DAQMAN CUP VERDICT: ‘HAYLEY TURNER TAKES JOCKEYS’ VINO’: Europe to win the Shergar Cup but the Silver Saddle to Hayley Turner. That’s how Daqman sees the outcome as he takes on Pricewise in the individual Ascot races, plus one at Newmarket, and a supernap at Haydock. Currents standings:
Daqman 54 Pricewise 26 (Daqman 296 points clear to 10pt stakes)
Bull’s-eye naps (6-12) 264 points up to recommended stakes
Supernaps (17-24) 116 points up to 20pt stakes
🔹 THE KNIGHT’S TEMPLATE LOOKS GOOD
🔹 WELCOME TO THE GERMAN CHAMPION
🔹 JAPAN’S FEMALE ACE LETS KOEMAN IN
🔹 HO POWER WITHOUT NICKLAUS DRIVE
🔹 BACK DANNY ON THE CLASSY BOERHAN
🔹 HAYLEY TURNER TAKES JOCKEYS’ VINO
THE KNIGHT’S TEMPLATE LOOKS GOOD
1.05 Ascot (Shergar Cup Dash) The stats help to focus our attention on the winningmost area of a handicap. We have to rely on these edges because the man consistently informed is the handicapper, and we need to better him somehow.
In his base ratings he may have equalised this field in a 10lb weight range but he could not reassess (and create future ratings) using the age and draw of the horses, form of the stables and the going as they assemble on this singular occasion.
Only one winner has been over the age of five in 10 seasons (none were three-year-olds). Only two have been drawn lower than stall 7. None in nine years has been bigger than 6-1 SP.
All this gives us a bit of a chance. So should we rush to back Corinthia Knight at 9.0 on BETDAQ, the sole contender this morning likely to tick every box?
In theory, the only danger on the stats is if something drops out and Green Power gets a run; aged four, drawn 9 and one of just three course winners in the race, he scored at the recent Glorious Goodwood meeting.
But it’s never that easy. Corinthia Knight has won 10 races but just the one on turf, and we have to contend with this afternoon’s game of ‘musical jockeys’. We’ve drawn Adrie De Vries, Netherlands veteran of 50, who has been champion jockey in Qatar and won last year’s German Derby.
There is a morsel of good news for Corinthia Knight backers: Adrie has been in this competition before, winning the stayers’ race on this day in 2017. And Gerald Mosse, who rides the favourite is even older at 52.
In fact, he’s on the class horse of this race, 4.0 favourite Danzeno, Group 1 and Group 3 placed at Ascot before reverting to handicaps (third and fifth in the Wokingham).
His Ascot form at 5f is one run, one win and, though raced 30 times at 6f, his 5f returns in England outside the Pattern are 111. So I think this race a country for old men, Gerald and Adrie. Good luck, lads!
WELCOME TO THE GERMAN CHAMPION
1.40 Ascot (Stayers) Adrie de Vries’ partner in the Europe team for this Shergar Cup is four-times German champion jockey Filip Minarik, who is shortest price among the men for the Silver Saddle behind Japan’s female history-maker Nanako Fujita, who can claim 3lb today.
With What A Welcome and Blue Laureate respectively, the pair form the front-of-market opposition in this to Danny Tudhope on Billy Ray, a winner on soft and heavy, who has run some good races in this class 2 but has won only a grade lower.
What A Welcome’s chance revolves around his Ascot course form of 411. The two wins completed a hat-trick for him last backend, giving him eight wins from nine, going through the grades and steadily up in trip from 1m 2f to 2m.
Unfancied the last twice at 20-1, and dropped a couple of pounds, so poised for a return to form, and backed accordingly last night. He was 6.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
Time To Study (offers of 9.6) has dropped more than a stone since this time last year, and the Ascot Stakes third in June would be favoured by rain.
JAPAN’S FEMALE ACE LETS KOEMAN IN
2.15 Ascot (Challenge) Nanako Fujiota’s 3lb claim could help 24.0 BETDAQ outsider Koeman in this. As soon as he saw the draw for jockeys, trainer Mick Channon withdrew Koeman from Newmarket last night and switched to this race.
Mick was jumping at the chance of cutting a bit of slack for Koeman who is 7lb higher than when winning at Ascot last July then, when favourite for this Challenge a year ago, was not given a hard time after one went clear and, literally, left the Challenge hopes with no chance to challenge!
