SIX LAYS IN A ROW: Daqman made it six consecutive winning lays yesterday – seven out of the last eight – when Half A Billion (3rd 7-4 favourite) at Beverley was the fourth consecutive SP favourite to bite the dust. His last six lays have been:
* Half A Billion (3rd 7-4 favourite), Beverley Sept 20
* Deliberation (unplaced 9-4 favourite), Hamilton Sept 18
* Labarinto (unplaced 7-2 favourite), Newbury Sept 17
* York Glory (unplaced 11-2 favourite), Doncaster Sept 10
* Zero Money (unplaced 7-1), Doncaster Sept 10
* Catchanova (unplaced 4-1), Kempton Sept 7
It’s a hot night at Kempton tonight. Significantly for punters, the top three ‘hot trainers’ of the moment in the Racing Post list, David Lanagan, Alan Bailey and Chris Wall, each has a single runner.
Add to that the neck-and-neck tussle between Silvestre De Sousa and Kieren Fallon, on 117 winners each, and you have a night to savour, with Betdaq sponsoring four of the races.
Fallon hasn’t had a winner in his last 19 rides but so intense is his campaign that only takes you back to Saturday and includes a blank day: his mounts have been 12 Saturday (two wins), five Monday and five Tuesday. He has seven today, starting at Goodwood.
Fallon’s last booking of the day is for Alan Bailey, currently bettering a one-in-three strike rate, on the six-times-a-distance-winner Timeteam (8.50).
Timeteam has won only sellers and a claimer in the last three years but this doesn’t look much stronger.
Super Frank and Brandywell Boy are the winningmost horses: ‘Frank’ has been beaten 26 lengths in his last two starts, both at Kempton; and ‘Brandy’ failed in a claimer on the course under the same Silvestre De Sousa last time out.
Their trainers have the following records respectively: no wins from 31 runners at Kempton in three years; no wins anywhere for three months.
Micky P is a winner on turf but the one that worries me most is Silvee: a CD scorer, she has a better draw than Timeteam. The two together at 7.6 Timeteam and 11.5 Silvee are a small-stakes dutch.
I shall try the same tactics in the 7.50 with two which are first time in a handicap, David Lanagan’s Viva Diva at 8.2 and James Fanshawe’s Cyber Star at 16.0. Fanshawe strikes at almost 25% with horses introduced to headgear.
The favourite, Waltzing Cat, simply doesn’t have a turn of foot. Sir Mark Prescott has raised her from 7f to 1m 2f, 1m 3f and now 1m 4f, twice beaten favourite on today’s course along the way.
How the Racing Post Spotlight can nap her, I know not. I’m quids in with my lays at the moment, so I’m taking a risk at 3.8 in the green. But she would be an even bigger risk as a Prescott is she were shorter, if you know what I mean.
5.50 Kempton (Free Entry For Betdaq Members Median Auction Maiden Stakes): Three-year-olds have won the two runnings of this and are in the majority today.
There’s Zoe Davison again, with 160-odd days of losers: she’s got to have a winner sometime, and I can’t find another trainer in any real form, except Michael Quinn.
He’s 60% (win and place) and Pat Cosgrave is an interesting booking for Miakora (7.6): Pat’s on top of his form with three wins from his last four rides.
6.20 Kempton (Betdaq Multiples Maiden Stakes): The obvious form horse, Lupo D’Oro, though he’s no golden wolf thus far, and the obvious springer, Athenian, are drawn together high.
David Evans has a well related newcomer, Meet Joe Black, in stall 2, and the one stall helps Meloneras to hug the rail. Pass.
6.50 Kempton (Back Or Lay At betdaq.com Handicap): Pursuing is tempting at 11.0. Nigel Tinkler, who had a winner at Pontefract last week, brings the Rainbow Quest filly down from Yorkshire, with De Sousa booked.
Pursuing could have run closer to home over a mile at Wolverhampton this week but ‘Tink’ ups her in trip for this one and her all-American pedigree bodes well for handicapping on the AW.
7.20 Kempton (Betdaq Mobile Apps Handicap): Here’s Chris Wall’s sole runner, the grey Sit Tight, with a handy draw and with his maiden win over CD working out well.
But this is very competitive. There are two previous winners of the race going head to head: Tenessee, who showed something approaching his old form last time out, and Eagle Nebula, three out of four and sidestepping an entry Folkestone yesterday for this.
Stand Guard and Classically have shared six CD wins, and Mauritino has won hurdles and Flat this year.
The handicapper is the great equalizer but he is sometimes hampered as to class: for instance, Stand Guard has been winning sellers while Tenessee has won in today’s grade and has been campaigned at class-4 level. Botanist is another dropped in class.
Point Du Jour has scored in today’s class 5, but his penalty has found him out. Can he now improve, upped by two furlongs. His only previous attempts at 10f were in high-quality races at Newmarket and Deauville. Maimonides is another not exposed. I won’t be either: not in this one.
BET (to win 20 points): 3pts win MIAKORA (5.50 Kempton)
BET: 2pts win and place PURSUING (6.50 Kempton)
LAY to win 10pts WALTZING CAT (7.50 Kempton) and BET: 2.7pts win VIVA DIVA and 1.3pts win and place CYBER STAR (7.50 Kempton)
BET: 3pts win TIMETEAM and 1.9pts win SILVEE (8.50 Kempton)