DAQMAN HITS DOUBLE WHAMMY FOR NUMBER EIGHT: Daqman made it eight lays in a row in style at Newmarket yesterday with a double whammy, not only laying Cill Rialaig (3rd 3-1 jt fav) but landing the winner, Mohedian Lady (WON 3-1) in the same race. He made 26 points profit on the day.
SIX CONSECUTIVE LOSING FAVOURITES: It was the sixth favourite in a row to fall to the Daqman hoodoo. He’s now hit nine winning lays out of 10. Here are the last eight successes for 80 points profit (look out for another one tomorrow):
* Cill Rialaig (3rd 3-1 jt favourite), Newmarket Sept 22
* Waltzing Cat (unplaced 15-8 favourite), Kempton Sept 21
* Half A Billion (3rd 7-4 favourite), Beverley Sept 20
* Deliberation (unplaced 9-4 favourite), Hamilton Sept 18
* Labarinto (unplaced 7-2 favourite), Newbury Sept 17
* York Glory (unplaced 11-2 favourite), Doncaster Sept 10
* Zero Money (unplaced 7-1), Doncaster Sept 10
* Catchanova (unplaced 4-1), Kempton Sept 7
The bookies are crowing. Their published morning-line races show best offers of close to a level playing field of 100% in each of two races. But, on this day of a potential £3m Tote jackpot at Newmarket, they are in fact running scared.
They’ve ducked the handicap. No prices on the ‘Silver’ Cambridgeshire. So no Pricewise bets in a handicap, as the layers hide behind a Group 2 with odds of between 3-1 and 5-1 tightest about five out of seven runners, and 2-1 to 7-1 about half the field in the Fillies’ Mile. You need have nothing to do with this cowardly ploy.
1.15 Newmarket (Oh So Sharp Stakes): It’s been a lean year for Sir Michael Stoute by his standards, and next year isn’t looking too rosy either. This is a youngsters’ trial he’s made his own and he would have been on a hat-trick, but nothing doing from Freemason Lodge.
Minidress’s win at Newmarket was too recent to give us collateral or winning form just yet. The same applies to Alsindi, though one winner has come out of her Yarmouth soft-ground maiden.
Desert Gazelle’s maiden win in July ought to have done better than just one ordinary-level winner from its 13 runners. Rakasa’s win the same month has produced only two successes and she herself was short-headed at Goodwood, albeit in a Group 3.
The winner that day, Regal Realm, was then six lengths short of Group-2 success in the May Hill. Questing was third to Regal Realm and Rakasa at Goodwood, so probably all three are nailed to the Group 3/Listed board.
It makes it tricky to choose between Rakasa and Questing today but two others in the field have form in depth which could be good enough.
All five of the runners in the Emirates Art win at Lingfield have winning form, though what beats the lot is Elusive Flame’s Doncaster win: all bar one of the 13 runners are winners.
And here’s a clue to its level: the only non-winner in the field, Scrooby Doo, more than seven-lengths behind, was only slightly nearer Rakasa at Goodwood. David Elsworth is having a fine season and Elusive Flame at 13.0 could give us a good run, at least into a place.
1.50 Newmarket: This seems to be a clash of two trainers in devastating form: Roger Varian, with a near-50% win-and-place strike rate (12 from 25) and Luca Cumani with 72%, though his is more place than win, missing the target badly with 10 seconds and thirds.
His runner, Seta, bids for a four-timer of Listed wins, though Soorah on soft and Reem on AW have both scored at this level.
The Varian runner, Dark Promise, is ‘the same horse’ as Off Chance on Pontefract form and Off Chance was behind Seta at Doncaster.
Electra Star has to step up from handicaps but The Shrew looks overpriced at 23.0 offers on Betdaq this morning, since she was considered good enough to have a crack at the Guineas.
Her 1,000 hopes were put at 66-1 but there’s nothing of Blue Bunting’s class here and John Gosden has rested her and ‘got her up’ for this bid to acquire some black type.
2.25 Newmarket (Joel Stakes): Four out of six shared by Stoute and Saeed Bin Suroor since 2005. Ratings wise, all three of their runners today are up there with previous winners from their yards. It’s 5-4 to three-year-olds in the last decade.
Bin Suroor’s Emerald Commander holds Premio Loco and Poet’s Voice on Goodwood form but that was on soft: ‘Loco’ was earlier in front of Emerald Commander at Salisbury and Frankie Dettori prefers Poet’s Voice today.
If Libranno tries to poach a lead, this race could be fast (a track record fell to Mohedian Lady yesterday) but that’s not certain since he barely gets 7f never mind this mile.
A strong pace would suit Stoute’s Tazahum, with his York second over 1m 1f boosted by the winner, Green Destiny. His only bad result was on firm ground but he may be excused that, as the race wasn’t run to suit.
A good pace would be essential, too, for Ransom Note. He also has his excuses and is clearly thought by the Hills camp to have improved: they took him out of his handicaps comfort zone and attacked Goldikova and Canford Cliffs with him in the Spring.
You can also discount his heavy-ground run at Deauville, but at York he got very close to subsequent International winner, Twice Over, who has four Group 1 wins on the sideboard. The 5.9 this morning was a good offer. An excellent offer, if only we could guarantee the pace.
3.00 Newmarket (Fillies’ Mile) Stoute is again missing from this two-year-old fillies’ trial but three times winner since 2004 John Gosden is here with Fallen For You.
Godolphin, who won it last year, relies on Lyric Of Light, who beat Fallen For You in a tussle for the May Hill, with Samitar and Semayyel behind.
Firdaws looked powerful in her finish at Salisbury and Devotion, having a Ballydoyle ‘sighter’, could do better than last time if returning to her firm-ground form, though 26.0 this morning says she’s not ‘expected’.
It’s around 2-1 each of two, Lyric Of Light and Fallen For You: you pays your money and you takes your choice. Always lyrical, this column!
4.10 Newmarket (Godolphin Stakes): It’s David Elsworth not Godolphin who has the better record in this, and he runs last year’s winner, Myplacelater. I can imagine all the coincidence doubles Fallen For You and Myplacelater!
4.45 Newmarket (Silver Cambridgeshire): This is only the second ‘silver’ to Saturday’s ‘gold’. Last year’s launch race had ratings 90, 89 and 90 in a 1-2-3 of three-year-olds.
Actually it was a 1-2-2, since there was a dead-heat for second, involving a Jeremy Noseda runner, and Noseda has Galiando racing off 91 today. Capaill Liath is the other high-ranking second-season animal in the field, off 90.
It certainly seems to be a race to look for improvers, since only six horses – Camerooney, Classic Colori, Dhaular Dhar, Emerald Wilderness, Licence To Till and Viva Vettori – have won in this class.
Since Viva Vettori was third to long-time Cambridgeshire favourite, Dare To Dance, the grey Capaill Liath (15.5 on Betdaq this morning) goes to the top of the short-list, since he finished in front of Viva Vettori in July and has been begging for this trip. Ignore his run on soft last time out.
Licence To Till (at 13.0) has been struggling on the soft but that’s taken his rating down below some of his winning form. On races with ‘firm’ in the going return, his figures are 02301103, which is much of his win and place success. Front-runners did well yesterday on firm ground with a tail wind.
BET 1.6pts win and place ELUSIVE FLAME (1.15 Newmarket)
BET 0.9pts win and place THE SHREW (1.50 Newmarket)
BET 4pts win (nap) RANSOM NOTE (2.25 Newmarket)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.5pts win LICENCE TO TILL and 2pts win and place CAPAILL LIATH, with 1.2pts win (stakes saver) GALIANDO (4.45 Newmarket)