HOUSTON CALLING: DAQMAN HAS LIFT-OFF: Daqman passed the 40-points-profit mark for the weekend with a double yesterday, following big-race strikes on Saturday. Both naps won.
Sunday: profit on the day 18.00
WON 3-1 HOUSTON TEXAS
WON 1-1 SEDGE WREN (nap)
Saturday: profit on the day 22.50
WON 9-2 PROSCHEMA
WON 2-1 BRAVEMANSGAME (nap)
BETDAQ WEEK IN AUSTRALIA AND AMERICA: It’s the start of an international racing week on BETDAQ, with the Melbourne Cup at Flemington in the early hours of tomorrow morning and the Breeders Cup championships at Keeneland in America on Friday and Saturday. Daqman covers them all.
MONTEFILIA MELBOURNE CUP ACE
⭕ 4.00 am tomorrow, Flemington, soft (Melbourne Cup)
DAQMAN’S STATS …
A: The last 18 winners had won a Group race in Europe or Australia.
B: 16 out of 18 had run in the last month.
C: Draw: (10 years 5, 5, 10, 1, 17, 4, 19, 21, 12, 18 (some 13 of 18 came out of stalls 9 or higher)
D: Current top Jockeys: Hugh Bowman, Jamie Kah, Blake Shinn and Craig Williams for Australia. William Buick for England.
D: Top Melbourne Cup jockeys Kerrin McEvoy, Craig Williams,
E: Current top trainers: The Ciaran Maher and David Eustace team.
E: Top Melbourne Cup trainers: Robert Hickmott and Gai Waterhouse
Breeding: Without A Fight is by Teofilo, who has sired the winner of two Melbourne Cups.
Interpretation and one-time Epsom Derby winner Serpentine are by Galileo who is 0-30.
Lays Logic: Only three favourites have won in 20 years.
ABC FORM GUIDE Five of of the last 11 Melbourne Cup winners have come from Ireland (2), with England, France and Germany one each.
Deauville Legend (James Ferguson; no form on soft) and Without A Fight (Team Crisford), both from England, are a much diminished raiding party this year, though you could include Hoo Ya Mal and Camorra, sent from England and Ireland to be trained for the job.
Camorra, who has not yet raced for Team Hayes in Australia, won the Curragh Cup (1m 6f) in June for Ger Lyons.
Ferguson, who started training only three years ago, has booked three times winning Melbourne Cup jockey Kerrin McEvoy for Deauville Legend.
ABCDE Smokin Romans
Won the Foundation Cup at Caulfield in September (1m 2f soft), with Gold Trip 3rd, Emissary 5th, Lunar Flare 6th, Daqiansweet Junior 7th.
Then won the Turnbull (1m 2f, Group 1) here at Flemington on the first of the month, with Young Werther, Knights Order, Gold Trip and Duais behind. Can he stay 2m?
Less than two lengths behind last year’s winner, Verry Elleegant (levels) in February, before taking back-to-back Group-1s in March, the Australian Cup here at Flemington then beating Stockman in the Tancred Stakes (1m 4f).
ABCE Gold Trip
Fourth to Sotsass in 2020 Arc de Triomphe on heavy, third to Smokin Romans at Caulfield and fifth to that one in the Turnbull.
Head defeat, giving 13lb, in the Caulfield Cup this month; Knights Order 3rd, Montefilia not clear run, ran on strongly 4th, Numerian 5th, Vow And Declare 6th, Smokin Romans 7th, Duais nearest finish 8th, Tralee Rose 13th
ABCE Knights Order
19th in the 2021 Melbourne Cup on good ground but back-to-back wins on heavy either side of the winter break, winning 1m (showed speed) and 2m Sydney Cup (showed stamina); Daqiansweet Junior 3rd, Stockman 7th, both at Randwick.
Epsom Derby winner 2020 for Aidan O’Brien from the front, moved to Melbourne Cup winning yard, finding some form here at Flemington when beaten a length in a Group-3 handicap three days ago.
Won the 2021 Metropolitan at Randwick and beat Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill in March (heavy). Went down only a length in Caulfield Cup prep race (not clear run) 17 days back. See Gold Trip.
ABC Lunar Flare
Group-3 handicap winner here at Flemington on the first of the month. See Smokin Romans.
ABC Daqiansweet Junior
Very lightly raced. See Smokin Romans, Knights Order.
Group-3 handicap winner, runner-up to Stockman on the soft in Randwick St Leger.
