IT’S NO MIRAGE! IT’S AN 11-2 WIN: Daqman’s best pick in his last nine betting races have finished 123122121 over Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. He scored with Red Treasure (WON 7-2) and Juliet Sierra (WON 9-2), then won two races out of three yesterday:
Friday: profit on the day 13.50
WON 11-2 DUBAI MIRAGE (BETDAQ XSP 8.02)
WON 4-5 KHANJAR
BULL’S-EYE BETS HAVE 93 TO BEAT: Bull’s-eye bets are back today after winning 93.15 points last weekend over the Bank Holiday with winners Saturday, Sunday, Monday which were all big value on BETDAQ:
WON 11-1 I’M A GAMBLER (BETDAQ 14.0)
WON 11-2 MISS CANDY (BETDAQ 8.8)
WON 5-1 SARATOGA GOLD (BETDAQ 9.9)
BLINKERS COULD BOOST BAD BOY
⚠️ HEADS UP There were 19 non-runners announced at Haydock this morning after the ground firmed up overnight. Rain was forecast but was reckoned only enough to ease the going to good to firm.
⭕ 1.45 Haydock (Superior Mile, Group 3) Marie’s Diamond has been placed four times beyond a mile but has won only a small handicap in more than two years now.
The unexposed Triple Time is going for a Haydock hat-trick but he’s been absent since this meeting last year.
The better-rated three-year-olds in the race are reaching for the headgear: visor first time on Reach For The Moon and blinkers newly fitted on Bayside Boy, whose Roger Varian yard is currently on 5-10. William Buick (6-10) rides.
Though he pipped Reach For The Moon in the Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old, Bayside Boy is an irksome blighter who has always needed blinkers in my view. This is made for him if they work.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 5.0 Bayside Boy
FRANKIE WILL WAKE UP LULLABY
⭕ 2.20 Haydock (1m 6f 3yo handicap) Four hat-trick bidders but can any of them beat the draw? Stall 13 means that the filly, Tamilla, who has never raced over 1m 6f before, will find it difficult to take a position. So, too, Sophiesticate, coming out of 11.
The grey Irish Lullaby will need all Frankie Dettori’s skills to pilot her home from stall 9 round that everlasting left–hand bend.
Pons Aelius has raced 10 times this season, second five out of six: he has the stamina but seemingly not the class. He’s 11lb better off for just over a length with Thundering but clearly hasn’t made the same progress.
One who likes to come from the rear, Thundering has shown continual improvement – 13lb since June – but that’s put him higher in the handicap than any winner of this in the decade.
BETDAQ value 10.5 Irish Lullaby
HALIPHON EBOR FORM BOOSTER
⭕ 2.55 Haydock (1m 6f open handicap, Old Borough Cup) This is the old man’s version of the previous race, with Euchen Glen, the winner in 2020, and Reshoun, who scored in 2018, back for more along with last year’s winner, Island Brave, all three 8 and 9 years of age.
Hollie Doyle has won four races on Amtiyaz but he goes with the pace, which will mean coming across from stall 14.
Third in the Chester Cup, fourth in the Northumberland Plate, Rajinsky (stall 3) is likely to be thereabouts. I expect to see him up there with Golden Flame (4).
Reshoun’s yard also saddles Haliphon, who beat Alfred Boucher at Chester before that one ran second in the Ebor. Can tuck in from the one stall.
LAYS LOGIC Overnight favourite Contact is a course winner but has failed in three attempts at 1m 6f (form 040).
BETDAQ value 11.0 Amtiyaz, 14.5 Haliphon
CABINET VERDICT: BETDAQ 18.0
⭕ 2.40 Kempton (London Mile Series Final): Strange goings-on in this in 2017 when an outsider drawn 16 was switched right across to the inner rail, and the lower numbers, taken along by the pace, finished 1-2-3 from 8, 7, 5.
But around that result, winners by stall between 2014 and 2021 were 10, 12, 14 (three times) and 16.
And in the race today the 10 previous winners in double-figure fields over the Kempton CD won from 5, 6 (twice), 7 (three times), 10 and 11.
So I would not be terribly keen on stalls one-to-four and I would eliminate three-year-olds (0-10) and horses over the age of five (1-10).
I’m left looking at Billy Mill, Dutch Decoy, Fantasy Believer, First View and Spirit Of The Bay.
First View’s form over this Kempton mile is 112 and he was not disgraced attempting 1m 2.5f in the John Smith’s Cup at York. Though out of the frame, he was put up a pound!
Fantasy Believer (rated 88) has been beaten 14 times in two years off ratings above 86. Spirit Of The Bay is also at least 7lb too high on the form book, his last Kempton strike coming off 74.
Billy Mill has never won above class 5 but Dutch Decoy has won three times in two months, climbing the ranks – class 4 class 3, class 2 – under Oliver Stammers.
Dutch Decoy’s stablemate, Cabinet Maker, is 311 at Kempton and has a very light weight (from stall 13) to attempt a rare victory for the three-year-olds.
Morgan Fairy is a William Haggas filly so must be considered as a winner here and at Newbury, but she’s a tail-swisher and too often slowly away.
BETDAQ value 6.4 First View, 12.0 Dutch Decoy, 18.0 Cabinet Maker,
LOW DRAW ‘GO’ IN THE SPRINT
⭕ 3.30 Haydock (Sprint Cup): We saw in my preview stats that stalls 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 have shared seven wins in the decade, and three-year-olds, who receive a 2lb allowance, have won six out of 11.
Two qualifiers on both counts and they are old rivals: Dubawi Legend (stall 4) has been beaten by Go Bears Go (6) in both the Hackwood at Newbury and the Phoenix Sprint at the Curragh.
The question of the race, hardly solved by the stats, is whether Go Bears Go can avenge his Hackwood defeat by Minzaal (7) on the same terms and from adjacent stalls!
Rohaan (11) was behind Minzaal, Go Bears Go and Dubawi Legend in the Hackwood after winning the Wokingham.
Last year’s winner of this Sprint Cup was Emaraaty Ana (was in stall 6, now in 13), who finished well in the Nunthorpe recently.
Art Power, fifth last year, is a fresh horse today who can literally power out of the one stall and set them a task, but with a better chance if the forecast rain actually gets into the ground.
Another coming fresh to this after one race back is Castle Star (17); runner-up to Go Bears Go in the Railway Stakes in June last year but had the Bears behind him when an unlucky second (not clear run) in the Middle Park. Can he recoup his old form?
Brad The Brief won two Group-2 heats on softish ground back to back when switched from Tom Dascombe to Hugo Palmer in the Spring, and is a dual winner at Haydock. Difficult draw in 15 and ground unlikely to come for him.
Khaadem (12) prefers firmish ground and 5f. Naval Crown is a 7f and mile winner but won the Jubilee (6f) at Royal Ascot off a strong pace from British Champion sprinter, stablemate Creative Force.
BETDAQ value 5.7 Naval Crown, 15.0 Go Bears Go, 28.0 Castle Star
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.45 Haydock (win 20, nap)
BET 5pts win BAYSIDE BOY
2.20 Haydock (win 50)
BET 5.25pts win IRISH LULLABY
2.55 Haydock (win 50)
BET 5pts win AMTIYAZ
BET 3.75pts win HALIPHON
2.40 Kempton (win 50)
BET 4.5pts win DUTCH DECOY
BET 3pts win CABINET MAKER
BET 2pts to win 10 (saver) FIRST VIEW
3.30 Haydock (win 50 x 2, win 20)
BET 3.5pts win GO BEARS GO
BET 1.8pts win CASTLE STAR
BET 4.25pts win NAVAL CROWN
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