Sir Michael Stoute, who scores 50% winners in this type of race here, now has Melting Dew (6.4 offers taken) just about down to the mark of back-to-back wins last June-July, with cheekpieces back on.
Good second on soft in big handicap here at Ascot in the autumn of 2017, and narrowly pipped for the Summer Handicap at Glorious Goodwood in August 2018. Hayley Turner knows this Shergar game.
HO POWER WITHOUT NICKLAUS DRIVE
2.50 Ascot (Mile) Again, older horses (over the age of five) have only a 10% chance of winning this, if stats for the decade are to be believed. And five of the last six winners have been drawn 9 or 12.
Last year’s winner, Via Serendipity, is still only five, but the third home that day, Zwayyan, has black marks against him: he’s six now; 8lb higher than when winning here in 2017, now giving weight to Via Serendipity; and from a stable out of form.
Marcus Tregoning, who won this with the favourite, Boom And Bust, in 2014 from the one stall, now has another (morning) favourite, Power Of Darkness, out of 2.
Well backed when betting opened, with his jockey Vincent Ho from Hong Kong, arriving in England early to get some experience, and winning 3-7 (at Ayr, Musselburgh and Hamilton).
Nicklaus (first reserve, well drawn in 12) is 4lb better off to overturn a half-length defeat by Power Of Darkness at Salisbury in June, so we have to cross our fingers that nothing drops out and lets Nicklaus into the race.
BACK DANNY ON THE CLASSY BOERHAN
3.25 Ascot (Classic) Eight winners in the decade were drawn from 5 to 8, with the overnight money for stall 7, but Never Do Nothing is with Andrew Balding, who has gone 30 runners without a win.
Never Do Nothing is one of several runners here who have had a long season already, but Boerhan is lightly raced but highly tried in Pattern company. The drop in class and drawing Danny Tudhope in the jockey-go-round made 7.8 appealing this morning.
Another unexposed is Zuba (9.0 offers) but can he put two wins together in the space of five days after a hard race at Kempton? Nanako Fujita nullifies the penalty.
Vivid Diamond, second here on King George day, heads a three-strong team for Mark Johnston in a race the trainer has won twice since 2010.
HAYLEY TURNER TAKES JOCKEYS’ VINO
4.00 Ascot (Sprint) If Never Do Nothing showed some spark for Andrew Balding, then Hero Hero might be a bet here, though I’m not keen on a Chester winner at Ascot.
Victory Day, the plunge horse (2.74 on BETDAQ), leapt forward from a Ripon maiden to narrowly miss out on a class-2 sprint at York in June on good-to-soft ground.
Jamie Spencer, the jockey for that York race, gets the mount again in the luck of the draw. Danny Tudhope, who won on him at Ripon, has to partner Hero Hero.
Kinks and Pass The Vino (7.4 for Hayley Turner) were separated by a neck on the July Course. Kinks, who can get revenge on Junius Brutus on Windsor form, is well exposed after 19 races but Vino, dropped a pound to gain revenge, is lightly raced and in a seam of form.
DAQMAN’S SHERGAR CUP 1-2 (ASCOT)
All first-choice bets staked to win 20pts; others 10pts
1.05 DANZENO (6.25pts), Corinthia Knight (1.25pts)
1.40 WHAT A WELCOME (3.5pts), Time To Study (1.25pts)
2.15 MELTING DEW (3.75pts), Koeman (1pt w/p minimum stake)
2.50 POWER OF DARKNESS (5pts), Via Serendipity (1.25pts) sub Nicklaus
3.25 BOERHAN (3pts), Zuba (1.25pts)
4.00 PASS THE VINO (3pts), Victory Day (5.75pts)
🔹 SILVER SADDLE:
1 Hayley Turner, 2 Gerald Mosse, 3 Vincent Ho, Filip Minarik, Danny Tudhope.
🔹 WINNING TEAM:
1 Europe (Filip Minarik, Gerald Mosse, Adrie de Vries)
3.05 Haydock (supernap)
BET 20pts win ADDEYBB
3.45 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 5pts win ULTRA VIOLET
4.05 Redcar (win 10)
BET 10pts win COUNTRY
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