FORTUNE COOKIES THIS WEEK BUT NO THREE-YEAR-OLD ACES: St Mark’s Basilica came back from a long holiday and scooped the French 2,000 Guineas for Aidan O’Brien, his second Guineas following Mother Earth’s 1,000 at Newmarket. After two Guineas strikes in England, Daqman kept stakes low yesterday and today hints at a whole new Fortune Cookies approach.
TODAY: DAQMAN again keeps the stakes low in the hope that one winner from his three races will be enough to show a profit on the day.
O’BRIEN’S MARK ON CLASSICS AGAIN
Four down; eight to go. And Aidan O’Brien has two Classics in the bag so far, St Mark’s Basilica yesterday winning the French 2,000 Guineas, following Mother’s Earth’s 1,000 at Newmarket.
I kept my French Guineas bets down, largely to my minimum 10-point targets. And it’s about the only thing I got right, with a 66-1 maiden-only winner beating Mother Earth in the French 1,000.
The three-year-olds never seem to run the same race twice and it will take all of the Irish Guineas, Epsom and Irish Derby and Oaks (and Royal Ascot in between) to straighten things out. Or not.
It seems strange to the purist punter but we’re better off shying at the handicaps for a punt and following older horses at short prices for our bread and butter.
I’m thinking Palace Pier and Al Aasy, and I’m talking Fortune Cookies, long overdue ‘good things’ for the year. Watch this space.
But nothing seems to stop Ballydoyle, so strong is their army, with O’Brien stepping in when he sees fit, or rather when the horse fits the occasion. That’s the art of training.
Bolshoi Ballet (Derby) and Santa Barbara (Oaks) have strengthened in the June Classics markets, simply because, yet again, only Aidan O’Brien comes through with anything near flying colours after yesterday.
Sluicing through the Longchamp mud in slow times doesn’t make champions and a £306,000 bag of the Guineas cash will hardly keep Ballydoyle in feedstuffs or write St Mark’s Basilica’s name down in history.
But the eight remaining Classics of the summer are golden keys to unlocking the millions in stud fees and yearling sales. Here they are with their likely Ballydoyle leaders.
How many more favourites will fall, some of them to O’Brien’s own outsiders (he made a total of 52 entries in the French Classics alone)?
Friday, Goodwood Last-chance-saloon trials for the Derby and Oaks, the Cocked Hat Stakes (colts) and the Height Of Fashion (fillies).
Saturday, the Curragh: Irish 2,000 Guineas (Battleground, Wembley)
Sunday, the Curragh: Irish 1,000 Guineas (Joan of Arc)
Friday, June 4: Epsom Oaks (Santa Barbara)
Saturday, June 5: Epsom Derby (Bolshoi Ballet)
Sunday, June 6: French Derby (St Mark’s Basilica)
Sunday, June 20: French Oaks, the Prix de Diane
Saturday, June 26: Irish Derby (Bolshoi Ballet)
Saturday, July 17: Irish Oaks (Santa Barbara)
STARS ARE OUT AT REDCAR
⭕ 1.20 Redcar It’s a day generally high on quantity but low on quality. The exception to that may well come later on the card at 2.30 when the Sir Michael Stoute trained Potapova will go off at prohibitive odds to land the seven furlong fillies novice event.
She was a runaway six and a half length winner on debut at Chelmsford and has an early entry for the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot for which she is around 20/1 before today’s race.
You do have to feel a bit for the smaller northern owners and trainers. A race like this on a Monday would ordinarily be their bread and butter but in this race not only do you have Potapova but also Ghazaaly who cost a mere 260,000gns as a yearling!
Back to the opener and another southern raider stands out – this time Mutawaarid for Ed Dunlop. He ran green on his debut at Wolverhampton but proved he had plenty of latent ability when chasing home the odds-on Lankaran in a race that was well above average for the course. The form was given a huge boost when the fifth, Final Watch, came out to win at Newmarket last week.
DREAMING OF ANOTHER WIN
⭕ 6.50 Windsor (Weatherbys ePassport Stakes Listed) Nothing else makes much appeal during the afternoon so it’s a trip to omnipresent Windsor on Monday where they have a Listed race which looks at the mercy of the Sir Michael Stoute trained Dream Of Dreams who won this in 2019. He also won the Sprint Cup at Haydock last season and should see off his two rivals here – even if not fully wound up on his seasonal reappearance. He doesn’t represent a bet for me though at long odds-on.
SAYING NO TO THE RACE FAV
⭕ 7.50 Windsor Matamua sets the bar at a decent level after her debut fourth at Thirsk to Elvrika. She looked a little unlucky that day and the Simon and Ed Crisford trained runner should be up to winning a maiden.
However this could be a well above average maiden even after the withdrawal of the Richard Hannon trained Model Actress.
On that basis I am not sure Matamua necessarily deserves to be favourite. She’s racing on vastly different ground tonight and is up against some potentially smart newcomers.
John and Thady Gosden run debutant Gal Wonder but also Youcouldhavesaidno who showed promise on her debut at Kempton and that experience may just prove vital.
RAIN TO REIGN AGAIN
⭕ 8.20 Windsor Rains Of Castamere will relish the soft ground more than most here and is taken to get back to winning ways.
He was bidding for a four-timer at Nottingham last time out and was a beaten favourite in third – his overall form over going and trip though remain solid.
Song Of The Isles is out of form but if more rain arrives she could be with a play at big odds – she is a confirmed mudlark and I will include for a low risk WIN 10 bet on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points, except Song Of The Isles bet as indicated)
BET 3.5pts win (nap) MUTAWAARID (1.20 Redcar)
BET 2.0pts win YOUCOULDHAVEDSAIDNO (7.50 Windsor)
BET 2.5pts win RAINS OF CASTAMERE (8.20 Windsor)
BET 1.0pt win (win 20) and 2.4pts place (win 10) SONG OF THE ISLES (8.20 Windsor)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
