‘UNKNOWN’ DOES THE BUSINESS AT 9.8 ON BETDAQ: Unknown Rebel (WON 6-1) saved the day for Daqman yesterday with, as ever, better offers available on Betdaq in the morning. Daqman nominated the 9.8. Today he goes hunting for winners over the sticks at Sedgefield.
Do you follow the jumpers at this time of year? I know a man who does, and he says it’s ‘money for old rope’. I’d need a better breaking strain of line if I were to float my bank in these waters but let’s go fishing and see what happens.
Donald McCain seems to have the banker in the opening novices’ hurdle (2.15). Trainers in form, I know, is the key to success for ‘the man who does,’ and McCain’s current 80% win-and-place strike rate is almost enough to have you piling into Bhaltair at odds on.
Bhaltair is McCain’s only runner of the day and King Penda (4.15) the only starter for Tim Walford, who is also on 80% but with three winners from his last four runners.
King Penda is a tasty 6.8 on Betdaq this morning with double-your-money a place, and I would think your win stake is safely covered by the place bet but I shall take out double insurance by saving on Archie’s Wish (4.7 as I write), bidding for a Sedgefield hat-trick in this.
Springaway is favourite but looks a lay to me: he’s a glass horse and, twice before, his season has stopped dead after two runs; unless they’ve found the secret of longevity with such a 12-year-old, he is very unlikely to put back-to-back wins together.
That’s the sort of thing I’d be doing in a race like this. There’s a lot of risk, going in with several bets but, at small stakes, it’s good practice for using the Daq and the only reason I’m declaring myself now – without seeing price changes – is that I can’t make the necessary adjustments on this page, once I’ve taken a position. Since you asked!
Leading Southern trainers with one runner on today’s Sedgefield card are Henry Daly (Art Broker) and Paul Webber (Bullet Man), who clash in the second novices hurdle (2.45).
This time the odds are much too close to attempt dutching, and too short for saver bets or to look for place insurance. But my information suggests taking an early position Bullet Man.
Bullet Man has no problem jumping obstacles at his Oxfordshire stables and is a couple of grades above these, if transferring his Flat-race status to jumps.
Moreover, Art Broker is being claimed off by a yard which is in the doldrums right now, winless over jumps for more than 50 days and with its recent runners, both apprentice-ridden, beaten a total of 47 lengths.
Webber, on the other hand, has had five of his last six starters in the frame, including a winner, and with Bullet Man given an outing on the Flat 11 days ago.
The winner of this race last year, Bandanaman, is yet another sole representative at Sedgefield today for a stable doing well: he is top of the handicap hurdle (3.45) for Alan Swinbank, who has had 11 from 15 in the frame in the last 10 days.
Moufatango was hit for 11lb by the handicapper when he won in April and hasn’t been seen since: I won’t be clamouring to back him when he’s fresh.
Bandanaman is logged as absent a year less a day over hurdles but has been running reasonably well on the Flat and should have the edge on fitness. My bets at Sedgefield are based on the idea that Bullet Man and Bandanaman are destined for better things.
One they’re backing this morning as I write is Tahiti Pearl (3.15), whom Sue and Harvey Smith will have well prepared for his chasing debut: the stable has a huge 50% strike rate (four from eight) with horses first time in a handicap.
On the Flat, Luca Cumani is three from three in handicaps at Yarmouth since 2007 and, with Kieren Fallon aboard, Mundana is being backed to sail in (6.20) at around 6-5 favourite as I write.
But the early position must be to take the 5.4 on Betdaq about Al Mayasah, highly regarded by David Simcock, who is on the hot list with a fine 50% win-and-place strike rate from his last 26 runners.
BET 10pts win (nap) BULLET MAN (2.45 Sedgefield)
BET 4.3pts win TAHITI PEARL (3.15 Sedgefield)
BET 8pts win BANDANAMAN (3.45 Sedgefield)
LAY to win 10pts SPRINGAWAY, and BET 3.4pts win KING PENDA and 1pt win (stakes saver) ARCHIE’S WISH (4.05 Sedgefield)
BET 4.5pts win AL MAYASAH (6.20 Yarmouth)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and a 1pt win treble Bhaltair (2.15 Sedgefield), Bullet Man (2.45 Sedgefield) and Bandanaman (3.45 Sedgefield)