BANKER START TO GLORIOUS GOODWOOD: Jackpot sequences, naps galore and now a banker from Daqman for the start of glorious Goodwood. Follow the man who’s been in form all year at the big meetings. He found bets at 19.5, 17.5, 10-5 and 7.6 this morning.
2.00 Goodwood: Plenty of lays here in my book. Halicarnassus has had his win: since his three-year-old days, his strike rate has been abysmal, with success separated by 5 months, 2 months, 5 months, 5 months and 17 months, and the space between his last two turf wins in England has been 27 months.
Fareer’s last two wins were 11 months apart and he is still higher in the handicap. Mirrored has only ever won in April and May.
The draw seems crucial. In the last seven years, there have been five races with between 15 and 17 runners. The winners came from 10, 13, 14, 15 and 16. We have to see a reverse image now, with the numbering switched to start on the inside.
Prince Of Johanne holds a bunch of these on his Redcar second and the boy’s claim removes the penalty. Modun was runner-up at York but is a hold-up horse who could get shuffled back in the pack, and he needs the rain to stay away. Yet another earlier runner-up was Constant Contact, this time on today’s course, but the time was poor.
Jutland never runs two races alike but that’s because he must have a turning track, having scored at Chester, Epsom, Lingfield and Brighton. However, those are all left-handed.
On the other hand (pun intended), Kings Gambit, exchanging 19.5 this morning, must have a right-hand bend, is well enough drawn, and was a Group-3 winner at Sandown in the Spring.
It’s a tricky contest and the rule for that is look for the improver: that could be All Action (8.0) or Constant Contact (17.5). I’ve never been a great fan of Henry Cecil in handicaps, so I’m taking Constant Contact to continue Andrew Balding’s good run.
I’m saving on Modun. Last week someone messaged to condemn a saver of mine because it created an odds-on situation for the race. No it didn’t. It didn’t mean I was dutching or hutching.
A ‘saver’ means a ‘stakes saver’; that is insurance for my main bets from a likely danger which I consider is not value but may win. I stake on the saver only enough to cover the stakes on the other horse(s).
2.35 Goodwood (Gordon Stakes): The last five favourites (or joint) have won this, two of them trained by Sir Michael Stoute, and he’s red hot again here with Fiorente, whose defeat by Nathaniel at Ascot looks a stand-out, with the winner taking the King George and the third having just won a Group-3.
Hurricane Higgins, who was a long way behind, had run up to Dordogne at Lingfield earlier, with Measuring Time third. That suggests we have to look elsewhere for dangers today.
Slumber was actually closer to Nathaniel at Chester than was Fiorente at Ascot and is the obvious threat, though Namibian is already a Group-3 winner and Mark Johnston has got him right for Goodwood, his favourite hunting ground. He’s a big price at offers of 10.5 on Betdaq, if this is indeed a three-horse race.
Fiorente blunts the bet, as a saver, so I’ll mix him in my small-stakes Daq Multiples, and try to give myself two chances of winning on the day.
3.10 Goodwood (Lennox Stakes): We climb a rung higher here to Group 2: three-year-olds are currently 3-1 up, with Libranno trying to hold Delegator on Newmarket form but with another furlong to go. He also has Beacon Lodge breathing down his neck on revised terms after beating that one earlier.
Strong Suit had Majestic Myles well behind at Ascot, and that form is very solid, with the second horse having run up to a subsequent Group-1 fourth, class all the way.
Richard Hannon is at his best improving 7f and 1m horses, and 3.8 Strong Suit this morning looked banker material, with his clear superiority over the other second-season animals and with Red Jazz well known to the Hannon yard through his defeats by Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs.
In any case, Red Jazz is ‘the same horse’ to a pound as Delegator on Newmarket form last backend. Needs a straight track.
3.45 Goodwood (Molecomb Stakes): Richard Hannon bids for a hat-trick, and Crown Dependency comes from the race – the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot – which usually throws up this winner. Colts lead the fillies 16-14. The draw? Go either side and don’t get sandwiched in the middle.
Charles The Great has a better chance than 7.6 offers suggest on collateral form through Lily’s Angel and Stonefield Flyer, who got within around two lengths of Frederick Engels at Ascot.
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 1.2pts win CONSTANT CONTACT, 1.6pts win KINGS GAMBIT and 1pt win (saver) MODUN (2.00 Goodwood)
BET (to win 20pts) 2.1pts win and place NAMIBIAN (2.35 Goodwood)
BANKER: BET 20pts win STRONG SUIT (3.10 Goodwood)
BET 4.7pts win CROWN DEPENDENCY and 3pts win CHARLES THE GREAT (3.45 Goodwood)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Fiorente (2.35 Goodwood), and Strong Suit (3.10 Goodwood), with Catch The Eye (8.15 Galway)