THE DAQMAN GOLD MINE! SIX NAPS OUT OF SEVEN: Yes, he’s done it again! Gold Mine (WON 13-8) yesterday was Daqman’s sixth winning nap out of the last seven, the eighth out of 10, and ninth in the last 13 betting days for a profit in that time of 127 points to 10-point level stakes.
LUCKY 13 SEQUENCE: ALL ODDS AGAINST: Not one of the naps has started odds on in the 13 days, and only one of the last 10 has been out of the first two. This is how the results of each nap would appear as form figures: 1201121111011. Here’s the full sequence:
* Wednesday: PAPHOS (WON 3-1)
* Thursday: Roman Soldier (2nd 6-4)
* Friday: Petaluma (unplaced 5-1)
* Saturday and Sunday: no nap
* Monday: SHAMDARLEY (WON 2-1)
* Tuesday: MOJOLIKA (WON 7-4)
* Wednesday: Hel’s Angel (2nd 5-4)
* Thursday: HUNTER’S LIGHT (WON 2-1)
* Friday: VITAL GOLD (WON 2-1)
* Saturday: HEAVENLY DAWN (WON 6-5)
* Sunday: SHORT TAKES (WON 15-8)
* Monday: Switchback (unplaced 5-1)
* Tuesday: COMMANCHE (WON 5-4)
* Wednesday: GOLD MINE (WON 13-8)
The search goes on, and we must follow the clues. You know my methods: no races below class-4; no odds on; and try to remember the golden rules: gambling is when you leave it to pure guesswork; winning is about value in the long run.
Bath: Only one qualifying race, a dangerous sprint (3.45); dangerous because one false move (slow start; trapped behind runners; come too soon, too late) can destroy your chances.
At least this isn’t a handicap; the only equalisers are penalties, up to 10lb. Powerful Wind gets 7lb for Kempton and Chepstow wins, one at this level; Arnold Lane and The Penny Horse for just the one win at this level.
The fillies Amis Reunis and Majestic Rose have both won lower down the scale: it hikes them a couple of pounds but both are being claimed off, and that’s another danger signal.
Apprentices don’t win this and, generally, it’s not a race for them; they’re more valuable in handicaps. In fact, fillies have beaten the colts (or geldings) only twice in the last nine years, and the Hannon-Channon domination doesn’t happen here: no wins for either of them this century, though they are indeed top juvenile trainers on the track.
Arnold Lane is also claimed off and original high aims (Windsor Castle) were lowered dramatically. Ronald Harris (Powerful Wind) and Stan Moore (The Penny Horse) have each won the race in the last five years, and The Penny Horse appeals most dropped from Listeds, in which he did far better than Majestic Rose.
Sandown: A mid-card sequence of class-3, a Listed and class-4 starts with another warning light: All My Heart is first time in a handicap (2.45), stepped up in trip, with Sir Mark Prescott six out of 16 and only one out of the first five in 17 days.
Gosbeck has already failed at this level; Gottany O’S (no marks for punctuation, Dr Koukash) dropped down to class-4 and won on the soft at Chester so is up a grade again now but should turn around earlier placings with Manifestation, who also failed when dropped in class, reluctant to load.
There should be plenty of pace on, which could set up Korabushka, a winner on firm but much more likely, as a daughter of Selkirk, to enjoy today’s cut in the ground.
But the one they wanted this morning was Stagecoach Danman, returned to this trip after a good run over shorter against older horses, with Silvestre De Sousa aboard and from last year’s winning yard.
Not much between Elusive Kate, Kinetica and Arsaadi (slowly away) on Kempton form for the Listed (3.20) but Worthington and Hawfinch – fourth and fifth at Newmarket though with Hawfinch unlucky in running – and Pink Sapphire have already tried better company.
The 10-furlong handicap (3.55) has been won three years out of four by three-year-olds, who get up to 22lb, which handicappers usually translate as around a 12 to 14 lengths start.
Some of this field are well exposed (Absinthe), and you can expect them to be found out by a strong gallop from Area Fifty One and Licence To Kill (maybe Tick Tock Lover, though they may try to restrain the grey over this new trip).
Following Stoute handicaps (Shamacam) has not been very profitable this season and this is a meeting at which John Dunlop usually does extremely well.
His Mountain Range is taken to turn around Goodwood form with Aldwick Bay, now that he has the cut in the ground which helped him break his maiden at Windsor.
Doncaster: There’s no guarantee that blinkers will encourage York Glory (7.25) a second time. Shesdastar (holds Fast Shot) likes the track, and Restless Bay may improve for Fallon.
But the one I like at a price is Royal Bajan; though a winner only at 5f, his style of running suggests that 6f will be no problem and Paul Hanagan is loyal to James Given’s three-time scorer.
The three-year-olds are 3-2 up on the four-year-olds in the 7f handicap (7.55) but none of the older winners carried more than 9st 6lb. Kieren Fallon has won on Wallis by steadying the pace from the front.
But another front-runner, Gladys’ Gal, will have something to say about that. Gladys’ Gal and Gracefield are comparatively unexposed, and I expect one of them to step up and win this.
Epsom: A modest card, with two of the three class-4s sprints on a course where a length lost at the start can lose the race itself. Catalyze and Rigoletto (8.50) were both thought worthy of an attempt at the Britannia, and Catalyze may have struck the front too soon over CD a week ago.
Folkestone: Better Be Mine (6.30) is the wrong price at 18.5 this morning. South-coast trainer John Dunlop has won this twice in the last four years. Iceni Girl sets the standard but is becoming a bridesmaid and I cant’ recall John Gosden having a juvenile winner here.
Camrock Star and Sunley Valentine could improve but need to. So does the rest of this drab Folkestone card.
BET 5.8pts win STAGECOACH DANMAN (2.45 Sandown)
BET 2.9pts win (nap) MOUNTAIN RANGE (3.55 Sandown)
BET 1pt win and place BETTER BE MINE (6.30 Folkestone)
BET 6.6pts win CATALYZE (8.50 Epsom)