FORTUNE COOKIES ONE-TWO IN THE BIG RACE AT DEAUVILLE: Daqman named four horses yesterday: two winners and a second. His Fortune Cookies were one-two in the big race at Deauville: Baaeed (WON 1-2) and Order Of Australia (2nd 31-5 from 16.0 on BETDAQ), and his only bet in England was Great Ambassador (WON 11-10) at York. Here’s the line-up at the start of St Leger week:
DAQMAN 52, PRICEWISE 31
BULL’S-EYE NAPS 1-4 (25%)
SUPERNAPS 15-20 (75%)
LAYS LOGIC 13-18 (72%)
FORTUNE COOKIES 11-27 (40%)
BETDAQ: THAT’S WHERE YOUR BETTING BREAD IS BUTTERED: Daqman’s St Leger countdown begins today with a betting theme, which could be subtitled: ‘you know which side your bread is buttered.’ That would go down easier than the always-hard-to swallow headline: Back The Price Not The Horse.
TOMORROW: Fortune Cookies and two-year-olds to follow for the four-day Doncaster St Leger meeting, starting Wednesday:
MIDWEEK: ABC guide to the St Leger
NEXT WEEKEND: Two-day Leger special: Doncaster Saturday and the Irish St Leger (Sunday) plus the Curragh two-year-old tests: National Stakes and Moyglare.
BACK THE PRICE NOT THE HORSE..
What can you do? I mean, emphatically, what CAN you do with these odds-on favourites: if you back ‘em, they lose; if you avoid them, they win!
The answer is – whatever the odds of your fancy – you must know what it’s price SHOULD be.
And you must follow the market on BETDAQ, particularly close to the race, so that you can play at the varying offers.
The narrow verdicts against Starman, beaten a mere short-head, and Hukum, beaten just a neck, only went to make the pain worse for those of you who were on Saturday’s ‘good things’.
But there was a bigger shock in each race than the defeat of the favourite. That was the SP of the winner.
🏇 STARMAN: As I said in my column, I could neither back him nor lay him at odds on but could find nothing ‘too big’ among his rivals.
In fact, Starman eased to even money but anyone who priced up the race, and had Emaraaty Ana in at around 6-1, would have been stunned to be able to get on Ana at almost double those odds (11-1) at the ‘off’.
🏇 HUKUM: This odds-on favourite went the opposite way to Starman. Hukum was backed as if a proverbial certainty, seemingly home for all money. He closed to 30-100 but was outrun by Hamish, the morning 5-1 shot.
I thought 4-1 was about right for Hamish, who had missed the Ebor for lack of rain but – on jockey reports which I quoted in my column – would find Kempton riding slow. Hamish won but at an unbelievable 9-1
Punters face twin fears: ONE ‘Am I right to price up Emaraaty Ana at 6-1 and Hukum at 4-1?’ TWO: ‘Doesn’t a big drifter mean it’s not going to win?’
VERDICT: You can only win in the long term if you back the price not the horse. Or to put it another way..
You had no irrefutable basis for picking Starman over Emaraaty Ana, if someone came along and offered you an even tenner Starman and 100-10 Emaraaty Ana. THEY DID. Where were you?
The other race was different. It was a match, but the principle is the same. For someone to offer you ‘peanuts’ to a tenner the favourite and 9-1 Hamish to give you 100 return, that would beat even Santa Claus for generosity. THEY DID. Where were you?
In the long term, short shots don’t win enough times to make them profitable; that’s why my supernaps are scoring at a rate of 75% and don’t intentionally include long odds on. Nothing less than 70% will do.
About a 1-2 favourite like Baaeed, you have to ask yourself: will that price on a horse like that win enough times to make a profit? Same question about the runner-up, Order Of Australia (31-5).
This time the answer in each case would be maybe, maybe not, if we had bet at SP. But this column was on Order Of Australia on BETDAQ at 16.0, needing just one winner in a sequence of 15 to cover 14 losers! I think it’s clear which side your bread is buttered..
MOSTALLIM HAS MOST APPEAL
⭕ 2.00 Brighton The south coast track is idiosyncratic and not all horses take to it. As such, it might be best to rely on the only course and distance winner in the field Mostallim who is in a rich vein of form.
His trainer Mick Appleby is also going well with four winners from his last 20 runners and Mostallim is partnered by William Buick for the first time today which also has to be a positive.
Mostallim’s course and distance win came in May and he has also run well in two starts here since but both of those came over a mile and I think the drop back in trip should help.
It’s not the deepest of races, especially now given that the forecast favourite Coolagh Magic is a non runner (entered at Catterick tomorrow) and that may leave Olivia Mary as the biggest danger.
She remains a maiden after nine starts but has shown signs of ability – notably at Wolverhampton in December when chasing home Sky Blue Thinking who has boosted the form by winning her two subsequent starts. The downside is that Olivia Mary is having her first start since then and also tackling Brighton for the first time so it is hard to be too confident about her chances.
WILD ABOUT LION
⭕ 7.25 Newcastle Wild Lion was hovering around even money on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this morning and makes plenty of appeal despite the lengthy absence. Any other stable I would be more concerned but lack of a recent run is never a negative from Saeed bin Suroor’s runners – in fact can often be a positive as he is so patient to make sure his runners are fit enough to themselves justice.
There was plenty to like about Wild Lion’s first two efforts. A debut second at Yarmouth was followed up by a good run at Newmarket where he finished fourth to fellow Godolphin runner Dhahabi. The winner has since been placed in Listed and Group company so the form has a solid look to it.
It would be disappointing if he wasn’t good enough to see off the consistent but exposed Spiritofthenorth or Willard Creek who shaped with promise in a modest Redcar maiden on debut.
⭕ 8.30 Newcastle I thought Triple Jaye looked a little over-priced here against two rivals with something to prove after their latest efforts.
That’s not the case with Triply Jaye who arrives here chasing a hat-trick after fairly easy wins at Southwell and Musselburgh. The handicapper has had his say but there was plenty left in the tank at Musselburgh to suggest her run may continue.
She is preferred to Attaboy Roy (blinkers fitted for the first in 15 starts) and Tanasoq (up 3lb from C&D win in June and has struggled since).
BET 4.7pts win MOSTALLIM (2.00 Brighton)
BET 10.0pts win (nap) WILD LION (7.25 Newcastle)
BET 2.7pts win TRIPLE JAYE (8.30 Newcastle)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.