FOUR LAYS UP IN A ROW: 40 POINTS PROFIT: I’mjoeking (2nd 6-4 favourite) at Carlisle yesterday was a fourth successive successful lay for Daqman, bent on another sequence after his five naps in a row last week. That brings his lays for the year so far to 9 up out of 12 for a profit of 40 points to 10-point stakes.
CHELTENHAM DAYS 3 AND 4: BETDAQ RULES WITH 64.0 ABOUT 8-1 FAVOURITE: Daqman completes his survey on going preferences for leading Cheltenham contenders and finds more huge offers on BETDAQ, including 64.0 about an 8-1 bookies’ favourite.
CHELTENHAM THURSDAY MARCH 14: World Hurdle: Oscar Whisky has won from good ground to heavy, even on Polytrack, and from a turning track (Aintree) to a hilly track (Cheltenham). But he particularly loves the mud.
Reve De Sivola is similarly tough and not ground dependent. Monksland, however, has won only with plenty of cut in the ground and his sole Cheltenham start was defeat on ‘good’ at last year’s festival.
But you have to qualify that on two counts: it was a certain Simonsig who beat him, and he was badly hampered during the race.
Bog Warrior? He wouldn’t want it fast but good ground at Cheltenham would not be a problem, says trainer Tony Martin of his eight-times winner, all with plenty of cut in the ground, from yielding to heavy.
Solwhit needs it soft. It must be guaranteed, says Davy Russell, who has considered the French Champion Hurdle as an alternative to Cheltenham, so as to be sure of plenty of give.
The Daqman column is already involved with Monksland and Bog Warrior for this race, so we will leave well alone for now.
Ryanair Chase: First Lieutenant, Sizing Europe and Cue Card have won on everything from good to heavy but, as we saw on Saturday, Finians Rainbow needs a genuinely sound surface.
Nicky Henderson told the Racing Post: I will not run him on soft ground. Stablemate Riverside Theatre, who won the Ryanair last year, was all at sea in the mud behind Long Run at Christmas, though has scored on soft.
Champion Court has won all his races on good or good to soft, and 12.0 offers on BETDAQ look good with Power and Hills down to 8-1, according to Oddschecker this morning.
The big difference in offers here is the 14-1 with Ladbrokes about China Rock, compared with 49.0 on BETDAQ for Mouse Morris’s Punchestown Gold Cup winner of last Spring (tongue-tied for the first time). But Mouse seems determined to have a tilt at the Gold Cup.
CHELTENHAM FRIDAY March 15: Gold Cup: Bobs Worth has been carefully steered clear of soft and heavy going. He has never raced on anything worse than good to soft, and half of his eight successes have been on a sound surface.
Bobs Worth has won in the winter months but prefers to feel that Spring is in the air. His form-figures for March and April are 111.
Sir Des Champs, who’s won on soft-heavy in Ireland, is two out of two at Cheltenham, both on good ground.
Silviniaco Conti is 3-3 on good ground and, though he has improved his rating 19lb on the soft this winter, I am convinced he will add to that figure on a dry terrain, if I am any judge of a horse in his stride.
Long Run has won a Gold Cup on good ground and the King George on heavy but the young pretenders are queuing up to see just how good he is.
Captain Chris has form on good going of 1112114 – on soft-heavy 212 – and Richard Johnson was emphatic after Saturday’s defeat by Cue Card: ‘Captain Chris wants good ground and I’d like to ride him in the Gold Cup.’
The Giant Bolster has won his chases only on good ground; on soft-heavy, he’s 23P2. But that doesn’t tell the whole story about this in-and-out performer.
Albert Bartlett: Willie Mullins was worried when Ballycasey went potting on the heavy – they had no choice but to run him in a real bog at Clonmel – but he did the business well.
However, seeing the maestro reach for the worry-beads suggests that we’ll see a ‘Bally’ better beast, granted a sounder surface at the festival.
Tony McCoy has been convinced that the soft ground helped At Fishers Cross to leap a significant 30lb in the ratings for just three races in December and January.
There is nothing to be deduced from his dam but his famous sire, Oscar, got Big Zeb, Rock On Ruby and Oscar Whisky to take major prizes on a sound surface as well as in the mud.
Gevrey Chambertin has learned at a slower rate but a massive hike of 15lb for his Wincanton stroll early in the new year has him just 7lb behind At Fishers Cross, although regarded only a few weeks back as ‘a big baby’, with ability shown on good as well as soft terrain.
Another we don’t know much about in terms of ground preference, if any, from the form book is Coneygree. We do know he was outslogged at Cheltenham in the mud by At Fishers Cross but he’s another ‘baby’ and a half-brother to stamina-steeped Carruthers, who battles all types of surface.
The 8-1 third favourite with Ladbrokes is Rule The World, another Mouse Morris runner from Ireland, whose sire has a Doncaster St Leger on his stallion CV through Mastery, on firm ground.
Rule The World was 64.0 on BETDAQ when I last checked the ante-post orange. He is also 8-1 third favourite with Ladbrokes for the Neptune (10-1 with most bookies) but 12.5 on BETDAQ. Again, as I did with Melodic Rendezvous yesterday, I took both offers, since the ‘overs’ allowed me to.
Triumph Hurdle: Our Conor’s family don’t seem to have any problem with the ground but French-bred Rolling Star, twice a winner on heavy, is likely to need some cut.
Far West, another French-bred, is from a family knee-deep in heavy ground horses on both sire and dam’s side. No wonder he won again on Saturday.
Lac Fontana, though bred in France, is by a German sire but I have to warn you that ‘dad’ has a very poor record with jumpers.
The Triumph used to have a reputation for shock results though in recent years has been won by strong contenders from the big stables (Henderson, Nicholls, Hobbs).
Out of all the races I have checked out in the past few days, this is the one I would nominate for a real turn-up this year. I shall be looking in the 20.0 bar, once the field is reduced to the five-day decs.
TODAY’S NAP: Sound Amigo (3.25 Southwell) is returning to his winning distance, dropped in the ratings for a shrewd stable, and with Graham Lee booked, yet was 13.0 this morning on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1.7pts win (nap) SOUND AMIGO (3.25 Southwell)
BET 11pts win SAMETEGAL (3.40 Taunton)
BET 4pts win BOLD RAIDER (4.15 Taunton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.6pts win RULE THE WORLD (Neptune, Cheltenham) and 0.3pts win RULE THE WORLD (Albert Bartlett, Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2.7pts win CHAMPION COURT (Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated
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