FIVE LAYS UP OUT OF SIX: Daqman went to five out of six with his lays when he lambasted another handicap short shot, Labarinto (unplaced 7-2), at Newbury yesterday. His naps are running at a 50% strike rate.
I don’t do systems, but I know a man who does. Bill down the betting shop relies on course-specialist trainers but only when they are currently in form.
So, today, he has half a dozen stables to support, beginning at Hamilton with the yard which won the Ayr Gold Cup, Kevin Ryan’s.
Currently striking at around 20%, win and place, the Hambleton outfit is the Hamilton leader in terms of success with around 25%.
Significantly again, Ryan’s two runners in Scotland this afternoon are ridden by his daughter, Amy Ryan, who is two out of three for him this season, and Julie Burke, who is six out of 10.
First Bid (2.10), for the Ryan-Ryan team, has a pull in the weights with Dansili Dutch for defeat at Nottingham but, strictly, still has something to find.
However, a second big difference is the ground: it was firm at Nottingham, it’s soft at Hamilton, and Dansili Dutch has been beaten both tries on good to soft, including over CD when third of four 23 days ago.
Progeny of First Bid’s sire, Kyllachy, do well on the soft, even on heavy, but the sons and daughters of Dutch Art (Dansili Dutch) have won only twice on officially soft surfaces.
One of Dansili Dutch’s defeats was on good to soft over CD by Sinai and they are now evenly matched at the weights.
Irrational, who is the least exposed, is another Kyllachy and she’s won here over the minimum, while Whisky Bravo has dropped a grade from his second in class 4 at Bath after winning on the easy surface at Southwell.
I see First Bid as massively the wrong price this morning, with offers of 17.5 on Betdaq as I write.
Ryan’s Deliberation (4.10) does not need much eponymous reasoning to see his chance over the same CD later on, having won three in a row, two of them at Hamilton, two of them with cut in the ground.
But no wonder they’re claiming off him: Deliberation is set to give 17lb to Unwrapt, though he beat that one only three and a half lengths here.
He must also give 12lb to I Got You Babe, a horse he beat little more than a length at Epsom, and there is an 18lb turnaround for less than three lengths with Babich Bay on August form over CD.
The one they wanted this morning was Hills Of Dakota, the least exposed of this field and, one way or another, I can see Deliberation’s run coming to an end. Lay.
Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey are on the list of stables doing well who do well at Hamilton, with Fahey wanting to strike with Jeannie Galloway (3.40) before she is rehandicapped after running Coolminx to a short-head in the Ayr Bronze Cup from the ‘wrong side’ of the track on Friday.
Off her current mark, she would have been 6lb better off with Coolminx here. She has nothing to fear from Lady Paris on York form but Spinatrix, though creeping higher and higher in the handicap, likes the ground and Amitola missed yesterday’s Silver Cup for this.
‘Jeanie’ is a bit of a bridesmaid, very likely to be placed without winning, so I’ll take her as stakes saver to Amitola (at 6.0), whose stable won this last year.
Amitola has her ground for the first time since she won at Newmarket a year ago and is now back to within a pound of her mark that day.
Johnston and Fahey clash in the stayers’ heat (4.40), with their scores in the race Johnston 3, Fahey 1, since 2002, and with three-year-olds seven out of eight.
They’ve hammered into Jonny Delta this morning, since his bumper win on heavy suggests he’ll like the ground, but he’s been out of the frame both runs at Hamilton and, at the weights, has nothing to spare on Jeu De Vivre who, in turn, has to catch up on Bradbury, if Beverley form is to be believed.
With them all of a heap, it leads me to think that Fahey’s Golden Veil, unexposed at the trip, and a huge 13.5 this morning, is worth a bit each way, dropped two grades.
BET 1.2pts win and place FIRST BID (2.10 Hamilton)
BET 4pts win AMITOLA (nap) and 2.1pts win (stakes saver) JEANNIE GALLOWAY (3.40 Hamilton)
BET 3.3pts win AZAMATA (3.45 Fairyhouse)
LAY to win 10pts DELIBERATION (4.10 Hamilton)
BET 1.7pts win and place GOLDEN VEIL and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) JONNY DELTA (4.40 Hamilton)