112 POINTS UP FROM FOUR WINNING DAYS IN A ROW: Yes, he’s done it again! And so has BETDAQ. Another profitable day for Daqman – his fourth in a row – and yet more big value from Betdaq, as our man’s profits soared to 112 points.
18 WINNING BANKERS OUT OF 22: Daqman brought his total of winning bankers to 18 from 22 in 2013 with Doctor Harper (WON 1-5) but it was success with Apache Stronghold (WON 9-2 from 7.2 morning offers) that proved BETDAQ value yet again.
FIVE WAYS TO A CHRISTMAS BOX: Christmas is just a month to the day away, so line up with BETDAQ value now and follow Daqman’s five ways to winning:
1 THE BULL’S-EYE BET: Daqman has just launched a bet which is staked to win 50 points. There’s one today at Ludlow.
2 BIG-RACES: BIG VALUE: That’s his head-to-head challenge to Pricewise in the quality races, in which he regularly raises his stakes to win 30 points.
3 SHORT-ODDS BANKERS: How to make a profit from very short-odds winners
4 THE LAYS WAY: How to make a profit from short-odds losers.
5 DAQ MULTIPLES: The mix and match way to boost your earnings.
67 POINTS PROFIT FROM THE WEEKEND’S BIG VALUE BETTING
There was a Mad-ning half-length in it! Mad Brian (2nd 7-1 from 9.2 on BETDAQ) was just run out of it in the Troytown Chase at Navan yesterday.
That leaves the score at Daqman 3, Pricewise 0, with a Daqman profit to one-point level stakes of +12.50 from eight bets, and with Pricewise -6.00 from six bets.
But, with Daqman’s master staking-plan, he raised 76 points profit in the four Saturday races from win-30 bets at BETDAQ offers, and was +67 overall in the Pricewise races this weekend.
WON 6-1 Gevrey Chambertin (9.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 Sydney Paget (7.2 on BETDAQ)
WON 3-1 More Of That (4.3 on BETDAQ)
2nd 7-1 Mad Brian (9.2 on BETDAQ)
THE SHORT GAME: 18 WINNING BANKERS OUT OF 22 THIS YEAR
PROFIT: The column has made 131 points profit from 18 winning bankers out of 22 this year, and this strike-rate of around 80% is essential if you are going to back odds-on shots.
WON 5-4 February: CHATTERBOX
WON 1-7 March: SIMONSIG
WON 1-4 March: SPRINTER SACRE
WON 4-11 March: ANNIE POWER
WON 8-11 April: TORONADO
WON 4-6 May: LIBER NAUTICUS
WON 3-10 June: ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
WON 5-6 July: CUT THE CARDS
WON 3-10 July: MAPUTO
WON 1-2 July: TELESCOPE
WON 2-5 July: ROSIE PROBERT
WON 5-6 August MONTIRIDGE
WON 13-8 August (dd ht) INTEGRAL
WON 3-10 September NOVELLIST
WON 8-11 September JOYEUSE
WON 4-6 September ORFEVRE
WON 8-11 November UXIZANDRE
WON 1-5 November DOCTOR HARPER
THE LAYS WAY: CURRENT SEQUENCE 11 IN A ROW
PROFIT: The column has made 110 points profit from 11 consecutive winning lays, trying, though not always successfully, to keep the SP below 2-1.
Daqman could stipulate the price required, but then some of you would be on, some would miss out, and the credibility of the account would suffer.
It’s been proved in the seven years of lays in this column that an average of 72% success is required to achieve a reasonable return.
