THIRD-TIME-LUCKY 7-1 WINNER: Daqman finally landed a Listowel big-race winner this week, after his Kerry National and Ladbrokes Hurdle bets were both beaten half-a-length at 12-1 and 7-1. He scored with Shalamzar (WON 7-1) in the Guinness Handicap.
THREE-TIME VALUE CLASH: Pricewise didn’t take him on at Listowel and both failed to score at Ayr so the challenge match score remains 101-37. They go head-to-head again today in the 2.40, 3.50 Ayr, and the 2.55 Newbury, with the trio including their value bets in the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups.
100 POINTS GOLD CUP TARGET: Daqman hikes his stakes to win 100 points at 32.0 and 25.0 BETDAQ VALUE in the Gold Cup and aims for a 50 strike in the Silver Cup at 18.5.
MISSION IS POSSIBLE IN SILVER CUP
Just three lengths covers the field. That’s how tight is the 10lb handicap – it was 12lb last year – for the Ayr Silver Cup. The Bronze yesterday was the same.
Divided races mean that the middling and moderate are much of a muchness, a large chunk that miss the cut and drop to the second and third divisions separated by a few pounds.
So don’t look at the Silver as if there’s any rhyme or reason in the placing of the runners. The old art of sneaking one in with a low weight has gone forever.
History will record that the last Silver coup came when a 20-1 Jim Goldie winner of eight years ago scored off bottomweight in a 20lb range.
Even the Gold is narrower than that now – a stone difference from highest handicap mark to bottom – and yet the cream still rises to the top.
Four of six winners of the Silver have carried 9st 4lb or more and six out of nine Gold winners came from the top half of the handicap.
Second potential edge, the draw. My bet, Bajan Bear ‘won’ on the far rail at 20-1 but finished only 10th overall in the Bronze yesterday. The result by stall – the nine in front of him – was 27, 19, 11, 15, 24, 25, 18, 26, 23.
2.40 Ayr Silver Cup: Past results of this Silver Cup are divided. Five of the last 10 were won by stalls 20, 21, 22, 26 and 28. Of the five others in the decade, four went to gates 1, 2 and 7 (twice).
Even with such a strong bias as yesterday, the draw can switch from one side to the other once the favoured side has had heavy traffic, though on a sounder surface that shouldn’t be as damaging to the turf as when they’ve been racing on the soft.
Only one favourite has won the Silver in the decade and only one went to a southern stable. Six of the last eight have seen SPs of 12-1, 16-1 (twice), 20-1 and 33-1 (twice) so don’t worry if your pick is an outsider.
The trainers who make a habit of winning this sort of race in the North, and are currently in good form, are Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan and David Nicholls. They are the kings of Scotland.
If Ryan has been able to keep Bogart together after his terrific second in the Portland, he would win this from gate 25 but that was only a week ago and the gelding has never put two runs together before. He loses his form quickly.
Closely matched with Arctic Feeling, Huntsmans Close (27) was sixth (hampered) in the Stewards’ Cup consolation and third (hampered) at the Leger meeting. He hangs, so probably makes his own trouble, and I’m surprised they don’t use the hood that he gallops in at home.
Inxile prefers 5f. Ansaab, Green Howard, Mezzotint, Newstead Abbey, Redvers and Santefisio seem best at 7f and 1m. Mehdi hasn’t won for three years. The three-year-old Lexington Abbey looks exposed.
Majestic Moon is the high-draw pacesetter. The midfield leaders could be Farlow and Trojan Rocket, and on the near side Repetition will tow them along.
Tatlisu, badly drawn when dead-heat third in the Great St Wilfrid, was narrowly beaten in both the Scottish Stewards Cup and the Goodwood Stewards’ Cup Consolation. Graham Lee takes over.
On Goodwood form, there’s nothing between him and his neighbour in the adjacent stall 8, Mission Approved, who also has a new rider, Fran Berry.
Sitting off a strong pace suits Mission Approved and, if he hadn’t been drawn lowish, would have been much shorter than the 18.5 on BETDAQ this morning. I’ll happily take that.
HAMZA THE GOLD CUP GROUP HORSE
3.50 Ayr Gold Cup What we found for the Silver Cup seems to count double here: there’s been just one winning favourite in 35 years. The North is 12-2 up over Lambourn this century (no Newmarket winners).
