THE POINT IS THAT NICHOLLS HAS ALL THE ACES: Hawkes Point and Rolling Aces are fancied by Daqman for a Paul Nicholls big-race double across the cards at Ascot and Haydock today. His nap is second favourite for the old Reynoldstown Chase.
16.0 BETDAQ OUTSIDER OF THE DAY: But our man also jumped in on a ‘massive’ 16.0 BETDAQ offer for his outsider of the day in the Grand National Trial, as he takes on Pricewise with a 10-2 lead this year. They clash in the 2.55 Haydock, and in the 3.15 and 3.50 Ascot.
1.45 Haydock (Victor Ludorum) This used to be the big juveniles’ trial for Cheltenham, with such as Persian War on its roll of honour. It can still throw up a fair tool, as with subsequent Fred Winter winner Une Artiste two years ago.
Venetia Williams has scored twice in the last five years and had another one fall early on when the gamble of the race. One of the winners was French import Houblon Des Obeaux (see 2.40 race), winner of two big Ascot races this winter inside seven weeks.
Here’s Venetia again with a Sinndar filly, Sea Claria, another over from France getting allowances which take a stone out of the form horses who carry penalties.
I’d like to have seen her race in England before now but she does love it very soft and the 9.0 on BETDAQ this morning brings her within my parameters for betting to long-term profit.
2.05 Ascot (RSA Trial Novices’ Chase) I previewed this in a column about Gevrey Chambertin yesterday, with my confidence increased because the race has cut up overnight.
The old Reynoldstown has thrown up three in the frame in the RSA in the last six years: Albertas Run (won), Burton Port (2nd) and Carruthers.
I have 18.0 Gevrey Chambertin for Cheltenham and, if he wins today at 3.25 on BETDAQ this morning, backed to win 30 points, the festival interest will become a free bet twice over, with today’s profit and a reduced price for trading off ante-post.
Many Clouds is progressive but has a stone to find on ‘Gevrey’ on hurdles form and also gives away a year to the Pipe pretender.
2.40 Ascot The three runnings of this have all had something suppressing the weights: top-of-the-handicapper failures were Cappa Bleu (2nd), The Minack (fell) and Breedsbreeze (last). The last two named, both trained Nicholls, have never raced again.
This time Houblon des Obeaux keeps the rest of them down to 11st 1lb and less. Hawkes Point and Our Father go to the Grand National Trial at Haydock but Teaforthree, Chance Du Roy and Highland Lodge all test their Aintree claims in this one.
Hennessy fourth Highland Lodge loves the ground and the 19lb he gets from the top weight should be enough: 3.85 on BETDAQ as I write.
2.55 Haydock (Grand National Trial) Across The Bay, Our Father, Hawkes Point, Well Refreshed, Merry King and Soll are all in the National proper but only the first three of those have much chance of getting in. The other three are from number 72 down in the list of Aintree possibles.
Well Refreshed won this last year from Rigadin De Beauchene (15lb better for 10 lengths today), with the 2010-12 winners, Silver By Nature and Giles Cross, both pulled up.
Silver By Nature is the only recent winner of this to carry more than 11st to victory on heavy ground and that was when he recorded his back-to-back success.
Merry King, fifth in the Hennessy, fifth again in the Welsh National, is well fancied by Tony McCoy but A P has never even been placed on him and it bothers me that Merry King still hit his usual flat spot when third to Wychwood Brooks in the Peter Marsh despite being visored for the first time.
Our Father was seventh in the Hennessy, gambled on after nearly 10 months off. Such an absence has been required for all his success, suggesting he’s quirky and must have his racing memory erased with long spells turned out to grass.
The enigma here is Nuts N Bolts (likely target the Scottish Grand National) who seldom runs two races alike. When he has put it all in, his victories (three over fences) include one over CD in November (Red Rocco, 9lb better for six lengths now, was second). But he has pulled up either side of that at Wetherby and Ayr.
Loch Ba beat the subsequent Welsh National winner, Mountainous, a year ago, was second in the Tommy Whittle on today’s course, and was unlucky not to be placed in the Warwick Classic a month or so back when a blunder knocked the stuffing out of him.
He still beat the Surrey National winner, Emperors Choice, that day, but it’s against him that he makes a mistake somewhere in every race he runs in.
Hawkes Point was second in the Welsh National, held by only a head, and appears to be today’s improver, with Rigadin De Beauchene best of the lightweights under his regular rider, Robert Dunne (claiming 3lb).
