DAQMAN RATINGS CHALLENGE: RULE THE WORLD IS THE VALUE BET TODAY: Daqman has already defied received wisdom regarding the official rating of horses, warning about the inflation that spells disaster for some and big value for those being ignored. Today he declares for Rule The World at Punchestown.
DAQMAN RATINGS CHALLENGE: TORONADO IS NOT A GUINEAS WINNER: His figures suggest that Toronado is not of the class to win a 2,000 Guineas but finds that the 1,000 Guineas fillies are ahead of the game this season. It’s all part of the Daqman Manifesto.
Toronado falls a couple of pounds short of a Guineas winner. Those are my first findings, as I try to challenge the hype behind modern ratings, as part of the Daqman Manifesto.
I also find that there are only ounces, if anything, between Toronado and Garswood, contrary to most opinion, and most markets, and I shall be intrigued to see the official view in due course.
But the overall picture from my analysis suggests that, if Dawn Approach has trained on, as Jim Bolger insists he has, he only has to be the same horse to come out and beat those two trial winners.
Bolger is confident that Dawn Approach is one of the best he has trained and, even standing still from last year, he would be around 3lb in front of the trial winners.
If he has made the same progress as Toronado, we are talking about a champion performance by the Irish raider, winning the Guineas by five or six lengths.
I have plumped for Cristoforo Colombo at the odds (see Archive). His rating would rise to at least match Toronado’s should the ground ride fast.
That’s another point about general ratings: they don’t take account of the going, not even the distance in some cases!
Whereas the 2,000 trialists seem to fall short, the two hot 1,000 Guineas preppies, Hot Snap and What A Name, have done more than enough to win that Classic in a normal year.
Nell Gwyn and Prix Imprudence winners respectively, they in fact rate 6lb and 4lb better than recently required to take the first fillies’ Classic.
In my opinion, we can expect a substandard 2,000 Guineas, or an easy for a champion, but a better than average fillies’ version. Again, I went against the grain (stop it, Daqman!) and have defied logic with a punt on 33.0 Agent Allison (again, see Archive).
She challenged from the sticky-ground stands’ side when Maureen had already gone clear in the Fred Darling, and I thought she stood a chance – particularly if her stable finds better form – of catching Maureen at Newmarket.
My ratings suggest that I was right in thinking this would put her in at the finish of the 1,000 Guineas in a normal year but I now see that, if my calculations are correct, and it’s a better than normal year, she will be struggling against Hot Snap and What A Name.
Meanwhile, since the Daqman Manifesto for winners and clearsighted ratings was launched, we have been striking at the rate of four winning days out of six which, if I don’t make silly mistakes, will guarantee an overall profit.
PUNCHESTOWN: My latest finding for a potential ratings flaw is in the novice-hurdle division: I consider that Rule The World (4.20) is up there with Champagne Fever on a line through The New One.
Yet, though Rule The World has already ‘beaten’ Champagne Fever, albeit when the fizz was missing from Champagne – he scoped badly after the race – I cannot believe the offers of 2.5 Champagne Fever, 5.7 Rule The World.
There simply is not that much difference between them, unless proved otherwise today. I am willing to bet 5.7 the official figures are wrong.
TOWCESTER: The ground has dried up for triple course winner, Meridiem (4.50), whose main rival, Arkaim, is from a stable which has gone 16 weeks without a winner. Yet Meridiem is 6.0 and Arkaim 4.7 on BETDAQ, as I write.
YARMOUTH: Richard Fahey promised that Khelman (5.40) was ‘one of my best chances of a good handicap this Spring’. Things haven’t quite gone right but, dropped massively in grade, and given a ‘dolly’ maiden, the three-year-old should boost his confidence here.
Firm going is the key to Jewelled (7.25), the only horse in the race to have won in a better grade, while most others in this cannot even cope with this level: travels up from Sussex to get the ground and 9.2 is a tasty each-way price.
Catch him when fresh, on firm ground, over a mile and at Yarmouth. That’s the recipe for Barwick, and he has all four ingredients today (6.15), yet is 7.0 in a seven-horse race. That equates to true odds.
Snooky may be a bit outclassed. Haylaman and Shamdarley both blanked last season but Shamdarley might follow the pattern of improvement in others that have switched to Marco Botti.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4.2pts win RULE THE WORLD (4.20 Punchestown)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts ARKAIM and BET 4pts win MERIDIEM (nap, 4.50 Towcester)
BET 3.3pts win BARWICK and 1pt win (stakes saver) SHAMDARLEY (6.15 Yarmouth)
BET 2.4pts win and place JEWELLED (7.25 Yarmouth)
DAQMAN’S TARGETS: A standard day, each horse targeted to win 20 points. We need one winner and the lay up. I intend it to happen in the same race (double whammy) but just a successful lay would have much of the remaining bets running free for us.
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