DAQMAN LANDS THE NAP AND TRIES A 5-1 FOLLOW-UP: Daqman’s best bet, Montaser (WON 6-4), was a high stakes – 14 points – winning nap yesterday. Now he risks a 6.0 offer at Salisbury.
TRIO OF OUTSIDERS IN BETDAQ RACES AT KEMPTON: Daqman also finds some value in four races at Kempton Park tonight which are sponsored by Betdaq. They include 14.5, 14.0 and 12.0 outsiders.
Richard Fahey is back from the doldrums. And the stable’s three-wins-from-four spell during the last two days also means that Paul Hanagan is back to seven winners clear at the top of the jockeys’ table.
After three Fahey rides, the Hanagan mount at Beverley that intrigues me is Ed Dunlop’s Convention (4.50). Dunlop fishes almost the entire pool of riders and in the last few days alone has used Baker, Bowman, Buick, Catlin, Ffrench, Hills R, Spencer, Dettori, Fortune, McLaughlin and Hayley Turner.
Now Hanagan, who is 2-7 for the yard this year, gets off Fahey’s Philharmoinc Hall for Convention’s first handicap, well drawn in stall 3, and with her latest start the most promising of her maidens.
Of the trainers in form in the race, Michael Easterby runs Hurlingham back to his winning distance, 22lb lower than his last winning mark but that was nearly three years ago now and the gelding is drawn 15. David O’Meara’s Magic Millie returns to the CD of her only success but there are 22 losing runs wrapped around that win.
Bougatti, too, has a sole CD win on his CV and drops back to the winning trip after a break. Acted well on soft in his nursery career but also drawn high in 13.
Convention’s dam is Model Queen and all bar one of her progeny have won on soft ground. His sire, Encosta De Lago, has had his highest proportion of winners (25%) from good to soft.
Kieren Fallon’s boast in one of the weeklies – ‘I’m only 10 behind’ – needs replenishing at Salisbury and Kempton, since he’s now slipped 16 off Hanagan and nine in arrears of Silvestre De Sousa.
The De Sousa mount I like is Zavier (2.40 Beverley), with progeny of the colt’s sire, Shamardal, 38% on heavy ground (rain is forecast on top of an already soft surface).
At the other end of the country, first venue for Fallon today, the Salisbury going is good to firm on a drying day. His mount, Dark Ambition (3.00) looks poised for a good run but will require all the Falllon cunning and finesse from a low stall.
This race has been won by stalls 8-12 in the last four years, with the three latest results as follows: 8 beat 9 (8 ran), 12 beat 8 (11 ran) and 8 beat 12 (11 ran).
Fallon cost me on Kazbow yesterday and is in a similar situation in the Listed Upavon Stakes on another Cumani top weight (4.05), Seta, already three times a Listed winner.
Despite being by Pivotal out of a Generous mare – both shouting ‘soft ground’ – Seta has won three races on good to firm, but the departure today is her first step up from a mile.
Bea Remembered, Charleston Lady, Imperial Pippin, Fanditha, Piano, Primevere and Opera Gal have all been beaten at this level and Seta has finished in front of Anna Salai in both of her last two starts.
So I’m expecting a big show from the grey, Clinical (6.0 on Betdaq this morning), as the one to overturn Seta, aimed three times running at Group races on good or easier ground after winning her maiden on firm.
Three-year-olds are currently 6-9 in this race and the last three winners had all raced at Group level. I shall be surprised if Sir Mark Prescott has been mistaken about Clinical’s ability and the weight-for-age difference of nearly a stone should give the Derby winner’s daughter the edge over Seta at today’s trip. Kieren Fallon moves on to Kempton tonight.
6.00 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Apprentice Handicap) I fancy a bit each way on Gower Rules to return to form at a trip and on a surface he likes, which can hardly be said of any of the others.
At 14.0 in an eight-horse race for a trainer with a current win-and-place strike rate of better than 50%, I’ll be backing my second grey of the day.
6.30 Kempton (betdaq.com Exchange Price Multiples Median Auction Maiden Stakes) Fallon will be fancied on Firestarter if only because David Elsworth is another 50% (win and place) trainer right now but also because the step up in trip should suit this Derby entry.
However, yet again, Fallon has been unlucky with the draw, and you’d be worried particularly about Viscount Vert and Waspy: both have secured low stalls and both are from yards whose two-year-olds improve the proverbial ton from their debut race.
Viscount Vert was favourite on the debut which suggests he’d been working well but the negative is that he hasn’t been seen since and that’s 64 days ago. So I’ll have a pound on Waspy at 14.5. I saw her at Goodwood and, whatever happens today, I think she’s the sort to win a race.
7.00 Kempton (Lay Back And Win At betdaq.com Nursery) They say ‘top and bottom weight in a nursery’: Mick Channon has both but it’s his top one, Royal Majestic, which has the draw.
Elsworth again has a big chance: Nifty Shiftin’s one stall should help the roan maintain his Newmarket supremacy over Karuga (out in stall 12) and over Warwick also-rans, Clean Bowled (first time in blinkers didn’t help that day) and Coach Montana.
Electrickery and Artistic Thread haven’t shown much in their maidens (they wouldn’t, would they!) but go handicapping here for shrewd stables.
7.30 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap) Seb Sanders, who rides Artistic Thread, partners another handicap debutant, Rockerfellow (value 12.0), with trainer John Hills having one of his best seasons.
BET 7pts win ZAVIER (2.40 Beverley)
BET 4pts win (nap) CLINICAL (4.05 Salisbury)
BET 4.5pts win CONVENTION (4.50 Beverley)
BET 1.5pts win and place GOWER RULES (6.00 Kempton)
BET 1.4pts win and place WASPY (6.30 Kempton)
BET 1.8pts win and place ROCKERFELLOW (7.30 Kempton)