10-1 WIN, 100-1 PLACE AS DAQMAN HITS SIX: Daqman landed six bets from seven races at Aintree yesterday, including his nap, a 10-1 winner and a 100-1 third for a profit on the day of 80.50, taking him 6-3 up on Pricewise with 138.45 points profit since March 26. In race order yesterday:
✅ WON 4-1 LANGER DAN (Fils D’Oudairies 2nd 10-1 same race)
✅ WON 1-1 JONBON (Fortune Cookie and nap of the day)
✅ WON 10-11 FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (from 2.36 on BETDAQ)
✅ WON 7-2 GELINO BELLO (from 6.5 on BETDAQ)
✅ WON (place) 3rd 100-1 HAUTE ESTIME (from 152.0 on BETDAQ)
✅ WON 10-1 HACKER DES PLACES (win 50 from 15.0 on BETDAQ)
FULL COVERAGE OF THE 2022 GRAND NATIONAL: Where do Grand National winners come from and which horses are made in that mould this year? Will the going make a difference? Why BETDAQ for value? Plus all the form and stats in:
⭐ DON’T FALL FOR GRAND NATIONAL MYTHS: (Sunday in Daqman Archive)
⭐ SEE HOW THEY WON: Which horses fit the pattern? (Monday in the Archive)
⭐ FORECAST THE NATIONAL RESULT: Does your fancy like the ground? (Tuesday)
⭐ GRAND-VALUE NATIONAL ABC GUIDE: (See the link below)
⭐ DIAMOND VALUE IN BETDAQ BETTING (Friday)
⭐ DAQMAN’S BET TO WIN 100 (Today)
⚡ UPDATE Bad news for office sweep kits! Easysland, Lord Du Mesnil and Phoenix Way were withdrawn last night and replaced with Commodore, School Boy Hours and Romain De Senam.
DAQMAN HAS BETS TO WIN 100
⚠️ HEADS UP! Like every punter who has memories of the great race, Daqman sets out every year to beat himself in the Grand National with bigger and bolder ante-post bets on BETDAQ. Can his 50.0, 34.0 and 25.0 for today get him back into the winner’s enclosure?
3RD 15-2 ANY SECOND NOW 2021 (50.0 on BETDAQ)
3RD 8-1 RATHVINDEN 2019 (15.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 10-1 TIGER ROLL 2018 (17.0 on BETDAQ)
2ND 16-1 CAUSE OF CAUSES 2017 (34.0 on BETDAQ)
WON 33-1 RULE THE WORLD 2016 (50.0 on BETDAQ)
2ND 14-1 BALTHAZAR KING 2014 (39.0 on BETDAQ)
3RD 8-1 SEABASS 2012 (60.0 on BETDAQ)
⭕ 5.15 Aintree (Grand National): 30 fences; 40 runners: 4m 2f
I thought I was on a roll. After 50.0 on BETDAQ about Rule The World (WON 33-1 in 2016), I followed with Tiger Roll (WON 10-1 from 17.0 in 2018). Now I’m down to the last suspect in today’s Grand National.
The link is Mouse Morris, trainer of Rule The World, going right back to my 1985 winner, also 50-1.
I was with Mouse in the Dalys’ box at Aintree (they were running Lastofthebrownies) with the least well informed among us (me!) having a flutter instead on Last Suspect, who would pay 101-1 on the Tote.
You see, Last Suspect and my ante-post bet this year, Mount Ida, have one thing in common. You cannot tell until the tapes go up – in fact, even for the first part of the race – whether the horse will perform that day.
Last Suspect had downed tools before so was virtually ignored at Aintree, just as Gordon Elliott’s mare, Mount Ida, did at Cheltenham last time out. I had seen my Ida ante-post bet come crashing down; now she was drifting out again (she was 80.0 this morning).
Ida seemed to do the same last year in the Kim Muir, when she dropped to last but suddenly took hold of the bit and, despite offers of 999-1 on the exchange as a no-hoper, picked her way through the field and went clear.
I always divide the National into usual suspects (i.e. the old hands at the game), new kids on the block and that illusive last suspect, for what might just happen.
That regularly leaves me with four or five. This year the race is so open, I’m finding it hard to discard any of 15 or 16!
Usual Suspects Any Second Now, Burrows Saint, Cloth Cap, Delta Work, Minella Times
New Kids on The Block Commodore, Eclair Surf, Enjoy D’Allen, Escaria Ten, Fiddlerontheroof, Fortescue, Good Boy Bobby, Longhouse Poet, Run Wild Fred, Snow Leopardess
Last Suspect Mount Ida
From the usual suspects, I’ll take Burrows Saint and the class act, Delta Work, partly down to one-time champion trainer ‘Duke’ Nicholson.
‘What are you on?’ he asked me. ‘L’Escargot,’ I said. ‘No,’ said the Duke, ‘you don’t want one wearing blinkers.
They need to see all around them or they can panic in that claustrophobic pack.’ L’Escargot didn’t panic. He won (and he won the Gold Cup) but I always remember the Duke’s wise words, which have been very helpful since.
