72-1 GERMAN HORSE CALLED BADGER BURIES ARC FAVOURITES: Adayar and Hurricane Lane will stay in training next year. Tarnawa is likely to go for the Breeders Cup Turf. But any news of yesterday’s Arc is completely overshadowed by the shock result of a 72-1 German winner. Torquator Tasso was a figure in history but ‘tasso’ also means badger in German, and how he dug a hole and buried the Classic favourites of England and Ireland!
Longchamp wrap today: There’s always another Arc. Tomorrow: Final pieces of the two-year-olds jigsaw.
TODAY: The mundane of Monday meetings seems the more so after yesterday’s amazing race but there’s always the hope that, sometime this week, a ‘hidden horse’ like the badger is lurking at huge odds. Today’s nap runs in the 3.14 at Pontefract over a stamina sapping 2m 2f on soft ground.
THERE’S ALWAYS NEXT YEAR’S ARC
It’s always easy afterwards. Any vocal hindsight (’I would have backed it!’) is called ‘after timing’ in racing but it’s essential to look again at every result and ask yourself why.
Torquator Tasso, yesterday’s Arc winner at 72-1, had finished second in the 2020 German Derby to In Swoop, who was then beaten only a neck in the Arc.
So Tasso (which means ‘badger’ in German) was no 72-1 shot, certainly not the 139-1 offered in exchanges. But why did he win is not my question: why did William Buick try to do a Golden Horn; that’s my question.
It’s always easy afterwards, particularly from the stands or the sofa, but Adayar was brought across and ridden clear (exactly as Dettori rode Golden Horn) as if the going was good; only Wiliam made the move from before halfway!
No, the going was heavy and the horse wasn’t at the top of his game, so he was always going to hit a brick wall. Going, going, gone..
The market said that the other Godolphin star, Hurricane Lane, would be the better of the two on the day.
The good news is that both Adayar and Hurricane Lane remain in training next year, with their handler, Charlie Appleby, confident that there are Group-1 prizes to be had by both; maybe even the Arc for Adayar, on better ground.
As Appleby said: ’Coming back next year, I can see this horse being at the top of his game. Turning in you felt that William had got everything right and he went there to win the race.’
Had the distance he put between himself and the rest of the field been enough, Adayar fans would now be celebrating. It’s always easy afterwards.
And in the looking back there must always be this hope and resolve for the future. Tarnawa, an even closer near miss, is now likely to go for the Breeders Cup Turf.
ACCOUNTING FOR TESTING CONDITIONS
⭕ 3.14 Pontefract Soft ground, a testing course and 2m 2f. It’s safe to say that stamina is the key factor to the Bluff Cove Handicap and fortunately we can run a few fancied ones out who don’t qualify in that regard.
Folly Bridge is untried beyond 1m 6f and she didn’t exactly shine over that trip when a well beaten fourth at Sandown on similar soft ground.
The ground might also be a concern for The Resdev Way whose nine career wins have come on the all-weather and good to firm ground on the turf.
It might be best to rely on the proven stayer First Account – despite his relative lack of experience on the flat. He’s won three times over jumps and on each occasion the ground was soft so he gets big ticks in the ground and stamina boxes.
This is is flat handicap debut and he could easily be well in off a mark of just 62 based on three moderate efforts at Catterick, Hamilton and Ripon where, crucially, the ground was good and good to firm on those occasions and that’s not really his bag.
THE DARK HORSE
⭕ 4.45 Pontefract Dark Spec has run well in two starts after his monster lay off of 1389 days. There was plenty to like about his third to Crema Inglesa at Sandown last time out.
He gets the perfect draw in stall 1 which is particularly useful when it’s soft here and should find this much easier than Sandown.
Little Jo was a six length winner over course and distance in 2018 on good to firm ground but is equally at home on a softer surface and rates as the biggest danger.
NACHO WORTH A NIBBLE
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton I’m Watching You will be a clear market leader on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE but I’m in no rush to back him at short odds given he’s been a beaten favourite in both of his last two starts.
The value could lie with the consistent Nacho who was a course and distance winner in July (partnered by today’s pilot Ella McCain) and has been running creditably on the turf since.
He’s only 3lb higher in the weights since his July win and looks a solid place bet with the win a bonus which is how I will stake.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points, including place bet)
BET 5.0pts win (nap) FIRST ACCOUNT (3.14 Pontefract)
BET 2.6pts win DARK SPEC (4.45 Pontefract)
BET 1.0pt win and 6.5pts place NACHO (8.30 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.