NEWMARKET INTERNATIONAL! There’s an international presence in the Falmouth Stakes at the Newmarket July meeting today, and big Betdaq value through the card from Daqman at 25.0, 16.0, 14.5 and 12.0 offers this morning.
ATTACK OF SECONDITIS FOR DAQMAN: Second, second, second! That was Daqman’s fate in every race he bet in on yesterday’s opening day.
They went straight down the fairway at Newmarket yesterday. The drive in the biggest field was down the middle: jockeys turning into the straight elected to go across, forcing wide those drawn high.
It was the race won by Fulgur: three of the first four home were from single-figure stalls; four of the last six to finish were from high numbers. I fancied Fulgur but warned that, as a Pricewise selection, he would be shorter than his real chance.
In fact, he improved little more than a pound or so to win – Mijhaar was the moral – and Fulgur is not a horse I’ll be following if he gets the usual 5lb-plus hike by the handicapper.
The other lessons of the day were that Sir Michael Stoute is back (if he ever went away), Hills and Gosden are still short of their usual strength, and Hannon wins more prizemoney with placed horses than most trainers for a win.
1.20 Newmarket: Only two winners in the last decade carried more than 9st: Sonning Rose (high stalled in 13, has not been firing) and Ishbelle (stall 12, may need the run) are drawn high, while they’re claiming off Sweetie Time, despite her being left on the same mark after a Listed second.
Hezmah and Tuscania are the only ones of interest in the 9st-plus quintet, with Sir Michael Stoute having won the race twice in seven years.
In fact, Tuscania each way at 6.6 looked a likely first position this morning, with the favourite, Instance, also drawn high and with only a class-4 place on turf. Gosden is hoping Hezmah goes well again fresh but she has nothing in hand on Mystic Dream. Chokurei and Psychics Dream have to step up two or three grades.
1.50 Newmarket: Again 9st-plus carriers (only one win this century) are at a disadvantage, with six of the last seven winners coming from the level of Barnet Fair and lower in today’s handicap.
Of these, Barnet Fair and Loki’s Revenge are exposed and up in the weights now. St Augustine looks well in (4lb better with Steps though he beat that one more than two lengths at Kempton). Seemingly has to raise his game again but Steps has since scored in class 3 (from Ballista and Coeus, both better off here).
Dozy Joe, whose sire’s progeny do well on the soft, was well behind Lexi’s Hero at York but only just beaten earlier by Instance, who will give us a clue in the first race.
But the two in the lower handicap who appeal are Swiss Dream and What About You, since both have done well at class-2 level: Swiss Dream was a close fourth to Lexi’s Hero and Cocktail Charlie in that York race, with the badly-drawn Majestic Dubawi seventh.
There’s collateral here, since the fifth horse, Majestic Myles (also badly drawn), a short-head behind Swiss Dream, had earlier beaten Desert Law and What About You at Newmarket and was not disgraced behind Strong Suit in the Jersey Stakes.
Desert Law, from the in-form Andrew Balding yard, and Swiss Dream come out identical horses at the weights. Majestic Dubawi, a Group-3 winner, would be close behind. Those are my three: but which will act on the ground? Balding says not Desert Law if the rain gets into the ground.
His recent history, and the recent runnings of Swiss Dream and What About You, are from races which source the winner of this contest.
I have no knowledge over my cornflakes of how bad the ground will be, but Betdaq-value 12.0 Swiss Dream, 16.0 What About You and 25.0 Majestic Dubawi all look tempting for early positions. I’ve got Ryan Moore, Paul Hanagan and Hugh Bowman on my side.
2.20 Newmarket (Cherry Hinton Stakes): Year on year, Royal Ascot produces the winner of this, which recommends Inetrobil and Illaunglass (2nd and 3rd in the Albany, which has provided five of the last 10 winners), and Shumoos and Caledonia Lady (Queen Mary 2nd and 3rd).
Jeremy Noseda would probably have gone close with Regal Realm, who’s beaten Gamilati and My Propeller. But he chooses to saddle Illaunglass. With that Albany run when badly drawn, and with the stable’s collateral form, I expected Illaunglass to be one of the favourites this afternoon, but she was 14.5 on the Daq early doors.
One reason is the rush for Shumoos because she slammed yesterday’s July Stakes winner, Frederick Engels, over the minimum at Haydock. Snag is that, when she was second in the Queen Mary, the third horse was a 100-1 shot.
This same 100-1 filly, Caledonia Lady, who was running on over 5f that day, takes her on again over the extra furlong now, yet is 14.5 to Shumoos’s 3.85.
Sifting through the collateral form, I find that Russelliana comes out about the same animal as Illaunglass, on lines through Lily’s Angel and Pearl Diva.
It all suggested that I should take the 14.5 Illaunglass and the 8.2 Russelliana, saving on Shumoos. That made sense this morning for early positions.
3.00 Newmarket (Falmouth Stakes): Royal Ascot three-year-olds, or Guineas placed, come on here to win this, which spotlights Maqaasid (3rd in the 1,000, with Memory tailed off) and Windsor Forest third First City (I’m A Dreamer 5th).
Memory ran much better in the Coronation Stakes: if you want to trust her (she won the Cherry Hinton on this day last year), she’s 9.8, until the Pricewise sheep get stuck into her. The snag, apart from past behavior problems, is that she won’t want any more rain so you need that 9.8 for two solid reasons. Maqaasid doesn’t like soft either.
But the lasting impression of analyzing these three-year-olds is that they look to have their work cut out to cope with the international raid of Group-1 winners, Sahpresa and Lily Of The Valley, and twice Group-1 runner-up, River Jetez.
I’ll follow my practice of backing the two best priced (‘Lily’ at 8.2 as I write, Rover Jetez at 9.4), with the favourite, Sahpresa, as saver but, because of past three-year-old dominance, I shall restrict my stake to the usual win-20.
BET (to win 20pts): 3.5pts win and place TUSCANIA (1.20 Newmarket)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: BET 4pts win SWISS DREAM, 2.6pts win WHAT ABOUT YOU and 1.6pts win and place MAJESTIC DUBAWI (1.50 Newmarket)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 5.5pts win RUSSELLIANA and 3pts win ILLAUNGLASS, with 3pts win (saver) SHUMOOS (2.15 Newmarket)
BET (to win 20pts): 2.7pts win LILY OF THE VALLEY and 2.3pts win RIVER JETEZ plus 2.2pts win (saver) SAHPRESA (3.00 Newmarket)
BET 0.8pts win and place PERFECT MISSION (5.10 Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win (nap) PETALUMA (6.20 Newbury)
BET 3.1pts win UMSEYAT (8.15 Chester)
LAY to win 10pts CAELIS and 6.7pts win DEAD COOL (9.00 Newbury)