20-1 DOUBLE UP FOR THAT OLD FOX DAQMAN: Our man, Daqman, was on top form yesterday when he had single bets in just two races and landed the winner of both, doubling Hunter’s Light (nap, WON 2-1) with Foxesbow (WON 6-1).
THREE NAPS OUT OF FOUR: That made it three winners and a second from his last four nap selections. The previous winning naps this week were Shamdarley (WON 2-1) and Mojolika (WON 7-4).
Don’t back horses that are all in a heap. The Grand Prix last night proved the old racing rule: if you can’t split the horses with known form, look for an improver to beat them all.
As the ratings for Paris revealed (this column yesterday), there were four horses within a pound or two of each other and, sure enough, the unexposed Meandre came along and stuffed the lot of them.
It could be the same story in the Rose Bowl at Newbury (3.40) this afternoon, only this time, since it’s a two-year-old test, you know there will be improvers.
At this stage, there are no official ratings but, on the Racing Post’s own particular scale, two are on 110, with one on 109 and two on 108, suggesting a blanket finish.
But the stats tell us that, last year apart, the obvious doesn’t happen: Frankie Dettori got a favourite home in 2010 but, before that, you needed something between 7-2 and 7-1, four times out of seven trained by Richard Hannon.
The favourite came in last year as a colt who’d tackled Group company but the norm in this is for maiden winners to score, always with the experience of between two and four runs.
Bling Bling, therefore, looks overexposed, whereas Saigon seems to be lacking in the experience essential to win a tough test at Newbury.
If Richard Hannon’s your trainer, Richard Hughes is your rider: he’s had five winners in this from six rides. It means that you are looking at North Star Boy as the colt with the right experience, the right trainer and the right jockey.
He certainly comes with strong credentials: seventh in the Coventry, fourth in the July Stakes, but is a neck behind B Fifty Two on Coventry form. So, there we go again: all of a heap.
Those with the likelihood of more to come are Factory Time, Wise Venture and Telwaar, with Telwaar capable of beating Factory Time on a line through Bling Bling and Chesham form, and both runners-up in Wise Venture’s wins have let the form down.
Telwaar’s yard is unpopular these days but, back to 6f and firmer ground after the 7f Chesham on the soft (won by the unbeaten Maybe), and now ridden by North Star Boy’s Ascot jockey, Jimmy Fortune, he is the wrong price at 14.5 offers, as I write.
Peter Chapple-Hyam (Telwaar) has had three winners from his last six runners, whereas Alan Jarvis (Wise Venture) is struggling to hit strike with one from 13 in the last fortnight.
John Hills (B Fifty Two) has an appalling record at Newbury with 83 straight losers in nearly five luckless years and Mick Channon (Factory Time) has gone nearly a year on the course with no wins and 42 losers.
Silvestre DeSousa does a double stint today between Haydock and Pontefract (nine rides), and looks sure to get a winner for red-hot William Haggas (11 winners in the last fortnight).
They team up with Shamandar (4.00) at Haydock, and with Vital Gold (6.35) and Parvana (7.05) at Pontefract, of which Vital Gold is entrusted with the nap.
Nothing so far opposes Vital Gold, as I write, but the hot-pot in the opener at Newbury (1.55), Tickled Pink, another two-year-old that showed potential first time out, is 16 points clear in the market, barring Lady Gorgeous.
My inference is that Lady Gorgeous at around 5-1 would be a cast-iron each-way bet. But I’m going to try yesterday’s trick of mixed doubles on the Daq to make this a worthwhile day.
BET (to win 20pts) 4.4pts win and place LADY GORGEOUS (1.55 Newbury)
BET 2.2pts win and place NORTH STAR BOY and 1.4pts win and place TELWAAR (3.50 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) VITAL GOLD (6.35 Pontefract)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles: Lady Gorgeous (1.55 Newbury) with North Star Boy and Telwaar (3.40 Newbury) and with Vital Gold (6.35 Pontefract)