Surely, the Bronze and the Silver should tell us about any bias in the draw. Don’t bet on it! Results of the Silver alongside the Gold in the last five years are 26-19, 20-8, 21-12, 7-17, 2-15. So really only one double up (for the high draw last year).
No horse over the age of six has won since 1993. If you fancy Highland Acclaim or Eastern Impact, three-year-olds had a winning spree in the 1980s but only one has won since Daring Destiny 20 years ago and the age group is currently 0-22.
Duke Of Firenze should take them along on the stands’s side, where Watchable does indeed need watching, as Buckingham Palace Stakes third and recent Curragh winner, though that has cost him a 5lb penalty, which could equate to nearly two lengths.
The firmish ground may be against Group horse Jack Dexter. But Alben Star comes out a mile clear of Watchable, Rene Mathis and the like on a line through Zalty and is claimed off, so the gap is even wider. Third in the Wokingham, he was also third in the Stewards Cup off this mark.
Hamza, badly drawn in the Wokingham, has his ground today and Pat Smullen has been booked to repeat his 2012 win for Kevin Ryan. He is massive on BETDAQ at 32.0.
Fran Berry is on Minalisa, an impressive Listed winner last time at this trip and from the stable of another top sprinter, Mirza, and 30.0 this morning.
Another Irish runner, An Saighdiur, is the high-draw pacesetter, where Ballesteros and Barnet Fair prefer 5f, and Blaine is high in the ratings for his two wins.
VERDICT: Hamza’s form in past Silver and Gold cups is poor but that was with cut in the ground and he’s obviously improved since he’s been aimed at eight Group races out of nine runs, that ninth being when badly drawn in the Wokingham.
His form on good or firmer outside Group company since Spring 2012 is 101241102220 and he looks good for a place with all the speed on the low side.
Having dropped the three-year-olds, in which group Highland Acclaim has shot up nearly a stone since August, I find myself drawn (no pun intended) to the 22 stall of Significant, 25.0 on BETDAQ as I write.
He’s disguised and he’s down in the weights. Here’s a Windsor Castle placed Mill Reef Stakes winner as a two-year-old who has finally escaped from the handicapper, dropped 12lb since the start of a season which began against Kingman in the Greenham!
TODAY’S THE DAY FOR TASADAY
1.50 Newbury (Arc Trial) This race is as deserving of its Arc Trial billing as the parents’ egg-and-spoon race at my local school. The last five winners have failed to land another race anywhere in Europe!
Torrential rain yesterday made punting impossible and we’ve already lost runners in this one, and a total of 24 all told through the Newbury card as I write.
I can tell you what will finish second! Hillstar got close to Brown Panther in the Ormonde on this type of ground in the Spring and that looks good now but against Hillstar is his continued sequence of seconds, as runner-up three times at this level and higher.
But he has beaten last year’s winner, Camborne, and finished in front of Cubanita at York. I just prefer Tasaday whose trip this is. She was upsides Tapestry and Taghrooda at this point in the Yorkshire Oaks. Incredibly, the BETDAQ orange list of offers is dead on 100% as I write, a level playing-field for punting. Where else can you get that!
2.20 Newbury (Mill Reef Stakes) Strath Burn was a good second in the Robert Papin on soft ground and, after two runs, should be improving.
He is the Early Mouse bet, having taken over the market lead from the paper favourite. The others look much more exposed and were not wanted this morning. Nap on this ground.
2.55 Newbury Roseberg (6.8) looks like one of those late-season Cumani horses. Energia Davos is improving but a line through Elhaame suggests that Border Legend (13.0), who is by a soft ground, sire, could grind this out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 7.5pts win TASADAY (1.50 Newbury)
BET 10pts win (nap) STRATH BURN (2.20 Newbury)
BET 3.3pts win ROSEBURG and 1.6pts win BORDER LEGEND (2.55 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 2.8pts win and place MISSION APPROVED and PLACE LAY 5pts BOGART (2.40 Ayr)
TON-UP BETS (to win 100): 4pts win and place SUPPLICANT and 3.3pts win and place HAMZA, and PLACE LAY 5pts BLAINE (3.50 Ayr)
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