SECRETS FROM THE STATS: TUESDAY ONE WEEK ON AT CHELTENHAM: There are huge lists of declarations for Cheltenham but Daqman says that the winning Festival stats will narrow down your focus, race by race. Here’s his facts-and-figures analysis for Tuesday of next week.
13.0 ‘DIAMOND’ MAY SHINE IN NATIONAL: It’s the Devon National today and a very open race but Daqman finds a gem of an outsider at 13.0.
Here’s a Diamond of a bet at 13.0. On good ground at Exeter today, the young horses may hold sway over the dogged oldies, who usually come into their own in mud.
In a very open race, punters are hoping Alderluck gets all the luck (he can make mistakes); they’re seizing on Atherstone Hill’s low mark (but he’s raised in class); they’re coming for Clash Duff (but he’s high in the weights for what he has done); they’re firing their fives and tens at last year’s winner, Ammunition (but he’s 12 now), and they’re siding with Richard Johnson, though Mortimers Cross is penalized.
But in the Devon Marathon over 4m in December, Diamond Brook, then just six years old, tired only over the last four fences and it was mistakes when he was tiring that dropped him into fourth, 11 lengths behind the winner, Drybrook Bedouin.
On better ground, over shorter, and with 8lb less, he could come into his own today at 13.0, a course winner three times and ridden by rising boy star Brendan Powell. Now here’s a look at the stats for the first day at Cheltenham next week:
1.30 CHELTENHAM TUESDAY: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Horses aged five and six are eight from nine, and eight winners in the last decade had had only between two and four hurdles races.
A ratings parameter of 139 to 148, which would trap three out of five winners, includes Agent Archie, Cash And Go, Colour Squadron Cinders And Ashes, Darlan, Felix Yonger, Midnight Game, Molotof, Simonsig and Sous Les Cieux.
Pearl Swan and Hinterland also qualify on the ratings but both are four-year-olds, and that age group has drawn a blank.
Check out runners which started their careers in bumpers (eight out of 10) and watch the Irish; they’ve had 11 wins in 21 years.
2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Some 50% of winners had a high hurdles rating coming to fences – showing their speed – which recommends Menorah (162), Al Ferof (154), Cristal Bonus (152), Blackstairmountain and Cue Card (151).
Peddlers Cross (170 hurdles) is today declared a doubtful runner, switching to the Jewson, presumably to avoid the hot Arkle favourite, Sprinter Sacre (chase rating 169 but hurdles rating only 149, as third to Al Ferof in the 2011 Supreme Novices Hurdle).
Seven of the last 10 winners had already raced at the Cheltenham Festival. Three out of four winners had had a prep race in February.
Favourites have a poor record (one win in the decade), and the winning chase-rating parameter in recent years, 152-157, again knocks out the front runners in the market and recommends the likes of Cue Card, Bog Warrior and Menorah, of whom Menorah is the right age.
Horses aged five and seven years old are six out of seven, and nine of the last 10 winners had had between three and five chases.
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase There is a weight-carrying cut-off point of 10st 12lb: only one winner has exceeded that in the decade and none has humped more than 11st 2lb.
Horses aged seven and eight have the best record (six out of the last eight), with the last three from that age group winning off ratings of 143, 143 and 148, which suggests Magnanimity, Chance Du Roy, Zarrafakt and Hector’s Choice.
Nine of the last 10 winners were in the slot 129-143 but horses from 133 down could be out of the handicap if The Giant Bolster runs. Seven winners had already been seen at the Festival. The last two had prep races on February 19 and 24.
3.20 Champion Hurdle It’s 27-1 against success for a five-year-old, and Zarkandar is rated 8lb lower than the only winner of that age, Katchit.
But, though horses aged seven and eight have the best overall record, the trend is to the youngsters with two six-year-olds adding to Katchit’s win at five in three of the last four years, suggesting Clerk’s Choice, Final Approach, Olafi, So Young and Zaidpour.
Outsiders are they? Yes, but four of the last five winners, three of them with the top yards of Nicky Henderson and Alan King, started 22-1, 16-1, 10-1 and 9-1 until Hurricane Fly last year gave the favourite a second win in the decade.
Recent winners have come from a narrow ratings band – 163 to 167 – which recommends Celestial Halo, Binocular, Overturn and Rock On Ruby.
All winners since 1995 had run since January 1 in their year and 74% of them were course winners. The Irish are going for win number nine since 1998.
4.00 Cross-Country Enda Bolger, who dominated the race up to 2009 with Spot Thedifference and Garde Champetre, may be in no-man’s-land this year with horses too young (no winners in the decade below nine) and too aged (none older than 12).
Strong stats for experienced horses of a double-figure age (five out of seven) running off between 135-150 (last three winners) suggests that all below Maljimar in the field can be ruled out.
Five of the last six winners carried a maximum of 10st 13lb, so maybe the top half-dozen can go as well. That leaves only Dancing Tornado, Double Dizzy, Nedzer’s Return, Midnight Haze, Another Jewel and the said Maljimar.
4.40 Mares’ Hurdle Willie Mullins’ Quevega has won the last three runnings of a race inaugurated in 2008, ridden each time by Ruby Walsh.
5.15 Pulteney Novices’ Handicap Chase Ferdy Murphy likes to win this (two winners in the last five years) but something’s gone wrong with his planning here according to the stats: his Going Wrong is a nine-year-old with 11st 11lb off a rating of 139.
Previously run as the Centenary and the Jewson novices, this has been dominated by seven-year-olds, within a tight ratings parameter of 132-135 (four out of five).
Within these confines, you would choose from Far Away So Close, Roalco De Farges, Ackertac, Cucumber Run, Vino Griego, That’ll Do, Golden Chieftain, Brackloon High and Educated Evans.
But the first three of those are knocked out if you put a line through those above the maximum winning weight of 11st 4lb.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6pts win (nap) TULIA DE GRAVELLE (2.30 Exeter)
BET 7.8pts win GLASSAWINE (3.00 Exeter)
BET 1.6pts win and place DIAMOND BROOK (3.30 Exeter)
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