy trained Pearl Bay who was a Salisbury winner earlier in the season and shaped well at Sandown on her handicap debut – she is closely matched with Alezan (second) on that form but might just have the greater scope than Alezan who has raced 21 times versus just four for Pearl Bay.
MY EVALUATION IS COMPLETE
⭕ 8.30 Kempton The stayers close the Kempton card and the Hugo Palmer trained Good Soul attempts to repeat his C&D win from last month with a 4lb rise in the weights. Palmer is 0-15 though with his recent runners.
Continuing the theme of the night, Oisin Murphy has a big chance on Restitution who is now up in trip after his second here (beaten 12 lengths mind you) last month.
The Royal runner Evaluation has the most ticks in the box though and can land another winner for Sir Michael Stoute (4 winners from last 15).
He brings solid form to the table and can turn the tables on Good Soul.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 10.0pts win (nap) CU CHULAINN (7.30 Kempton)
BET 1.9pts win PEARL BAY (8.00 Kempton)
BET 3.2pts win EVALUATION (8.30 Kempton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.