DAQMAN HITS 110 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: Daqman did it again yesterday with 39 points profit from winners at 17-2, 7-1 and 11-4, following 71 points at York on the first day, his seven winning bets totting up to more than 110 points profit.
BANG ON WITH BOGART AT 17-2: After two successful lays plus Sea Moon (WON 11-2) and Entifaadha (WON 7-2) on Wednesday, Daqman’s winners yesterday were Bogart (WON 17-2), Megalala (WON 7-1) and Blue Bunting (WON 11-4).
2.00 York: With Alan Jarvis showing a near-50% win-and-place strike-rate, it shouldn’t have been a 25-1 surprise when Navajo Chief skated up yesterday, and Right Step has the same smart boy, Harry Bentley, in the saddle.
But it’s hard to back a horse that’s won only a maiden and is drawn (18) out in the old chocolate-factory car-park.
Prompter, seventh in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot, and behind Right Step at Epsom, has also won only his maiden but the son of a Derby winner is less exposed, well drawn and dropping down the handicap.
The poor pace was no use to Prompter or to John Dunlop’s Warlu Way at Ascot last month when Kiama Bay was runner-up. Only one horse in the last decade has carried more than 9st 5lb to victory in this, Camrose, and that was trained by Dunlop. Warlu Way has a 50% win record on left-handed tracks.
Sir Michael Stoute also has a good record in the race and won it last year with The Fonz, 12lb better off with the colt he beat into third that day, Life And Soul.
A key race could be the handicap at Ascot last September in which Life And Soul beat Prompter and The Fonz. Prompter is 5lb better with the winner for a threeparts of a length but The Fonz is 7lb better with Prompter for a head.
There’s not much between Bowdlers Magic and The Fonz on Haydock form and Sharayeen comes into it on his May second at Newmarket (Life And Soul third, The Fonz fourth). Sharayeen’s two successes have both come on left-handed tracks but he has a high draw and Barry Hills has not so far been firing at York.
My three against the field at Betdaq offers are The Fonz (10.0 as I write), Warlu Way (11.5) and Bowdlers Magic (20.0).
2.30 York (Gimcrack Stakes): This is the first race I’ve seen this year when not a single horse can be counted out of it. Even rank outsider, Wise Venture, has Alan Jarvis’s current form to push him into the picture.
Diamondhead and Sardanapalus bring nothing recognizable to the table in the way of form but are seemingly among the pick of the juveniles from two yards doing particularly well with their two-year-olds this season.
B Fifty Two looks exposed but has defeat of Lilbourne Lad on his CV. Justineo has won only his maiden but trainer William Haggas has had two wins and a second from his last three runners in this race.
Caspar Netscher’s Goodwood run was his best, and the same Harbour Watch form makes us respect Burwaaz. As Bill at the betting shop said in the pub last night: Will Lilbourne Lad win? Answer: ‘No, Reply!’ (You need to give it the pause).
Lilbourne Lad stole the coveted Railway Stakes, Ireland’s leading two-year-olds ‘classic’ but there’s little to choose between him and Reply on their Phoenix Stakes running.
The feeling is that one of the less exposed animals will come on the proverbial ton and win: remember that most of the top juvenile form is on firmish ground, so all the obvious ones are vulnerable.
Of the lightly raced horses, Diamondhead has drifted right out this morning and Sardanapalus would have to defy the stats: only two Gimcrack winners since 1973 had had only a single run. So I’m Justineo for the money!
3.05 York: Godolphin have won this three years out of four and, after last night’s rain, the ground has come right for Biondetti (8.6 on the Daq), who won the San Siro Grand Criterium on soft.
Dux Scholar, the 2010 Horris Hill runner-up with cut in the surface, has ground to make up on Nationalism on Windsor form, but should be able to confirm Newbury placings with Anmar despite the revised weights.
Anmar has drifted like a dog on a raft because of the easier ground. Green Destiny has so far failed to break into the Pattern, beaten at Listed level.
Western Aristocrat (holds Tazahum) enjoys an easy surface for the first time since he skated up in his maiden last backend and he ran very well when third in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. The extra distance is needed, according to the trainer: 7.2 on the Daq.
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes): The two-year-old Requinto bids to become the third juvenile winner of this in 19 years from 13 contenders. Not a bad record.
Hoof It tries to do a Borderlescott and come from handicap company to a Group 1; he certainly looked out of place in the Stewards Cup – because he was so far in front! – and seven of the last 10 Nunthorpe winners had never won a Group race over 5f.
There’s another new kid on the sprint block (pun intended): Masamah fair trotted up at Goodwood but has last night’s rain blunted his speed? Likewise Prohibit, who blasted home in the Kings Stand: will he show the same kick on slower ground?
His June form against Wizz Kid at Chantilly say that he will; he turned around May placings with Inxile.
Bated Breath seems very much a top-of-the-ground horse and connections will be hoping it dries out during the day. His form with soft mentioned in the going return is 340. Hoof It’s is 20 but his big wins have been over 6f so some cut could help him.
It’s a tough call but I will have my pound at 12.0 on Wizz Kid, who goes well fresh and has been trained in the same way and to win the same prep race as Last Tycoon, former winner of this for the Collet stable.
Hoof It might win but is poor value at 3.7 and Requinto’s 7.8 is guesswork. I could spread stakes over the top five but I will be left with a margin so thin it would look like bank interest.
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 3.3pts win THE FONZ, 2.8pts win WARLU WAY, and 1.5pts win and place BOWDLER’S MAGIC (2.00 York).
BET (to win the usual 20 points): 2.6pts win JUSTINEO (2.30 York)
BET 3.2pts win WESTERN ARISTOCRAT and 2.6pts win BIONDETTI (3.05 York)
BET 1.8pts win and place WIZZ KID (3.40 York)
BET 1pt win and place MADAM MACIE (4.50 York)
BET 4.4pts win (nap) GALLEGO (5.25 Salisbury)