THAT DAQMAN NAPS SEQUENCE IN FULL: Here are Daqman’s last 29 naps containing 16 winners: 11210131311201021021111F11F12 It was a near miss yesterday when a daring 11-2 best bet made most but was collared in the last 100 yards. He’s also had four consecutive lays up.
HE SPOTS DAQ VALUE THIS MORNING: Daqman napped in a punter-friendly BETDAQ market at Kempton this morning, also nominating the first four races at Ludlow for their value.
Kim Bailey can do no wrong right now. He’s back in the Top Twenty of English trainers with 17 winners this season, going for a four-timer today via Kaffie at Kempton Park.
In fact, Bailey is unbeaten in the last week with just three runners: Agent Fedora at Folkestone, The Rainbow Hunter at Ascot on Friday and Lord Tomnoddy there again on Saturday. Skilful placing or what!
He kicks off the Kempton card with South Stack (12.30) in a race which is not a betting medium over my cornflakes with two runners blinkered first time, including the favourite but, later on, moves on BETDAQ may tell you the winner.
In the novices’ hurdle (1.00) the opposite is the case: if the Daq is any guide, we already know the winner, long-odds-on Snake Eyes. The man said: ‘I’m on the side of snake eyes tossed against the side of heaven.’
Anyone opposing the Henderson heaven, taking on the favourite, could get 9.8 bar one this morning but I can hear the trainer’s stable-tour words in my ear: ‘Has great potential.’
Henderson has won the race five times, including last year with a top-notcher, Darlan. So maybe just a place bet then. All those in the place orange (three chances of a return) were bigger offers than a win bet on Snake Eyes (one chance of a return).
The one for me is Shady Lane (huge 24.0 the win), from a good winning family for the Alan King yard. He says: ‘She’s been working grand.’ She also gets the mares’ allowance.
After yesterday, I’m leaving the beginners’ chase alone. I ‘rode’ round Navan on my nap, Darwins Fox, and ended the race pounds lighter, not just in my pocket. Best finish I’ve ever ridden on the computer chair.
So to the real race of today, a Listed, potentially starring Kim Bailey’s Kaffie (2.05) and with the orange adding up to only 107% this morning. Another Daq value race.
This time, the Henderson, Kells Belle, is a false favourite (3.85 as I write), since the form book says that Kaffie (6.2) can turn around Sandown form with her on 8lb better terms for a length and threequarters.
Easy, isn’t it? Well, no: this is 3m, a step up of half a mile. And Charles Byrnes wants to spoil the twosome: he intrudes with Knockfierna on a solo raid from his Limerick base (‘There was a young chaser from Limerick..’)
Yes, chaser, and this is a hurdle. More than us, the Irish mix it with their horses, over hurdles and fences. Knockfierna has run a couple of stinkers this season, but they were Graded chases, and he likes it when the mud’s flying.
It’s tempting when the going is deep to rule out horses with big weights but Niceonefrankie (2.35) is there on merit: he’s leapt 32lb up the chase ratings this year and was made favourite when fresh and ready to win first run back at Sandown. Too fresh.
‘Frankie’ slithered out of the race at the very first fence but that’s not form to be taken seriously, like the abysmal seasonal beginnings of Current Event (tailed off) and Joker Choker (beaten 47 lengths).
Bally Legend needs better ground and Turbo Du Ranch hasn’t scored since his bumper days at the beginning of last year. So I reckoned the 4.3 Niceonefrankie was nap value in a 107% list of offers.
The first five races at Ludlow were all in a punter-friendly 105-110% range. Evan Williams is another trainer pulling up trees (what a performance with William’s Wishes!) but he has no fewer than eight runners.
Zarzal (12.40) was going to be a Derby winner, then a Triumph Hurdle hero. He’s been neither, and he’s untried in today’s conditions though, as a Dr Fong, he ought to enjoy them. Sure to win, Evantually.
DAQMAN’S BETS
DAQ VALUE BET: 0.8pts win and 3.2pts place SHADY LANE (1.00 Kempton)
DAQ VALUE BET: 3.8pts win KAFFIE, and 1.2pts win (stakes saver) KNOCKFIERNA (2.05 Kempton)
DAQ VALUE BET: 6pts win (nap) NICEONEFRANKIE (2.35 Kempton).
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pt win doubles and 1pt win treble ZARZAL (12.40 Ludlow), KAFFIE (2.05 Kempton) and NICEONEFRANKIE (2.35 Kempton).
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, so you know the offer he took (20 divided by the stake): this does not apply to Daq Multiples.
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