COUNTDOWN TO THE ARC: WHAT’S THE WINNER GOING TO BE? The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is just seven days away, and Daqman launches his week-long countdown with the forecast going and an analysis of the conditions which favour each horse. First each day, the latest news on the big-race card. Arc headlines:
🔹 VETERAN OLIVIER ON STRADIVARIUS
🔹 FAVOURITE HAS NO LOVE FOR ‘SOFT’
TODAY: Stakes are kept low at the start of Arc week. One winner from the recommended three bets will guarantee a profit on the day.
VETERAN OLIVIER ON STRADIVARIUS
⚠️ HEADS UP: With Frankie Dettori wanted for Enable, Stradivarius will be ridden in Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe by Olivier Peslier.
Dettori has been in the saddle for 11 of Stradivarius’ 16 wins, and Andrea Atzeni, who has won on him three times, is ruled out of the Paris meeting because of quarantine rules.
Olivier Peslier, who is 47, has won the Arc four times: on Helissio (1996), Peintre Celebre (1997), Sagamix (1998) and Solemia (2012).
Like Dettori (38 winners from 145 rides this year), Peslier sits most of the season out these days.
He is currently 53rd in the French jockey’s table with only 16 winners and 155 mounts in 2020.
The leader, Pierre-Charles Boudot (174 wins from 756 rides), is the jockey who pipped Enable on Waldgeist in last year’s Arc.
FAVOURITE HAS NO LOVE FOR ‘SOFT’
RAIN! It’s the most strident four-letter word in European horseracing, and it’s forecast in Paris for the first three days of October.
Thursday, Friday and Saturday, there is an 80% chance of rain each day, and the going for the Arc de Triomphe next Sunday is expected to be on the soft side, maybe worse.
I’ve checked out the front-runners in the BETDAQ betting, allotting three categories: those who like plenty of give (‘soft ground’); those who favour a firmer surface (‘good ground’) and those who have won on both (‘any ground’).
‘Soft’ would seem to be against most of Aidan O’Brien’s runners, including the favourite, Love. It would help Stradivarius peg back the speed horses.
🌧️ SOFT GROUND
In Swoop Lightly raced but appears to prefer soft.
Telecaster Though he won on sounder surfaces as a three-year-old, his best form as he’s got older is on good to soft and heavy.
☁️ ANY GROUND
Enable has won an Arc on good and one on soft!
Japan has won on good, good to soft (twice) and heavy but doesn’t like it too firm.
Persian King has won on surfaces described as ‘good to firm’ and ‘heavy’ but, with suspect stamina, connections would prefer good ground.
Sottsass has won on the soft but landed the French Derby on officially good ground.
Stradivarius has won on all types of going but would probably need cut in the ground on Sunday to bring his stamina into play and hold back the speed horses.
☀️ GOOD GROUND
Love has won only on good and good to firm; beaten on good to yielding and on good to soft.
Mogul Though he won his maiden on good/yielding, he has been kept to good ground on which he has excelled. Beaten at Royal Ascot on good to soft.
Raabihah has won on ‘good’ turf and was beaten in the Prix de Diane on good to soft.
Serpentine ran away with the Epsom Derby on good going, and has been kept to a sound surface since being last but one on the debut on soft.
Sovereign Though won his maiden on the heavy, has been kept to good ground in nine subsequent races including Irish Derby strike, excepting successive defeats by Broome (one on soft; one good to yielding).
PIC IS THE PICK
⭕ 2.00 Hamilton Le Chiffre is becoming an expensive project for punters. He has been a beaten favourite in his last three starts – last time out in a lower grade race than todays.
Given he is likely to be short again, there might be value looking elsewhere.
Archaeology can probably be forgiven his latest effort at Thirsk when short of room but the handicapper wasn’t fooled and has put him up 2lb. His previous run after a long break was better at Redcar – but that came on soft ground.
Granite City Doc has also shown his best form with give in the ground.
A more speculative play might be El Picador who was a good ground winner at Chepstow last season and should enjoy the test of stamina up the hill on his first trip to Hamilton.
JARVIS THE CHOICE TRAINER AT BATH
⭕ 2.50 Bath William Jarvis has enjoyed a 4 from 7 strike-rate with his runners at Bath over the last five years and looks to hold solid chances of a place return with Michaels Choice in this sprint handicap.
The four-year-old seemed to improve for the fitting of a visor last time out at Sandown when fourth to Union Rose and a reproduction of that effort would give him outstanding claims here.
He’s won 3 from 17 but the good news is that two of those wins have come here at Bath – both over today’s trip and the firm ground should be to his liking.
One of his previous wins came off today’s mark of 72 and he looks a little over-priced in what is a wide open contest.
Princess Power is likely to go off favourite and is dangerous off this mark as she proved when a course and distance second in a better race last time out.
CAMMY LOOKS CANNY BET
⭕ 6.15 Newcastle Cammy was sent off at 125/1 on debut in a class 3 event at Doncaster but ran a race full of promise under Paul Mulrennan to finish sixth to the Sir Michael Stoute trained favourite Tawaareq. The third from that race has run well again since when (again) third at Newmarket.
Cammy was very green at the start but when the penny dropped shaped well.
With that run under his belt and him dropping two grades in class he should prove hard to beat in this company.
I thought the James Fanshawe yard were running into a red hot patch of form a few weeks ago but it’s been sporadic since from the Newmarket trainer. He sends Dutch Light up here who might represent the biggest danger given that she will improve for what was a fairly modest debut effort at Yarmouth when finishing in midfield.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 1.5pts win EL PICADOR (2.00 Hamilton)
BET 1.0pt win and 3.7pts place (both to win 10) MICHAELS CHOICE (2.50 Bath)
BET 3.6pts win (nap) CAMMY (6.15 Newcastle)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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