DAQMAN UNBEATEN WITH 37 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman scored in two races out of two yesterday with a high-stakes bet on Final Liberation (WON 11-8) and a ‘this should win’ vote for West With The Wind (WON 3-1). Total profit at Betdaq offers taken was 37.10.
It paid well to stick to the classier races yesterday. And there should be plenty of class 3 and upwards today and tomorrow. I’ve also done well over the sticks this week, so what better card this afternoon than the mixed meeting at Ffos Las (get on with it, Daqman; we know all about your class distinctions!)
1.50 Newmarket I’m starting with a race that should be renamed the Stoute Two-Year-Old Classic trial. Sir Michael’s had four wins and two placed in it this century, and they’ve all been hot fillies.
Stoute won it by six lengths with the subsequent Musidora winner, Short Skirt; beat a field of 17 with a future Listed filly; and took it by five lengths last year with the Group-3 Oh So Sharp winner next time out, Havant. Say Shada. Say no more.
3.30 Newmarket Fighting-for-the-title Fallon might easily have won with Shada and Goldream (2.55). But I can never get on the right side of Kazbow, the top weight in this one.
He’s acey-deucey: in eight consecutive races as favourite, he won three but was second five times. You blow your bank following that sort of form. His last second has cost him 2lb; he’s 8lb above his last winning rating and up a grade.
If those two Fallon two-year-olds, Shada and Goldream, have indeed gone in, and Kieren is on yet another hat-trick, Kazbow (9.4 this morning) could crash in price, in which case I suggest a lay. Nothing over the age of four has won this since we believed in banks in the 1990s.
Three-year-olds have a massive record (five out of seven) and Manifestation can only improve. But better offers are Mister Angry (12.5), who found a new lease of life stepped up to 2m at Kempton, and Trovare (15.0), better off with Danvilla and expected to improve for eye-shields.
3.40 Ffos Las Punters backing the draw usually look for a rail stalls bias on one side or t’other but, at Ffos Las, according to the Racing Post’s TopDraw, it’s middle for diddle: nearly threequarters of 6f winners have come from a the middle draw. Game on?
Well, my own research begs to differ: it reveals that a front-runner with a high draw has scored three times in a row this season. Kuanyao (in 12) fits that bill: the six-times-in-a-row winner is inevitably high in the handicap this season but came back to form last time when just failing to last out over 7f. At 11.0, he’s a better back-and-lay bet than Zero Money.
The 4.6 offer also likes to show them a clean pair of heels but, although he put back-to-back wins together last year, he’s up 6lb, won in a slow time at Newmarket and, in a fast-run race at Pontefract earlier, was run out of it.
Colonel Mak must be a big threat in this company, yet is 8.2 on the Daq. He’s had all the bad luck going (drawn on the wrong side in the Great St Wilfrid; smashed his teeth on the stalls in the Stewards Cup).
Star Rover prefers 5f, Mirza is raised two grades and 7lb, and Yellow Dandy, the Irish raider, though a dual winner at Ffos Las, has had all his success at a much lower level.
4.35 Newmarket: The 6lb rise for the grey’s CD win may not stop White Frost; after all, he had shot straight to class-2 success from a modest Thirsk maiden
4.50 Ffos Las Quattrocento is an old mate of mine: grabbed me some headlines in a staying hurdle on today’s course two years ago when 20-1 on Betdaq (won 10-1 SP).
He’s won three steeplechases since then, two of them here so 11.5 on the Daq was tempting this morning. The last of these wins in May has set him back 10lb but he’s still only seven, has got his ground and, in fact, won off 117 (he’s 120 today) 18 months ago or more.
Cold Harbour is a triple Ffos Las scorer but has to raise his game two grades and last year’s runner-up, Midnight Gold – also Peter Bowen’s – looks too high in the handicap at age 11 to land his third course win.
There are two more Bowen runners in this, making four in all: North Island (unexposed over fences at today’s trip but a 3m hurdles winner) and Sun Tzu (hiked 11lb for winning at Perth and consequently beaten favourite on the same course).
Templer (holds Earth Dream) is a bridesmaid – 50% seconds in three seasons – and his sole success in 18 months has been in an amateurs’ race. I can’t have Ogee until I see signs that he’s bounced back to his 2009 form.
7.35 Hamilton (Lanark Silver Bell) I’ve got to ‘leave a pound’ on Bothy at 10.0. This is a wide-open race and Bothy has only ever won his maiden on the Flat.
But he’s been transformed over hurdles, second in three top-flight handicaps: the Coral Cup, the Tote Trophy and the Greatwood. He has scored before after a long break and his yard has just won the Ebor.
BET 7.6pts win (nap) SHADA (1.50 Newmarket)
BET 2pts win KUANYAO, 2.7pts win COLONEL MAK and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) ZERO MONEY (3.40 Ffos Las)
BET 1.7pts win MISTER ANGRY, 1.4pts win TROVARE and 1pt win (stakes saver) MANIFESTATION (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 6pts win WHITE FROST (4.35 Newmarket)
BET 1.9pts win and place QUATTROCENTO (4.50 Ffos Las)
BET 2.2pts win and place BOTHY (7.35 Hamilton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Shada (1.50 Newmarket), Manifestation (3.30 Newmarket) and White Frost (4.35 Newmarket)