BIG-RACE SUPERNAP WINS AT LONGCHAMP: Daqman turned from his Grand National celebrations to land his supernap in a Group-2 at Longchamp yesterday through Ghaiyyath (WON 4-7) for Charlie Appleby and William Buick on a day when Shaman’s win in the La Force boosted the Lagardere form.
NEW BANKER BET ALREADY IN THE MONEY: Supernaps are intended to set up short-priced sequences which roll up into a decent profit. But what if there’s hidden value in the BETDAQ offers or the horse is likely to start at up to 5-1? The answer is Bull’s-Eye Supernaps! And they’re already winning money.
BULL’S-EYE SUPERNAPS: 91 PROFIT
It was a cracking find! Then Commodore Daqman decided to steer this new ship quietly. Only today does the Bull’s-Eye Nap come out into open waters.
Says Daqman: ‘I decided at the start of the year that we needed a ‘value supernap’, with an increased stake or target return.
‘So I waited until I felt that the occasion presented itself to supernap a horse that wasn’t going to be a short shot or even a long shot. I wanted something in between that I felt was solid at from 5-2 to 5-1.
‘The same 20-point supernap stake would yield 50 points at the 5-2. Potential for even more. But I wouldn’t go mad and start labelling the better offers win-100; I would leave that to you.
‘In any case, the ‘Bull’s-Eye supernap needed to prove itself, which would take time, since I didn’t intend more than one a month. It would be a really considered bet, not forcing it but waiting until the opportunity presented itself.
‘After all, value is basically where a horse is better odds than it should be. Often it needs to be an animal that has been overlooked.
‘Finding value at big odds is easier, simply because most double-figure odds are at even bigger offers on BETDAQ. Even then, I calculate my challenge to Pricewise at SP. Goodness knows, how many points clear I would be at BETDAQ offers!
‘I was right to do so, as Pricewise has largely stopped claiming the paper odds about his selections, as they rarely last until breakfast.
‘Anyway, back to Bull’s-Eye Supernaps. I can’t tell you when they will happen. I will be looking for rare gems, intending to have yet another profitable bet alongside the value bets and the Fortune Cookies.
‘Here are the three special supernaps so far, with a running total, in which the winnings are always 50 points and any losses are always the win-50 stake declared in the daily column:
WON 9-2 CRACKING FIND (January 25, Doncaster) + 50.00
FELL 5-1 VICENTE (February 23, Newcastle) + 41.50
WON 3-1 COMMODORE (March 9, Sandown Park) + 91.50
SUPER DOM PICK OF WINDSOR TRIO
2.50 Windsor Summer must be on its way !! Windsor and Mondays go together like an ice cream and a cone but I’d be a seller on ice cream sales on this particular overcast Monday.
It’s almost summer ground though, firm in places, so we need to take that into account.
The benefit of a previous run at this stage of a season is worth bundles to a two-year-old and Dorchester Dom can build on his excellent debut fourth in the Brocklesby at Doncaster. The David Evans trained runner was nibbled at from 50/1 to 33/1 that day in a race that is already working out exceptionally well.
The third placed Zulu Zander won well subsequently at Leicester and the sixth and seventh have also both been placed in follow up runs.
The problem is of course we have all the debutants to worry about (only Dorchester Dom has run so far) but the Godolphin runner Making History (by Dubawi) was pulled out this morning and I think it would take something well above average to peg back Dorchester Dom – especially as he his likely to come on plenty for Doncaster. David Evans also won this race in 2016.
4.20 Windsor Adam Kirby has had another cracking all-weather season and is currently heading the table.
He teams up on the turf here with Beyond Equal who I can think can begin the season where he left off the last won – as a winner. He’s won four of his eight races on good ground or better, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see front running tactics used again.
He made all to win at Salisbury on his final race of last season – that was the first time he’d raced from the front and if doing so again could be hard to peg back here at a track where front runners often do well.
He’s 5lb higher in the handicap but has been relatively lightly raced and it would be no surprise if there wasn’t further improvement to come.
5.20 Windsor This might not be as competitive as it first looks. Lethal Missile (Adam Kirby again) didn’t show a lot in his first three starts but shaped well on his handicap debut at Kempton when second to Oloroso. Mushaageb was well behind in 10th that day and a disappointing beaten favourite.
That shows to me he is on a good handicap mark and may well have a fitness edge over the majority of these with that recent run.
Lee Roy scrambled home at Kempton last time out in a blanket finish and will find this much tougher off a higher mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points except SUPERNAP staked at SP)
SUPERNAP BET 20pts win DORCHESTER DOM (2.50 Windsor)
BET 5.8pts win BEYOND EQUAL (4.20 Windsor)
BET 10.4pts win LETHAL MISSILE (5.20 Windsor)
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