ABC Tralee Rose
9th in this last year. See Grand Promenade.
ABD Vow And Declare
Winner of the 2019 Melbourne Cup under Craig Williams but not a single success since in 14 starts; 18th in 2020. Williams now rides Hoo Ya Mal.
ABE Grand Promenade
Beat Tralee Rose in Group-3 handicap at this time last year, before 12-lengths 6th in this race, Tralee Rose behind.
ACDE Hoo Ya Mal
Second in the Epsom Derby to Desert Crown; hood changed to tongue-tie for third on firm at Goodwood, where followed up on good to soft to beat small field there (1m 6f). Needs to be back to his best.
AB Emissary, Numerian, Realm Of Flowers, Stockman, AC Camorra, Deauville Legend, Without A Fight, AE High Emocean, BCE Point Nepean, BC Young Werther is a maiden, BE Interpretation
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The mare Montefilia can win this but not Without A Fight! That’s my one-two, with Knights Order, Hoo Ya Mal and Camorra the best outsiders.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 13.0 Montefilia, 10.5 Without a Fight, 17.0 Knights Order, 17.5 Hoo Ya Mal, 60.0 Camorra
TZAR THOMAS TEMPTING AT 20.0
⭕ 12.55 Hereford today As well as my two out of three yesterday, I warned you that Sam Thomas, striking at 25%, has a runner every day this week but Friday and that his top tracks include Carlisle and Hereford.
Sam scored at Carlisle yesterday with Good Risk At All and now goes for a hat-trick with Tzarmix at Hereford.
Unraced in a big-field maiden is not a good risk at all but, because the yard is red hot, I’ll be spending a single point because the odds are what the risk requires: BETDAQ 20.0 this morning.
CANDLE FOR THE NAPS HAT-TRICK
⭕ 4.13 Kempton A solid field of 100-plus animals looking for Listed status, though in the case of Berkshire Rocco and Rousay, Listed-level success has already happened, which seemingly gives them the edge over the handicappers who make up the rest.
Wind surgery and a gelding op on Berkshire Rocco tells us that, after his absence of more than a year, the Fan Club which owns this Queens Vase and St Leger runner-up of 2020, are hoping to farm top winter AW prizes (or maybe they’ve removed some of the hindrance to a hurdles career)!
Rousay is a filly who won a quite prestigious Listed at Salisbury and now steps up in trip. Candleford, Royal Scandal (stable form poor) and Wild Crusade are CD winners.
Candleford beat Coltrane over the CD last November and won the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot in June. Didn’t hold his form over longer trips but was an eye-catching third to William Haggas stablemate Hamish in the Cumberland Lodge. BETDAQ 2.88 for the nap this morning.
Wild Crusade has won small-field races including here but blinkers that replaced his cheekpieces seemed to help as he went clear with the winner (giving away 8lb) in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket recently.
Warren Point, who gives Charlie Appleby a second chance in this, was well held by stablemate Wild Crusade when they dominated a three-horse race at Ascot in July.
HANDICAPPER LEAVES HIS TRACE
⭕ 4.45 Kempton (Middle-Distance Series Final) Those astute trainers Andrew Balding and Saeed Bin Suroor have played this final with sub-9st qualifiers over the CD in September and landed gambles in its first two seasons.
Natchez Trace won his qualifier last month, giving 7lb to Silverscape, yet is 4lb better off today.
Almufeed came back two weeks ago after a break since a four-timer included a Kempton double in the early part of the year.
True Courage won back to back (one of them here) in September over a furlong further when he carried 10st 3lb in a lesser race but motored through from the back. He didn’t do so well last time: he stayed at the back behind Nao Du Mais.
Then there’s Andrew Balding with Spring Glow, now within a pound of his mark when landing back-to–back wins here last year at this time.
I expect Natchez Trace to try to make all this evening and I take a chance on Spring Glow – well drawn in two – finding his form, and finding his feet from the rear.
BETDAQ value 9.6 Natchez Trace, 25 Spring Glow.
12.55 Hereford (win 20)
BET 1pt win TZARMIX
4.13 Kempton (win 12 nap)
BET 6.25pts win CANDLEFORD
4.45 Kempton (win 12 and win 25)
BET 1.4pts win NATCHEZ TRACE
BET 1pt win SPRING GLOW
4.00 a.m. Flemington tomorrow (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 5pts win WITHOUT A FIGHT
BET 4pts win MONTEFILIA
BET 3pts win KNIGHTS ORDER
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