DOUBLE-WHAMMY START FOR DAQMAN: The very first race on the first day of Daqman’s new staking strategy produced a double whammy of winning bet and successful lay.
IT’S A 4-1 WINNER: Daqman laid Kenswick (unplaced 6-1) and named the winner, Kielty’s Folly (WON 4-1). He ended the day with a small profit at Betdaq prices.
THE GAME PLAN: Unless otherwise stated, all Daqman bets are staked to win 20 points at the morning offers on the Daq. If you do the sum in reverse (20 divided by stake) you will always know the odds he took and be able to compare with SP.
DAQMAN LIBRARY: Check out Daqman’s history and his betting strategy in the Daqman Library archive.
IRISH DERBY ABC: Today’s column lists Sunday’s Irish Derby contenders in the order of their chances on the stats, as follows:
A First or second Derrinstown Derby Trial or Chester Vase, or placed Dante Stakes (8 out of 10)
B Ran in the Epsom Derby (8 out of 10)
C Rated 114 to 126 (9 out of 10)
ABC Carlton House Injury concern in run-up to Epsom Derby (knocked near fore) when this Dante winner, bandaged for the race and drawn wide, sweating up, took an outside route round Tattenham Corner and then lost a shoe in the last furlong.
How much bearing this had on the result is hard to say, since the winner, Pour Moi, came on the same wide trajectory with a sustained burst. If Carlton House had been in front at that time by as much as the ground he’d wasted and if Pour Moi’s jockey had left it that late..? Who knows.
ABC Memphis Tennessee The Derrinstown runner-up to Recital fared better than that colt in the Epsom Derby, when a close fourth, beaten less than two lengths, though seemingly only the pacemaker as he opened up a long lead.
He flattened out in the final furlong but this was a step up. From the family of Moonstone, winner of the Irish Oaks after being beaten nearly four lengths in the earlier Epsom equivalent.
ABC Seville Like Recital, he was expected to finish in front of ‘Memphis’ at Epsom, and was a similar SP, but this one was well in arrears and ran no race at all, described by jockey Christophe Soumillon as ‘unbalanced by the track.’
Seville, the Racing Post Trophy runner-up at two, had run second to Carlton House in the Dante but, whereas at York, he got the rail with three furlongs to go, only to fade at the business end, he was never really ‘at the races’ at Epsom.
ABC Treasure Beach The Chester Vase winner by a head (runner-up Nathaniel won the King Edward at Royal Ascot) was again in a head-to-head at the finish at Epsom.
But this time the verdict went against him by that margin when Pour Moi flashed home on the outside, just as it seemed that Treasure Beach had the better of Carlton House and would win the Derby.
BC Native Khan Subject of a legal wrangle when Kieren Fallon got off him to ride Recital but the jockey was ultimately banned from participating in the race, in which Native Khan finished fifth.
Johnny Murtagh had this representative of the Guineas form – he was third to Frankel at Newmarket – well placed and just about getting the trip but thought him more suited to The Curragh for Sunday’s race and has been bullish about his chance in recent interviews.
C Roderic O’Connor The Dewhurst runner-up to Frankel performed too badly to be true, 11th – beaten 38 lengths – behind the same horse in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
So it was proved when ‘Roderic’ won the Irish 2,000, beating the second horse home at Newmarket. But, sweating badly beforehand, he then flopped in the French Derby.
— Best Hello The Derrinstown fourth again filled that position in the Gallinule Stakes, one paced in the final furlong as though a Leger would suit him best.
— Dunboyne Express Leopardstown 2,000 Trial winner as hot favourite on the strength of his fifth in the Racing Post Trophy but was only fifth again in the Curragh Guineas and debatable whether this extra distance will help..
— Notable Graduate Never been out of the first two but only up to Listed class and rating of 104 seems a stone below this level but stamina in his pedigree.
BET 2.3pts win and place ONE FOR JOULES (3.45 Ffos Las)
BET 12pts win KHOR SHEED (4.05 Warwick)
BET 10.8pts win ABOVE STANDARD (3.40 Warwick)