WON: Oct 30 DESERT SKIES (2nd 4-5 fav)
WON: Oct 29 EARTHFLIGHT (0 9-2)
WON: Oct 19 CIRRUS DES AIGLES (2nd 6-4 fav)
WON: Oct 17 FIRST LIEUTENANT (3rd 4-5 fav)
WON: Sep 30 BECKERMET (3rd 1-1 fav)
WON: Aug 26 BREAKING THE BANK (0 4-1)
WON: Aug 25 ASTONISHING (2nd 9-4 fav)
WON: Aug 25 CIRRUS DES AIGLES (0 2-1 fav)
WON: Aug 24 PARBOLD (3rd 11-4 fav)
WON: Aug 23 PAVLOSK (2nd 6-4 fav)
WON: Aug 23 SIMENON (2nd 15-8 fav)
IS THERE ANYTHING FOR THE CHRISTMAS BOX TODAY?
1.30 Kempton: There are three midweek fixtures at Kempton Park this week, with the feature race on the Flat the BETDAQ £40,000 Wild Flower (Listed) Stakes on Wednesday.
Today’s Kempton jumps card also has a Listed (1.30), which has been won four out of five seasons by a horse without a penalty, and the market suggests the same again.
Highland Retreat, who had winners behind him at Wincanton, is favourite, getting 8lb from Ma Filleule because that one has already won a Grade 2.
But, in that Grade 2 at Warwick, Ma Filleule beat the subsequent Mares Hurdle third (to Quevega), Swincombe Flame.
The handicapper splits the difference, and reckons Highland Retreat 4lb better than Ma Filleule, who gives trainer Nicky Henderson a headache.
She’s a big mare, ideal for fences, who would probably pick up a novice-chase sequence. But she’s not a novice, so not qualified. She’s already won three chases at Auteuil.
With her size and scope, Henderson steps her up to 3m here, which makes the clash with Highland Retreat – already a 3m winner – all the more intriguing. Ma Filleule could improve that 4lb for it.
CHRISTMAS-BOX VERDICT: There’s no banker here and no lay because we can only guess at the outcome (goodish ground may make a huge difference) but, with the BETDAQ orange totting up to 103% as I write, the 2.72 Ma Filleule this morning is a value guess in a two-horse test at ordinary stakes.
2.15 Ludlow You’ll be right nine times out of ten if you kick the 9 and 10 year old horses out of your reckoning for a fast-run two-mile chase (the ground is goodish today). They usually need mud to slow the youngsters down.
Zarzal (too high in the handicap for me) was made favourite this morning from Last Shot (has never yet put two wins together).
But, though he fell heavily on his reappearance, Topthorn is the course specialist (Ludlow figures 141) and I took 9.8 the Silver Patriarch grey.
CHRISTMAS-BOX VERDICT: At 9.8, we need only one winner from nine bets to break even, tilting at a 50-point return. So I’m chancing the lightweight Topthorn to hit the bull, getting 13lb and more from the other young horses in the race.
3.00 Wolverhampton ‘Edged left’, then ‘not clear run’, and ‘lost place’ recorded by racereaders in four consecutive races. What do these form comments tell you, added to figures of 3220023? Answer: that the beast in question is a professional loser.
No wonder Nickels And Dimes was kicked out of John Gosden’s yard. But the filly couldn’t have switched to a worse stable right now, debuting for Richard Fahey.
Fahey currently couldn’t train ivy up a wall: he’s had just two placed from his last 14 starters. It’s a month to the day since he had a winner, and he’s fired 43 blanks since then.
Six of Nickels’ opponents have run only once or twice and ‘could be anything’ or, at least, one of them could expose the filly’s weakness yet again.
CHRISTMAS-BOX VERDICT: The lays are doing so well that I feel like a jumps jockey who hasn’t fallen all year. I need a tumble to get it out of the way. So, since she’s around even money in the green, I’ll oppose Nickels. But only with Dimes.
I said I’d up my lays stake to 20 points but not in this one: you need to be laying in a race of exposed horses to be confident. In this Wolver maiden, anything can happen. Even the starter’s hack is on my side!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 11.5pts win (nap to win 20 points) MA FILLEULE (1.30 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5.6pts (to win 50 points) TOPTHORN (2.15 Ludlow)
LAY 10pts NICKELS AND DIMES (3.00 Wolverhampton)
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