PUFF THE MAGIC DAQMAN DOES IT AGAIN: Daqman made it three consecutive days in profit at the start of his new staking system with a power 12-points nap on Puff (WON 11-8) at Newmarket last night.
60 POINTS PROFIT IN THREE DAYS: That brings Daqman almost precisely up to par – he promised to win 20 points a day – with a few pence short of 60 points profit in the three days from seven winnings bets.
NOW HE RAISES HIS STAKE: Again as promised, his stakes today, on Pitman’s Derby day, are raised to win 35 points per race and 50 points in jackpot bets. He has 59.13 in the kitty. Let’s play the Betdaq way!
What can turn over Overturn? If allowed a lead in the Northumberland Plate, last year’s runaway winner will be hard to peg back, even off top weight, but what do the stats say, and where is the opposition with the stamina to turn him over?
3.05 Newcastle (Northumberland Plate) Only one winner has managed to carry more than 8st 11lb this century and only two have been older than six.
Both stats highlight the task facing the seven-year-old Overturn, who has 13lb more than when he won last year, now racing off 106, whereas in the last nine years every single winner falls within an 86-93 parameter.
That switches the spotlight to the 2010 fifth Deauville Flyer, racing off 93, and handicapped to edge out Overturn if last year’s race were run the same again: he ran just under 12lb behind him – at a pound for a length – and officially gets 13lb today.
But, with Henry Brook claiming 5lb, and Overturn having won the Chester Cup in an even better performance – judged on the increased distance he beat La Vecchia Scuola – it’s going to be a heart-in-mouth merry-go-round to the line.
From that best-ratings parameter, headed by Deauville Flyer, I find High Office and Nave likely to run too freely, and we don’t know whether English Summer will stay, – though bred to do so and a nice price – so we are really hunting for danger from a 6lb range between Petara Bay and Activate.
Activate is an improver but is badly off on Haydock form with Deauville Flyer, and Mystery Star makes more appeal, third in the Chester Cup and now 5lb better off with Overturn.
Investissement is a plausible choice on some of his French form but staying handicaps are not normally John Gosden’s forte, whereas John Dunlop is a master and Harlestone Times, ideally prepped in the Dunlop manner, is unexposed after just nine races.
At 8.2 and 8.4 on Betdaq this morning, I shall take Overturn and Harlestone Times, with English Summer (when are we having it?) my wild card at 18.5 under Silvestre De Sousa, who is having such a fine season.
3.20 Newmarket (Criterion Stakes) Three-year-olds have scored only once this century but this is a moderate renewal: horses rated 111 to 116 have won it five times out of 10 but this year’s highest rated is Shakespearean (110).
Libranno is expected to make this a strong pace, so I can’t fancy the 6f-only winners, Palace Moon, Awzaan and Libranno himself.
The Cheka form holds Beacon Lodge, Kakatosi and Shakespearean and, through Beavon Lodge, Redford is also held.
But I’m taking a chance with Inler: he was fourth in The Cheka race at Haydock when he lost a shoe and Jamie Spencer felt unable to ride him out. The yard had been out of form for his earlier races in the Spring and he has comfortably beaten this morning’s favourite, Flambeau (holds Field Of Dream and Dever Dream).
There wasn’t much between Inler (14.0 this morning) and Beacon Lodge (7.4) in that Cheka race but Beacon Lodge is best with some cut and, as I write, with withdrawals because of the firm ground, he hasn’t got his surface (but you may know different by the time they line up).
4.10 The Curragh (Curragh Cup) I can’t get involved at the prices between Midday and Misty For Me in the Pretty Polly but it seems to me that English raiders have the Curragh Cup buttoned up: Times Up and Red Cadeaux are clear top-rated.
But the ‘silly’ price in Ireland are the 19.0 offers about Obligada (4.40), who is better class than this field, barring Radharcnafarraige and we don’t know two things about her: whether she can act on soft and how the hell to pronounce her name.
WIN-50 JACKPOT: 6.9pts win OVERTURN, 6.7pts win HARLESTONE TIMES and 2.8pts win ENGLISH SUMMER (3.05 Newcastle)
LAY to win 10pts FLAMBEAU and BET (to win 35pts) 2.6pts win and place INLER and 2pts win (saver) BEACON LODGE (3.20 Newmarket)
BET (to win 35pts) 4.7pts win TREBLE JIG and 1.6pts win (saver) BERLING (4.00 Windsor)
BET (to win 35pts) 5.8pts win RED CADEAUX and 3.1pts win (saver) TIMES UP (4.10 the Curragh)
BET (to win 35pts) 5pts win RADHACNAFARRAIGE and 1.9pts win and place OBLIGADA (4.40 The Curragh)