FRANKEL’S BROTHER ON A MISSION: Should you back Frankel’s brother, Noble Mission, first time on a racecourse today? Daqman checks out his chances and explores betting prospects at each of the three meetings.
Catterick Recent winners of the 7f handicap (2.50) have come from stalls 9, 11, 14, 7, but Makbullet who won over CD from stall 10 just 10 days ago, is in the low numbers (2) today.
In fact, results by draw on the course can go either way: those on the rails, drawn low, clearly don’t have it all their own way, as the papers suggest; a wide draw doesn’t put a horse out of it by any means, depending on his running style.
Cornus, Gap Princess and Keys Of Cyprus are much better going left handed but they’re all long in the tooth now and, though Keys Of Cyprus will appreciate the ground, the whips rule has me worried.
Claimer Shirley Teasdale paid the penalty – three days in the sin bin – for ‘excessive use’ when winning on him at Ayr five weeks or so back. A similar performance under the new ‘guidelines’ would get her sent to the jockeys’ Gulag, a lonely place already frequented by the great and the good, like Richard Hughes and Ruby Walsh.
I spoke to a man with very strong racing connections in Ireland last night and he said: ‘You’ve messed up your race programme and now you’re frightening the jockeys away. Irish racing will benefit no end, you’ll see.’
Meanwhile, I think the danger to Makbullet is Kingswinford, an absolute model of consistency who goes well for a boy and is backable at 9.0 on Betdaq, with Paul Hanagan’s ‘Bullet’ at 6.4.
Yarmouth Frankel’s brother, Noble Mission (2.30), is a false price this morning at 3.75 favourite as I write, for several reasons.
Firstly, he’s Frankel’s brother – his shortish odds are mainly for that reason alone – but is clearly no Frankel, since he’s been aimed at the Derby, whereas Frankle was always kept within the parameters of a keen-going miler.
Noble Mission is being regarded as a 10-12 furlong horse for next year and, as such, will have an education today. And it’s an education likely to be difficult because of rain and because he has a wide draw in stall 15 to overcome.
It’s Godolphin, not Cecil, who have been busy churning out the juvenile winners and Frankie Dettori’s choice in this one, Swedish Sailor, has the benefit of stall 2.
The market is never much help with Godolphin runners but, with Noble Mission seemingly overbet, and the one with the run behind him, Kieren Fallon’s mount, Commitment, also drawn high, Swedish Sailor looks an interesting punt at 7.4.
Roger Varian’s 300,000-guinea Derby entry Frasers Hill is also at the front of the market but also drawn high (12). One thing seems certain: it’s a race to watch with a view to taking something out of it for the 2012 notebook.
Chepstow The low-class maiden-infested waters of the late Flat season are difficult but the little fish over the jumps are also hidden away in big-field novice hurdles and trappy novice chases.
Avoiding those, we are left mainly with long-distance hurdles which I like on the grounds that, if sufficient stamina is not lacking, then a burst of speed so often is.
Well Hello There (3.10) showed a turn of foot to score easily five days ago and tries to outdo the handicapper with just a 7lb penalty before his rating is revised.
Paul Nicholls soon has his young horses tongue-tied and, if that helps, they go on the list for breathing ops, should they appear to have a future. Ramses De Marcigny is one of them, his lungs having failed to cope with soft ground.
But, with only a chance of rain, and hopefully not much of it, ‘Ramses’, who goes well after a break on a sound surface, is a massive each-way price at 9.8.
Aids are also added to Rossmore Lad – cheekpieces – but the snag with him is that, so far, he hasn’t shown that change of pace essential at the business end even of a three-miler, when it’s run on top of the ground.
The Lad’s yard, that of Charlie Longsdon, is in great form and Be My Light (4.10) shouldn’t be far away, also returning from a long break.
Legion D’Honneur and Express Leader go well fresh but My Brother Sylvest was hardly asked a question at Newton Abbot and could continue his sequence despite a double penalty.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.1pts win and place SWEDISH SAILOR (2.30 Yarmouth)
BET 3.7pts win MAKBULLET and 2.5pts win KINGSWINFORD (2.50 Catterick)
BET 2.2pts win and place RAMSES DE MARCIGNY and 1.6pts win (stakes saver) WELL HELLO THERE (3.10 Chepstow)
BET 7.8pts win (nap) MY BROTHER SYLVEST (4.10 Chepstow)
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