🎩 DERBY-DAY DAQMAN 92 POINTS PROFIT: THREE NAPS OUT OF FIVE: With the winners score 14-4, Daqman is 295 points in front of Pricewise of the Racing Post in their value challenge (Daqman +92, Pricewise -203). He landed his third winning nap from the last five yesterday through Erissimus Maximus (WON 5-2). All systems go for Derby Day.
🎩 DOORS CLOSED BUT ALL THE FACTS OPENED UP IN TOP PREVIEWS: Look back, look forward! These are the headlines for a Derby and Oaks day behind closed doors, as Daqman opens up the form and facts for Epsom. Check out the archives.
▪️ O’BRIEN IS EPSOM DERBY MOGUL (Tuesday ABC guide CLICK HERE)
▪️ OAKS ABC GUIDE (Wednesday CLICK HERE)
▪️ MOORE CHAMPAGNE IS ON ORDER (Friday CLICK HERE)
▪️ FORECAST DERBY GAMBLE ON MOGUL (today)
▪️ CLASSIC CASE FOR KAMEKO QUALITY (today)
▪️ FRANKLY I’D LOVE TO BEST O’BRIEN (today)
FORECAST DERBY GAMBLE ON MOGUL
There’s a talking horse in the Derby. And I forecast a BETDAQ Exchange gamble from offers of 9.5 this morning..Mogul, it seems, isn’t just talking to anybody; he’s telling Aidan O’Brien the time of day.
Though Ryan Moore favoured the Ballydoyle form horses, Russian Emperor and Vatican City, the story goes that O’Brien persuaded him that, though beaten by both Kameko and Pyledriver, Mogul has only now come good at home and is ’telling him’ he’ll win the Derby.
Beaten and beaten again.. badly drawn.. and the only Derby horse I can see in the last 70 years that comes to the race with form figures 44.
Less than 40% of starters from stalls 1 and 2 over middle distances at Epsom run to form.
As for the question: which fare better O’Brien favourites or outsiders, the answer for Group-1 races is honours virtually even: 51%-49%
🎩 EPSOM DERBY RESULTS BY STALL: Last 10 years: 8, 7, 5, 10 12, 8, 9, 14, 10, 7.
🎩 RESULTS BY RATING: Last 10 years: 108, 113, 121, 109, 119, 118, 110, 109, 117, 118
🎩 PRIZEMONEY WON AND OFFICIAL RATINGS: 119 Kameko, £186k; 112 Vatican City, £48k; 112 English King, £20k; 111 Russian Emperor, £29k; 110 Pyledriver, £95k; 108 Mogul, £11k.
🎩 WINNING TRAINERS WITH RUNNERS: Aidan O’Brien 7, John Gosden 2.
🎩 WINNING JOCKEYS WITH RIDES: Frankie Dettori 2, Ryan Moore 2, Padraig Beggy, William Buick, Seamie Heffernan.
🎩 REVISED ABC GUIDE (Tuesdays Daqman Archive): add E for good draw; X for bad draw: ABCDX Mogul, ABC Pyledriver, ABDE Vatican City, A+BE Kameko, ACX English King.
🎩 DAQMAN’S FORTUNE COOKIES: Vatican City
CLASSIC CASE FOR KAMEKO QUALITY
⭕ 4.55 Epsom (The Derby): 1m 4f; 3-yo-colts; 16 run; course closed
1️⃣ KAMEKO I will take Classic form, with Kameko’s Guineas putting him half a stone up on this Derby field. Andrew Balding also knows the time of day through Berkshire Rocco and Khalifa Sat.
Memories of Derby week when Andrew’s father, Ian Balding, had prepped a doubtful stayer, Mill Reef, in the Greenham. One of the great Press headlines – Mill Reef Is Here To Stay – proved correct. He won it and followed up in the King George and the Arc. I took BETDAQ 6.0.
2️⃣ VATICAN CITY Unlucky fast-finishing second behind Siskin in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Not bred for a Derby but Galileos have defied that before now. With Kameko and Vatican City, I’m relying on Guineas form at Newmarket and the Curragh to give us a true champion. Huge at BETDAQ 12.0 for a monster Fortune Cookies pay-out to the 20-point stake.
3️⃣ WORTHILY I need an outsider, but he must be professional with that ‘could be anything’ look. Worthily was exactly that, travelling well to win at 1m 2f yet related to stayers up to 2m including a St Leger winner, giving him a big place chance up the hill.
I chose him over Serpentine because at least I won’t have the bet ruined by tactics we’re not told about in advance. BETDAQ 40.0 Worthily.
