GOLDIKOVA COULD GET SUNK IN THE MUD: Daqman says that there’s value in opposing Goldikova today because the big seaside venue in France is likely to have heavy ground. His nap is an unraced two-year-old at Yarmouth.
They’re glad Frankel’s not in France today. The going will be heavy for the mile championship Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville, and speed and flair may have to give way to guts and stamina.
Frankel sent Canford Cliffs into retirement at Goodwood six weeks after ‘Canford’ dismissed Goldikova at Ascot, but the mare is busy redeeming her home reputation after taking her 14th Group 1 in the Prix Rothschild on the last day of July.
The Racing Post is too lazy to give you the usual winning record of each runner in its form guide. It offers no ‘Trends’ for the race. And the Post website can’t be bothered to reveal the past history of the race, so no 10-year results for a major European event (though you can get the last three years’ returns for the seller at Windsor. If you pay for it).
There are no official ratings of each horse, which are estimated at: Goldikova 125, Dick Turpin 124, Planteur 122, Cityscape 121, Sahpresa 119, Mutual Trust 118, Worthadd 118, Tin Horse 116, Royal Bench 115, Immortal Verse 112, Flash Dance 103, Polemique 93.
Racing Post’s own ratings have Goldikova off 139, some 5lb ahead of Planteur and Dick Turpin but it’s never clear how their base ratings have been weighted as future ratings for each contest, and it’s worth noting that last year they had the winner, Makfi, on only 128.
My ratings are not official but it’s about time we had some; and, surprise, surprise, the Racing Post ratings for this year’s French Guineas winner, Tin Horse, are identical to those given to Makfi.
I campaigned a long time ago through Racing International for computerized ratings of all world racehorses, so that European and world events have form monitoring but not even Timeform, on the website of another exchange, can tell me how they view Deauville today though it, too, can purport to describe in figures the difference between the selling platers at Windsor.
Goldikova, who won the 2009 Jacques Le Marois on good ground, was beaten by the Newmarket Guineas winner of the year, Makfi, in the 2010 renewal on ‘very soft,’ though she took the Prix Foret immediately afterwards in similar conditions, with Dick Turpin only a length behind.
Dick Turpin seems back to his best for Deauville, and should have improved – between three and four – and made up the difference between his form and that of a six-year-old, Goldikova.
But he has failed on both occasions he’s tried racing beyond a mile and the testing ground today suggests that we should be looking for a horse with that bit more stamina.
They would be Planteur, the Prix Ganay and Harcourt winner (1m 2f and 1m 3f) and Worthadd (2010 Derby Italiano over 1m 3f in heavy ground and second to Canford Cliffs on firm in the Lockinge).
Of the three-year-olds, Tin Horse is back from a break and, as a filly who hasn’t won a Classic, Immortal Verse does not appear to be a Goldikova in the making.
So it is that I am led to Mutual Trust, who is unbeaten, has worked well on soft ground and – this is something to thank the Racing Post for – I am reminded that his sire has a stamina index of 11.3, where Tin Horse’s has 9.6 and Immortal Verse only 7.8.
Planteur was a crazy price in England early doors at around 14-1, is still 11.0 on Betdaq as I write, and is sure to be much shorter than that on the PMU, which means you have, in effect, some overs on the race, simply by betting at home.
Galileo having won the two big American races in Chicago, seems on the face of it sure to continue on his record-breaking stallion spree by taking the Group-2 (2.20) with either Goldikova’s half-sister, Galikova, or the unbeaten Arc-targeted Golden Lilac.
But again be warned that there is a heavy ground winner with form beyond today’s 1m 2f, the German champion Waldpark. Trainer won the race last year, and 7.8 on Betdaq this morning, as I write.
BET (to win the usual 20pts) 3pts win WALDPARK and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) GOLDEN LILAC (2.20 Deauville)
WIN-40 JACKPOT: 5pts win MUTUAL TRUST and 4pts win PLANTEUR (2.55 Deauville)
BET 4.7pts win SWIFT BREEZE and 2.4pts win TOMODACHI (4.00 Kempton)
BET 11pts win (nap) ALASKAN BULLET (5.50 Yarmouth)
BET 8.6pts win THISTLE BIRD (7.10 Windsor)