NOW FRENCH ‘LORD FAUNTLEROY’ COULD SPRING 25-1 GOLD CUP SHOCK: With the doubts about the favourite, Daqman looks elsewhere for an ante-post bet one week ahead of the Ascot Gold Cup and finds one at 26.0 on Betdaq, though 12-1 with a leading bookmaker. It’s that ‘Fauntleroy’ Frenchman again!
DAQMAN TRIES DAQ MULTIPLES IN HIS SUPER SEQUENCE: Though a losing lay cost him yesterday in his super sequence, he’s bidding for Daq Multiples and value place offers in his bets today.
HERE’S HIS CURRENT FORM: He’s trying to maintain best results per race which currently give him the following sequence of success, translated as form figures: 13012111441201124
The French are chasing more glory. Dandy Andre Fabre, trainer of the Derby winner with the greedy name – Pour Moi – is tempted to try to snatch our gold and lord it over the lawns of Royal Ascot next Thursday.
His colt, Brigantin, is as low as 12-1 with Coral, who call themselves the friendly bookmakers, but was a massive double-your-money-and-more 26.0 at Betdaq value offers this morning for the Ascot Gold Cup.
Brigantin would have the new favourite, Fame And Glory, standing in his way, as the most likely Irish winner now that Rite Of Passage is under a cloud, but Fauntleroy Fabre will know that, otherwise, the older horses – Duncan, Kasbah Bliss, Askar Tau – have little chance on the stats.
Older horses win the Gold Cup but only as sequence scorers after they’ve won as a youngster. With the exception of Rite Of Passage, winning ages since 1997 of the new, first-time winners have been 5, 4, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, 5. And Rite Of Passage, fit or not next Thursday, isn’t my idea of a sequence winner.
The seven-year-old has had only four races on the Flat in his life and has made only seven appearances overall. He’s a glass horse, very difficult to keep sound.
Last year’s shock ‘gold’ at 20-1 was his first Flat success since the 2009 Irish November Handicap, and he’s already been beaten by Fame And Glory in the Saval Beg.
Backing him for a Gold Cup repeat at this stage is madness, as the Betdaq offers of 4.6 to win but 41.0 the lay are clear indicators. Fame And Glory at 3.9 in the orange and 4.2 in the green is obviously rock solid.
But, if we try to find something else, and we take out the older horses, we are really only left with Holberg (but Saeed bin Suroor has four left in at this stage), Manighar (not won since October, 2009) and Brigantin.
Brigantin, bred by Fabre’s wife, Elisabeth, has just struck form for the season, turning around earlier Longchamp placings with Dunaden. What’s notable about his form is that, rare for a Frenchman, he likes top of the ground.
His form figure since his juvenile days are 0221110041 becoming 11041 on a sound surface, three of his four wins in that period having come on declared good ground. Speculative until we hear more but, at 26.0, knowing someone has put their money on with a ‘friendly’ bookmaker showing half the price, we can surely have a pound.
Today’s market news is that they were betting 14.0 bar one (Sir Michael Stoute’s Floral Beauty) in the opener at Newbury (1.30). All nine still left in were better offers for a place than she was for a win. Such a gamble demands a Daq Multiples bet – she’s too short even for a banker – but (pour moi) the greedy way would be to add a place bet, and try for two ‘winners’ in one race.
I can’t have those bred to need cut in the ground (Cardrona and Satwa Ballerina) nor those from stables out of form (Gosbeck, Heart of Dixie, Misty Isles), so – correct me, if I’m wrong – I’ve got four horses left (true odds 3-1), the favourite plus 15.0, 18.0, 20.0 Tarkeeba, Emsiyah and New River, against the ‘rag’, Fairy Pose (49.0).
New River, withdrawn three times with a vet’s certificate, seems best watched, so my two against the favourite are the well-related pair, Tarkeeba and Emsiyah, of which Tarkeeba has the better entries and better family qualifications.
Sir Michael Stoute also has Levitate (2.30) – with the form heavily boosted – and Hairstyle (3.40), though that one has made no inroads into the market on Rainbow Springs (a Selkirk so may need rain) and Stella Point, fourth in a Listed in which two of the placed horses were also in the first three in the Oaks.
You have the same problem with the Listed (3.05): what can improve past Height Of Fashion third and fourth, Imperial Pippin and Poplin, if anything? The betting says Rumh can but, on her runaway form the last twice, it’s going to need one of those clever pace rides from the front from our own resident Fauntleroy, Frankie Dettori.
BET 1.4pts win and 3pts place TARKEEBA (1.30 Newbury)
BET 4.2pts win and place FLYING APPLAUSE (2.20 Nottingham)
BET 6pts win IMPERIAL PIPPIN and 2pts win (saver) RUMH (3.05 Newbury)
LAY to win 10pts VIMIERO and 3.5pts win DERAASA (4.00 Nottingham)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Floral Beauty (1.30 Newbury), Barolo Top (6.50 Haydock) and Executive’s Hall (8.40 Uttoxeter)
ANTE-POST: BET 0.8pts win BARANTIN (Ascot Gold Cup, June 16)