4️⃣ MOGUL Badly drawn but said by Aidan O’Brien to have improved in the run-up to the race, and the choice of Ryan Moore. Beaten too often for my liking, including by Kameko and Pyledriver.
The forecast gamble of the day and so there’s value in opposing him! If O’Brien has coaxed his jockey on to Mogul it may be because he knows the rest of the team doesn’t measure up!
5️⃣ ENGLISH KING Badly drawn, so sets Frankie Dettori a tough task. Easy winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial, which should count for a lot in this truncated season.
Runner-up Berkshire Rocco had also been second to subsequent Irish Derby winner, Santiago, in the 1m 6f Vase at Ascot. But Berkshire Rocco is with Andrew Balding’s Kameko stable, so has that helped their preparation?
Emissary, a half-brother to Derby winner Workforce, was beaten a neck in the Goodwood Derby Trial by Khalifa Sat.. also trained by Andrew Balding.
6️⃣ SERPENTINE This Galileo close relative of Dylan Thomas has supposedly been marked down as a St Leger horse by Aidan O’Brien, leaving the punter in the dark: will he be used up from the front, or will he be allowed to relax and apply his stamina up the final hill when others have cried enough? What instructions will be given to Emmet McNamara (if any)?
In truth, he has only been given seven days to make up from a maiden win to a Classic strike.
FRANKLY I’D LOVE TO BEST O’BRIEN
⭕ 3.40 Epsom (The Oaks): 1m 4f; 3-yo fillies; 8 run; course closed
🎩 OAKS RESULTS BY STALL: Last 10 years: 15, 7, 10, 3, 9, 2, 4, 9, 3, 3.
🎩 RESULTS BY RATING: Last 10 years: 107, 99, 108, 96, 103, 102, 119, 107, 99, 103.
🎩 PRIZEMONEY WON AND OFFICIAL RATINGS: 116 Love, £455k; 110 Frankly Darling £69k; 104 Ennistymon, £32k; 103 Queen Daenerys £21k.
🎩 WINNING TRAINERS: Aidan O’Brien 7, John Gosden 3.
🎩 WINNING JOCKEYS: Frankie Dettori 5, Ryan Moore 2, Seamie Heffernan.
🎩 DAQMAN’S FORTUNE COOKIES: Frankly Darling
1️⃣ FRANKLY DARLING The Frankel filly is still a bit of a handful and Love’s stablemate Ennistymon – nearly a stone behind in the ratings – was her Ribblesdale runner-up, suggesting that, frankly, she has to improve a lot more. But she is definitely on that ramp to glory and I shall back both Gosden fillies today: this one and Love And Thunder.
2️⃣ LOVE The Derby looks a race of potential drama and upset but this one seems to be a two-horse race (famous last words): Love took the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas by storm, and it’s doubtful anything can live with the front two.
3️⃣ ENNISTYMON Took a big leap forward in running second in the Ribblesdale but needs more of the same.
IRON MAN ANDREA ON A HAT-TRICK
⭕ 3.00 Epsom Andrea Atzeni goes for a hat-trick in this race, and Ironclad was regarded as a big, raw beast last year; now gelded and expected to take a decent handicap or two from a nice mark. Drawn on the rail, and in from 8.0 to 5.1 in BETDAQ exchanges. I took 6.0.
Desert Icon doesn’t move much off his high mark, and has managed just one small-field win in the last year, when wearing cheekpieces first time.
Caradoc holds the rare winner You’re Hired on Newbury form in the autumn but that was on firm ground and he has a wide draw to contend with today.
⭕ 4.15 Epsom (Princess Elizabeth Stakes) If Love has won, her 1,000 Guineas runner-up, Cloak of Spirits, will be all the rage.
But dark horses among the fillies can overtake their contemporaries at this time of year.
Fooraat has been the plunge horse but Love And Thunder ‘could be anything’ at a big looking 6.7.
⭕ 5.35 Epsom After Ironclad and Cloak Of Spirits, Andrea Atzeni rides last years’ winner in this getting-out stakes, Corazon Espinado.
But he’s 2lb worse off with the second, Hateya. They came out of stalls one and two that day, but it’s Hateya (BETDAQ 6.8) who has the advantage again today, drawn 5 to her old rival’s 12 stall.
3.00 Epsom (win 50 nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET 10pts win IRONCLAD
3.40 Epsom (The Oaks)
BET 20pts win FRANKLY DARLING
4.15 Epsom (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win LOVE AND THUNDER
4.55 Epsom (The Derby, win 50, place 10)
BET 20pts win VATICAN CITY
BULL’S-EYE BET 12pts win KAMEKO
BULL’S-EYE BET 1.25pts win and place WORTHILY
5.35 Epsom (win 20)
BET 3.5pts win HATEYA
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