15.0 ST LEGER VALUE AS DAQMAN LAYS DOWN THE GAUNTLET: Daqman today picks up the Pricewise challenge. The money is down already on the Racing Post tip, Namibian, for the St Leger but Daqman argues for a close rival of Namibian’s in the form book, yet miles apart in the betting if you are with Betdaq. You can get 15.0 ante-post.
HE LANDS HAT-TRICK OF LAYS: Daqman couldn’t see the money side of Sunnyside Tom (4th 4-1) at Carlisle yesterday and opposed the favourite to land his third lay in a row, following, Arley Hall (2nd 3-1) and Rose Blossom (2nd 9-2).
TWO DOUBLE-WHAMMY BETS: Today Daqman goes on the attack with a lay and a win bet to match in the same race. Twice!
It’s a Classic Betdaq v Bookies situation. Punters on the exchange are quids in ante-post on the Doncaster St Leger next month, with strongly fancied horses on offer at better than the fixed-odds books.
Of the seven in the betting which follow the three market leaders, quoted between 7-1 and 14-1 (shortest) by bookmakers, six are bigger on Betdaq between 14.5 and 27.0.
What is more, the longest odds available with the bookies on each of those six are all beaten by Betdaq offers. The odd one out of the magnificent seven is Namibian, already suffering the curse of Pricewise.
I don’t mean he doesn’t pick winners – he has his fair share – but the odds about those he picks are inevitably shortened, because there is no other publicized Press attempt to beat the book.
This is amazing when you think about it: the only way to win as a punter is to find value yet, on a daily basis, there is no attempt, no interest even, in assessing the price of a horse. Even granted advance notice of the card (i.e. ante post) no daily newspaper tilts at the ring. Not even a mench.
One or two in the weeklies have a go – Nick Mordin is several leagues ahead of the rest – but, with Pricewise virtually a stand-alone, he defeats his own objective: the value goes on his selections before the ink is dry.
Namibian has won the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood, one of the best trials for the Leger, second only to the Great Voltigeur, which is coming up shortly on the Knavesmire at York.
There are several reasons why I think that Fiorente is better value: obviously high on the list is the fact that I can get 15.0 on Betdaq, but only 8-1 with several leading bookmakers (10-1 best).
Fiorente, who was beaten a neck by Namibian in the Gordon Stakes (1m 4f), has a much better chance of scoring at Classic level over the 1m 6f of the St Leger.
Namibian has already won the Queen’s Vase (2m) but the winner of that tends to be a stayer not of Classic brilliance and none – as I trace back in the form books that now gather dust – has gone on to win the St Leger in recent history, at any rate.
In fact, the Queen’s Vase winner has had a moderate future. Just one subsequent Group-2 winner recently, and the nearest to the Leger was Mahler, runner-up at Doncaster in 2007.
Last year’s Gordon Stakes saw Rebel Soldier beat Dandino and Arctic Cosmos, but it was Arctic Cosmos who went on to win the St Leger. The clue was in the breeding. Rebel Soldier had a stamina index of only 8.2 and Dandino only 9.2 but Arctic Cosmos 11.0.
This year’s Goodwood one-two, separated only a neck, Namibian and Fiorente, have stamina indeces of 8.8 and 12.1, respectively. In other words history could repeat itself – as it so often does in racing – with Fiorente highly likely to reverse the form at Classic level with Namibian over further, despite that one being a game stayer.
Fiorente went with the pace in the Gordon, given a real test on the orders of tr ainer Sir Michael Stoute, who did the Gordon Stakes and St Leger double with Conduit (2008). The 15.0 must be taken.
As well as Namibian, Brown Panther has also hit the headlines pre-race. Those fans who would have to take 8-1 with Betfred (there’s 14-1 best with the bookies) were delighted to see 18.5 on Betdaq this morning.
I shall wait and back Brown Panther (stamina index 11.8) only if it’s a poor Great Voltigeur. So far, like Namibian, he has slotted himself in to around Group-3 level in UK, as winner of a top handicap at Royal Ascot but more than four lengths off the winner in the German Derby.
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to win 10pts JOSHUA THE FIRST and 10pts win CODE CRACKER (2.00 Catterick)
BET (to win 20pts) 3.4pts win ALBORZ (5.50 Southwell)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to win 10pts AMTIRED and 10pts win SCRUFFY SKIP (8.35 Southwell)
ANTE-POST: WIN-40 JACKPOT BET: 2.8pts win FIORENTE (St Leger, Doncaster,