‘DUROBLE’ DAQMAN KEEPS ON WINNING WITH 2-1 NAP: Daqman landed his nap yesterday when he opposed the morning favourite in Kempton’s opener with Duroble Man (nap, WON 2-1). He was proved right as money came for the winner.
NOW IT’S TWO BEST BETS UP OUT OF THREE: It was Daqman’s second winning nap in three days after Perfect Heart (WON 10-3) on Friday and he’s had two winning lays out of two: First Lieutenant (3rd 4-5) and Cirrus Des Aigles (2nd 6-4), both favourites.
TREBLE GIVES HIM THREE DAYS PROFIT OUT OF FOUR: He made a profit on Thursday and Friday, and again yesterday when he trebled Duroble Man with Dodging Bullets (WON 8-11) and Sea Lord (WON 1-1), giving him three winners in a row at Kempton.
2.20 Plumpton 16 horses aged six and seven have attempted this opener and all have failed (four-year-olds are 3-4). No newcomers have won.
Even if we allow these stats to knock out nearly half the field, those with the higher win probability remain. However, I would be nervous of backing Blue Bear, Noble Friend and Snapchat, whose stables are all out of form.
Charlie Longsdon has had three winners from his last seven standing but Long Lunch beat nothing of note and was going right-handed at Market Rasen, while Auld Sthock has looked one paced at this minimum trip.
Macbeth had a 96 rating on the Flat in Ireland, and has seen a set of hurdles at Ballinrobe. So it’s a Scottish play for me for the trainer -jockey combo which won with a fresh horse at Kempton yesterday.
2.30 Windsor David Evans is 101 in this claimer and the ratings comparison with the allotted weights puts his Jack My Boy clear top.
2.50 Plumpton The fluctuating fortunes of Upton Mead and Watergate are measured in stones not pounds: Watergate was giving Upton Mead two stone in March but Watergate seems to have so deteriorated that he’s now in receipt of 16lb, an amazing slide of 44lb.
But both pulled up on their reappearance runs and are likely to need this race. She’s Humble is a course specialist but has never won over the trip. Nor has Osmosia.
It leaves me fancying Doheny Bar, whose course-and-distance chase win was sandwiched between modest hurdles outings, and his more recent run back over the smaller obstacles looked timed for a crack at this.
Upton Mead’s fencing form in blinkers is 222, and they are reapplied today, so I see Doheny Bar out in front, with this one the threatening chaser.
3.00 Windsor The Alamo ran a fair race two grades higher at Newmarket before being the ‘moral’, a close second giving weight to the winner over today’s CD on the soft a week ago.
The same stable, that of champion-trainer-elect Richard Hannon, fits last year’s winners, Authoritarian (3.30) and Aldwick Bay (4.30), with blinkers.
3.10 Pontefract This race has been run in two parts for the last three seasons – Ryle Mooch and Wild Sauce third in different divisions last year – with five of those divisions won from stalls 11 (twice), 12, 14 and 15.
The more rain the better for one of last year’s winners, Cheveton (stall 17), though sprinters at this lower handicap level rarely put back-to-back wins together. That also applies to Oldjoesaid and Waseem Faris.
Lastchancelucas (in 16) drops back to the trip and track of his heavy-ground success last year, and Avon Breeze (gate 12) is also back to 5f, down in grade. I can get 19.0 and 12.5 respectively.
3.20 Plumpton Gary Moore’s record in this is 110313, and he fits visors to Shadarpour for the first time today. He hasn’t worn any such aids for a year, since placed in France in first-time blinkers. I’ll have a bit each way at 10.0.
3.50 Plumpton Alan King ‘adores’ Uxizandre and has Tony McCoy at Plumpton for his only ride of the day, whereas Charlie Longsdon describes Loose Chips as ‘just a bit mad.’
Officially Loose Chips is 2lb better over hurdles but Uxizandre is the younger horse, likely to improve, and in fact is the one bred for chasing.
Barlow has a lightweight and did well enough at Wincanton. He will enjoy the switch to today’s left-handed track but it’s doubtful if he’ll settle. De Blacksmith is on a hat-trick of falls, and that’s just hurdling!
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 points, except stakes savers and multiples)
BET 4.2pts win JACK MY BOY (2.30 Windsor)
BET 4.5pts win DOHENY BAR and 2pts win (stakes saver) UPTON MEAD (2.50 Plumpton)
BET 8.2pts win THE ALAMO (3.00 Windsor)
BET 1.7pts win AVON BREEZE, and 1.1pts win and place LASTCHANCELUCAS (3.10 Pontefract)
BET 2.2pts win and place SHADARPOUR (3.20 Plumpton)
BET 12pts win (nap) UXIZANDRE (3.50 Plumpton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double THE ALAMO (3.00 Windsor) and UXIZANDRE (3.50 Plumpton)
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