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It needs a leap of faith to trust Our Father, Merry King, Loch Ba and Nuts N Bolts, for one reason or another, but any one of them could have a good day at the office.
Seemingly on the upgrade is Hawkes Point (10.0 on BETDAQ this morning) while Rigadin de Beauchene (massive at 16.0) has form in the race and goes exceptionally well when fresh. Obviously laid out for this again by a stable in great form this winter.
The bookmakers’ take-out in this race last year was revealed in the Total SP of 123%. As I preview the race at 9.30 a.m. this morning, the BETDAQ offers in the orange add up to a super-value 103%. Need I say more, except: ‘Get on!’
3.15 Ascot All successful in this when set more than 10st 10lb were winning on good or good-to-soft ground in the last decade. It’s prompted a battle of the claimers on the heavy today.
Dr Richard Newland, who has won this race twice in three attempts, has laid out Changing The Guard, claiming off him because it’s so heavy but also worried that all his winning form is on a sound surface over shorter.
Bygones Sovereign has a 7lb claimer on board, since he’s up in the weights for a 2m 6f success on the course in December but dropped back in trip here and likely to try to outrun them from the front.
That’s if his stablemate, the novice Heath Hunter, also a front-runner, doesn’t get there first! French-chaser Lough Kent and top-weight Stopped Out also take a very keen hold. Leo Luna is interesting after his breathing operation.
Ryan Hatch takes 7lb off Kaylif Aramis, dropped down from Graded company but still with work to do to overturn Kempton places with Like Minded (Foxcub behind) and has to hit the front with precision timing. Disappointed in the Lanzarote.
The last two winners of this were Bourne (2012) and Kuilsriver (2013). Bourne is back to that winning mark and has scored at Kempton on heavy since, but he has a mind of his own these days and gets well behind in his races.
Kuilsriver also has to bounce back from two poor return runs. That’s just what he did in this last season at 33-1. However, he should have run earlier that week but, as luck would nave it, the meeting was abandoned.
So the Nicky Gifford accolade for shrewd race planning last year that I saw in one section of the Press this morning is unjustified. No stable coup, even in hindsight.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: With four or more potential front-runners – certainly Bygones Sovereign, Heath Hunter, Lough Kent and Stopped Out – it could be that not many will get into this.
But the shape of the race suggests that any horse with extra stamina for the trip, who normally lies up just off the pace, loves the ground, and has a touch of class, could defy the stats and wallow in the conditions.
Step forward Two Rockers, a 3m winner on heavy in Graded company, who was ‘all wrong’ (quote unquote Alan King) for his comeback. Very well backed this morning, second favourite at 7.0 on BETDAQ and could go on to better things.
3.50 Ascot (Ascot Chase): Favourites are seven out of eight in this, and Captain Chris was rock solid this morning, after his runaway win at Kempton.
Riverside Theatre has scored six times in February and March, has had a break and bids for a third success in this Ascot Chase two years on. Monets Garden waited three years before he did the double.
But Riverside Theatre prefers better ground and horses of a single-figure age, still with potential for improvement, dominate this (8-10), run over the ideal trip for the Paul Nicholls pair, Kauto Stone and Rolling Aces.
Cloudy Too has improved two stone in the last year but tries to take two flights of stairs in one stride here, up from Grade 3 to Grade 1. Previous Grade 1 or 2 winners are 9 out of 10, but he must go close if he is to take his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It would not be a surprise to see one of three winners, Captain Chris on class, Cloudy Too on the upgrade or Rolling Aces on potential (he is still unexposed).
But Cloudy Too has yet to win a race sent South, and his 10 lengths Rowland Meyrick romp is put into true form context by the second home, Tullamore Dew (runs 2.40 Ascot), who is totally exposed and hasn’t won a race for three years.
I will take Rolling Aces, with only six chases under his belt (half the fencing career of Cloudy Too, to rise to the occasion at 8.2 on BETDAQ this morning, with a saver on Captain Chris.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 30 points)
BET 3.75pts win SEA CLARIA (1.45 Haydock)
BET 13pts win (nap) GEVREY CHAMBERTIN (2.05 Ascot)
BET 10.5pts win HIGHLAND LODGE (2.40 Ascot)
BET 3.3pts win HAWKES POINT and 2pts win (Outsider Of The Day) RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (2.55 Haydock)
BET 5pts win TWO ROCKERS (3.15 Ascot)
BET 4pts win on each ROLLING ACES and (saver) CAPTAIN CHRIS (3.50 Ascot)
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