THREE NAPS OUT OF FOUR AND A SCREAMING FINISH TO THE TRIAL: Daqman’s delight ended in a screaming finish to the Punchestown Grand National Trial yesterday after he nailed his colours to the horse that came to lead on the run-in. But Jamie Codd on The Big Dog regained his foothold in a lost iron, and got back up to beat Screaming Colours (2nd 9-1) half a length. Saving grace was the nap, Caribeno, third winning best bet in four days:
✔️ WON 6-4 CARIBENO Sunday nap
✔️ WON 5-2 TRUE HERO Friday nap
✔️ WON 7-2 BEFORE MIDNIGHT Thursday nap, BETDAQ 7.8 taken
TODAY: Part 3, with one to go, in Daqman’s assessment of the Dublin festival effect on Cheltenham.TODAY: Two cracking races at Warwick which could change the markets for the Arkle and the Stayers Hurdle.
TOMORROW and WEDNESDAY: Grand National weights analysis.
CHELTENHAM: SEE HOW THEY WON
Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Is the increasingly strong Dublin Festival the key to the championship races in March? Here’s the path to Cheltenham taken by the champions of Day 3 in the last three years (Dublin festival winners in capitals).
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 18 (Golden Miller Novices’ Chase) The 2018 winner came from the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, the 2019 winner from the Scilly Isles Novices Chase at Sandown, and last year had been beaten on Boxing Day at Limerick.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 18 (Ryanair Chase) Second at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting; winner of the Cotswold Chase. That’s the story until last year.
MIN ran second to Chacun Pour Soi in a dramatic Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, 24 lengths clear of the remainder. Min got his revenge at Cheltenham by default; Chacun Pour Soi didn’t run until December.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 18 (Stayers Hurdle) Penhill had almost a year off before scoring in 2018.
Paisley Park (2019) followed the Long Walk and Cleeve Hurdle route but, after winning the Cleeve again in 2020, with Lisnagar Oscar third, had an off-day at Cheltenham and Lisnagar Oscar won the title.
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Thursday, March 18 (Mares Novices Hurdle) The last three winners of this were all trained by Willie Mullins.
Cheltenham was the third race of a six-timer for Laurina (2018), with her main prep the Solerina at Fairyhouse.
Eglantine Du Seuil (2019) came from ‘nowhere’; a 50-1 shot with experience only at Sligo (maiden winner) and Listowel (third)
Concertista (2020) did run at the Dublin festival, but was only third in a handicap, though had been second at Cheltenham the year before to Eglantine Du Seuil.
IS HE THE KIND TO WIN AN ARKLE?
⭕ 2.50 Warwick (Kingmaker Novices Chase) Winners of this have been third and fourth in the Arkle in the decade but Dan Skelton insists that, with Allmankind, he fears not the likes of Shishkin and Energumene at Cheltenham.
That would hark right back to Flagship Uberalles (Kingmaker>Arkle winner 1999) and Voy Por Ustedes (2006 Arkle after a Kingmaker run at Wincanton); not even Long Run (RSA placed, 2010) and Finian’s Rainbow (Arkle second, 2011) could follow up from the Kingmaker.
Before this race at Warwick today you could back Allmankind on BETDAQ at 11.0 for the Arkle in the Sportsbook of the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE. He could be clipped a couple or three points if he wins, giving you some overs to play with.
Strictly on official ratings, Allmankind cannot beat Sky Pirate this afternoon, even though that one was 17.0 in the same book for the Arkle.
But Sky Pirate has won only handicaps, the last one, the Edward Courage here at Warwick, when the runner-up was trained D Skelton, so we assume no worries there, then.
Cheddleton has won in the North in lower grade but officially has only 2-3lb to make up on the principals, and has the early pace to test the best in this.
What I don’t like about Allmankind – or any other beast heavily festooned with headgear – is that he wears both tongue-tie and hood. But he must win this, barring accident, or Dan Skelton is hallucinating.
SAGA OF FRENCH SUPER STAYERS
⭕ 3.25 Warwick David Cottin, whose Easysland beat Tiger Roll in the Cheltenham cross-country, now tests his Stayers’ Hurdle contender, Paul’s Saga, with champion jockey Brian Hughes booked.
This is only a mares’ Listed and the seven-year-old grey has won five Graded races at Auteuil and £547,000, against the highest rated of ours of the same age, Eglantine Du Seuil, who needs some more loose change to reach £100,000.
Eglantine won a sub-standard Mares’ Novices at Cheltenham for Willie Mullins in 2019 but nothing since and, after the transfer to Paul Nicholls, more nothing, albeit taking on Roksana and Magic Of Light when third at Ascot the last day.
Mollys Ollys Wishes has progressed in handicaps after being a good 18lb inferior to Eglantine Du Seuil at Wincanton in November.
Dolcita, second in the Dawn Run novices at Cheltenham (Whitehotchilifili sixth but improved lately), has changed trainers twice since.
What I don’t like about Paul’s Saga is that he wears tongue-tie and, now, first-time cheekpieces. If he and Allmankind both win today, I’ll have to learn to live with my prejudices.
FAVOURITE A LAY: NO LAY-DOWN
⭕ 7.00 Wolverhampton There was a lot wrong with a race at Lingfield in December won by Sammarr, when the odds-on favourite failed to perform.
Slow away and pushed along, Sammarr would eventually win going away which, in hindsight, wasn’t terribly difficult.
The racereader must have blushed several times, re-reading his statement: ‘(Sammarr) looks a really useful prospect going forward.’ She may be. She may win today. It happens among novice fillies.. but I think she’s worth taking on because:
THE FIRST THREE in the race – including the winner – have not been seen since; that’s 56 days ago.
SEVEN of them in the race had run 13 times beforehand for just once in the frame without winning.
FOUR of them ran a total of eight times after the Lingfield race and all failed to reach the frame.
Charlie Appleby won today’s race last year. It’s his time of year and he has a 36% strike rate at Wolverhampton; current form 3-4.
And it’s his New Exceed who looks more likely to be the winner, after a promising recent introduction; well related on the dam’s side, back to an Arc winner.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.50 Warwick
FORTUNE COOKIE (nap)
BET 10pts win ALLMANKIND
3.25 Warwick
BET 10pts win PAUL’S SAGA
7.00 Wolverhampton
BET 5pts win NEW EXCEED
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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