Any Second Now and Cloth Cap at aged 10 are not likely to improve and I stand by my bias against blinkers and visors on National horses. Minella Times has been punished 16lb for winning last year.
Of the new kids, Snow Leopardess has gone about as far as she can go at 10; Enjoy D’Allen is also festooned with headgear; Escaria Ten is in blinkers; Fiddlerontheroof’s yard is just not in the big time this season; Run Wild Fred has blinkers and that bit too much weight; Fortescue has had plenty of racing this term.
Good Boy Bobby is with a stable which has lived and breathed National horses as far back as their winner, Earth Summit (1998). He lacks experience for this but rates a punt at 50.0.
Then there’s my last suspect, Mount Ida. Should I have quit; laid off the overs before her fit of pique the last day?
Guess what? Gordon Elliott has put tongue-tie and cheekpieces on her. Kiss of death or the wake-up call that will stop her dossing out the back?
Daqman’s order in:
1 Burrows Saint, 2 Mount Ida, 3 Delta Work, 4 Commodore, 5 Good Boy Bobby.
I’M THINKIN OF A 20-1 STARTER
⭕ 1.45 Aintree All change! Forget those jaded after Cheltenham; search out soft-ground animals as too slow on this fast track. The ground is drying out and quality horses off 11st+ will have the best chance.
My pick is Ilikedwayurthinkin, twice a winner on good ground at the Galway Festival. Had a hard race at Cheltenham but that wasn’t physical punishment.
It was a series of hard-luck stories: ‘hampered by faller’ then ‘short of room and bumped before three out’ and ‘lost position two out.’
The way I’m thinking is in terms of the extra trip today and the booking of Mark Walsh, a jockey who has won on him.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 21.0 Ilikedwayurthinkin
NICHOLLS STAR BACK ON STAGE
⭕ 2.25 Aintree (Mersey Novices Hurdle) Third in the bumper at this meeting last year, landed a hat-trick in the autumn.
Seen as ‘a proper horse’ by Paul Nicholls, was rested during the stable doldrums and, not surprisingly, ran too freely on the soft first run back in the Ballymore.
I’m talking about Stage Star, hooded today and last-chance saloon. Nicholls is back to form: had the big winner first day and a double yesterday.
If another star is born it’s likely to be Walking On Air, saved up for this after, literally, walking away with his trial at Newbury in January.
Betdaq value 4.8 Walking On Air, 11.5 Stage Star
TWO CHAMPIONS SET IN STONE
⭕ 3.00 Aintree (Maghull Novices Chase) A race which launched Sprinter Sacre and Douvan went to Shishkin last year, and could herald a new champion today in Edwardstone. Going easily, won the Arkle in style.
⭕ 3.35 Aintree (Liverpool Hurdle) Thyme Hill won this last year but was no match for Flooring Porter in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham on the soft (Champ only fourth).
Flooring Porter had won the same race the year before, unchallenged, from Sire Du Berlais. I can’t oppose him because he jumps well and makes all, so should have no problems railing this fast track.
Betdaq value 2.72 Flooring Porter
CAP THESE GUIDES TO THE FORM
⭕ 4.15 Aintree Before Christian Williams’ Scottish National one-two with Win My Wings and Kittys Light, Cap Du Nord had beaten Kitty’s Light in another one-two for the same stable in a Grade 3 at Kempton.
Another Kempton winner, Shan Blue was second at this Aintree last year meeting in the novices’ equivalent of this race and was going to beat Kittys Light in the Charlie Hall Chase when he fell at the third last.
Espoir De Romay would have been 20 lengths in front of Shan Blue in the Aintree race had he not overjumped two out when clear.
Shan Blue looks a different animal now and a handicap blot but he’s also an unlucky horse and I don’t like making excuses for fallers.
Betdaq value 10.0 Cap Du Nord, Espoir De Romay
WILLIE THE BOY TO GET OUT ON
⭕ 6.20 Aintree If this is your getting-out stakes, best side with Willie Mullins, who won the mares’ bumper on the opening day and now saddles Rath Gaul Boy.
Betdaq value 4.8 Rath Gaul Boy
1.45 Aintree (win 50, place 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 2.5pts win and place ILIKEDWAYURTHINKIN
2.25 Aintree (win 20)
BET 5pts win WALKING ON AIR
BET 2pts win STAGE STAR
FORTUNE COOKIE, supernap
BET 20pts win EDWARDSTONE
3.35 Aintree (win 20)
BET 12pts win FLOORING PORTER
4.15 Aintree (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win CAP DU NORD
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win ESPOIR DE ROMAY
5.15 Aintree (ante-post and today)
BET 3pts to win 100 MOUNT IDA (BETDAQ 34.0)
BET 1pt to win 50 COMMODORE (BETDAQ 51.0)
BET 2pts to win 50 BURROWS SAINT (BETDAQ 25.0)
TODAY: BET 1pt to win 50 GOOD BOY BOBBY (BETDAQ 50.0)
(Saver) BET 2.4pts win DELTA WORK (BETDAQ 13.5)
FIVE-PLACE MARKET (win 20): 3pts Commodore, Good Boy Bobby
6.20 Aintree (win 20)
BET 5pts win RATH GAUL BOY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.