12-1 JACKPOT WIN IN DAQMAN’S ‘BRONZE’ ONE-TWO: Daqman landed a one-two with three jackpot bets in the Ayr Bronze Cup yesterday which included Coolminx (WON 12-1) at 17.0 on Betdaq and Jeannie Galloway (2nd 13-2). Then he chased up Caledonia Lady with Hexagonal (2nd 25-1) to show a profit on the day of 25 points.
Sorry, but it don’t add up. That’s my Lord Sugar verdict on the Ayr Gold and Silver Cup draws. Hardly ever do they correspond – maybe twice in 10 years – with the high or low result for each race matching.
In fact, Richard Fahey’s right: there is an inevitable corollary from the Silver and Gold results added together; with nine to low and eight to high in the decade, you clearly don’t want to be in the middle. Stalls 11, 12, 13 and 14 win nothing.
In fact, there are stronger stats at Newbury, where a high draw is a priority in the 10-furlong handicap and a decent rating is essential in the Mill Reef Stakes.
2.00 Newbury (Arc Trial): This is as much a trial for the Arc as my walking to the paper shop this morning was a trial for the Olympics.
Five out of 10 winners in the last decade were already Group scorers. This applies only to Green Destiny, Passion For Gold, Sri Putra and last year’s winner, Dangerous Midge.
Of these, only Green Destiny and Passion For Gold have won with cut in the ground. Dettori will be hoping to get a soft lead and play cat and mouse from the front – he’s good at that – but Halicarnassus and Al Kazeem have been known to go on, so could spoil the party.
It might all play into the hands of Dangerous Midge, who in fact made this Arc Trial a Breeders Cup test last year, and won both.
2.30 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes): This is a four-horse contest, according to the stats, since nine of the last 10 winners were rated 100 to 108. The other winner? Well that further franks the need for ability shown already: it won off a massive 117.
Caspar Netscher (114) is clear in today’s ratings, followed by B Fifty Two (107), whom he beat at York; he also turned round Newbury form with Saigon (104) at Goodwood, and Saigon holds Crown Dependency (100). That makes ‘Caspar’ a stand-out.
3.05 Newbury: Bare stable stats don’t tell it all: Luca Cumani has won three from four but has been very lucky with the draw on two occasions. Winners in the last six years have been drawn 13, 17, 15, 19, 16 and 20.
Nothing from stalls 1 to 6 this century, but that’s where the first three in the betting are housed! Of the trio, I’d choose Cumani’s Kirthill, who was runner-up in the same handicap in which Presvis was second for the stable.
Dhaamer won with first-time visor at Haydock and cannot be guaranteed to reproduce the form; Labarinto is too short at 4.4 but comes from the same Goodwood handicap which a Stoute winner of this has taken in before.
If you concentrate on horses aged three and four (9 wins out of 10) in the high numbers, you have Jutland, Malthouse, Roayh, Naqshabban, Oceanway and Ingleby Spirit.
Yes, lucky Luca has another one with the right draw: Naqshabban. But can you back a beast that has twice refused to enter the stalls? And with Kieren Fallon deserting him for low-drawn Kirthill?
Roayh, withdrawn twice when the ground was good to soft, and Jutland, a winner only on firmish ground, have their issues with the going, while Malthouse and Oceanway are still trying to shake off the penalties for doing well in the spring, and Ingleby Spirit is a lonely dog on a raft, drifting out to 48.0.
So my fancy from the double-figure draw is Beaumont’s Party, a dual winner in the Spring and back for an autumn campaign now there is cut in the ground. Returning from a break, he ran on strongly on the soft in a race which has thrown up several winners of this.
2.15 Ayr (Silver Cup): No horse older than five wins the Silver Cup and three-year-olds are three from seven. Fahey and Nicholls are the leading trainers. Winners by stall: 7, 2, 7, 15, 28, 1, 22, 2, 24 and 17.
David Barron has been lucky to get a draw split between his two, Bertiwhittle (stall 4) at 9.4 and Elusive Prince (23) at 17.0. Dutch.
3.20 Ayr (Gold Cup): No horse older than six. All double-figure odds. Nicholls leading trainer. Winners by stall: 17, 15, 20, 22, 6, 2, 8, 10, 16 and 22
My theory here is that, with five horses drawn in the first 10 stalls, Richard Fahey will ask one of them to set a scorching pace, so handing it to low numbers.
My pick among them would be Mac’s Power (12.5), who ran well in both Wokingham and Stewards Cup, and Croisultan 16.5), who ran a cracker in a Group-3 last Sunday.
BET (to win 20 points) 3.6pts win (nap) DANGEROUS MIDGE (2.00 Newbury)
BET 2.3pts win BERTIWHITTLE and 1.25pts win ELUSIVE PRINCE (2.15 Ayr)
LAY to win 10pts LABARINTO (3.05 Newbury), and WIN-30 JACKPOT: 3.4pts win BEAUMONT’S PARTY (3.05 Newbury)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 2.6pts win MAC’S POWER and 1.9pts win CROISULTAN (3.20 Ayr)