KING GEORGE TRIPLE WHAMMY: Daqman had winners at 6-1 and 100-30 on Thursday but the change of going yesterday brought non-runners and shock results. How will the rain affect today’s King George at Ascot? Daqman’s answer is a daring Triple Whammy!
15.5 INTERNATIONAL VALUE: He goes head down for another triple (win, place at 15.5, and lay) in the International Stakes, one of two races in which he challenges Pricewise (current score Daqman 60, Pricewise 10; overall 201-83).
HIDDEN HORSE AT ASCOT: The first of his promised Hidden Horses runs in the 2.40 handicap at Ascot, and he finds another 15.5 bet in the York Dash.
SNOW SKY KING OF ASCOT ON THE SOFT GOING
3.50 Ascot (King George V1 and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, see Thursday Archive) The race could be won at 2.50, not 3.50. That’s when (according to the trade paper) John Gosden will decide whether to commit Golden Horn in the rain-softened ground.
That doubt alone suggests that his odds-on offers are wrong, and I put myself down in the BETDAQ green for a lay at 1.82 early mouse.
I’ve backed him all the way in his run of success but he’s always suggested that a mile and a half is his limit, and soft ground could find him out.
I’ve analysed the runners in my ABC Guide (see Thursday’s Daqman Archive) and, even with Golden Horn in the field, find that the 9.0 Snow Sky is big, big value.
That Sir Michael Stoute did his late-developer act on Snow Sky (who won on heavy as a juvenile) is clear from his defeat of top-stayer Brown Panther in the Yorkshire Cup and of Eagle Top in the Hardwicke, a 10-length reversal of form from Royal Ascot 2014, making him a stone better colt this year (and that’s ‘official’ in the ratings).
But that ‘late developer’ epithet is, in fact, misplaced. It’s an automatic choice of adjectival phrase for a burgeoning Stoute beast yet Snow Sky is still only four. The Sky’s the limit and Treve’s the target in the Arc.
For the place bet in my Triple Whammy – I hope the race has eight runners – I take Madame Chiang, who is loaded with stamina and the more rain the better: 18.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
I rarely bet fixed odds with bookmakers these days but, as the rain fell, spotted a desperate outfit offering 50-1 Madame Chiang with three times the odds on a first bet. So I opened an account with a 150-1 punt, in case the ground turns heavy!
IRISH RAIDER PORTAGE IS THE ‘HIDDEN HORSE’
1.30 Ascot Smart colts like Raven’s Pass and Toronado have won this in the decade, and Chesham third Sixth Sense (Mark Johnston) has bags of experience and a soft-ground sire.
But it would be no surprise to see one of the once-raced pair, Manaafidh (Richard Hannon) and Platitude overtake him, whichever one adapts to the changed ground. Johnston had six winners yesterday, Hannon four.
2.05 Ascot (Princess Margaret Stakes) Another two-year-old test of quality which last year produced the subsequent Nell Gwyn winner, Osaila, who had not been quite forward enough to make an impact at Royal Ascot (fifth in the Albany).
Besharah and Kassia, third and fifth in the Queen Mary, are similar types. But Besharah and Whatdoiwantthatfor are both Kodiaks, and Kassia and Salvo – in the same ownership as Golden Horn – both Acclamations. I wouldn’t want a penny on them on today’s surface!
As William Haggas told the trade paper of Besharah’s chance this morning: ‘I’ve no idea how she’ll go on the ground.”
And Mark Johnston favours 6f for Rah Rah (where William Buick wanted to revert to five) but is ‘concerned about soft ground, particularly from a stamina point of view.’ Any more oxymorons, Mark?
Rah Rah is a big filly, and I shall disagree with both Johnston and Buick. I would have thought that getting her toe in is the answer to her. Great Page also strikes me as a soft-ground 6f type.
Trainer Hannon agrees but on the racecard warns: ‘Great Page will run only if the ground is suitable.’
Suitable for what? Frying eggs or ice-skating? Isn’t it about time the trade paper asked itself this question: ‘What do some of these lazy phrases actually mean? Shouldn’t we as journalists aim to communicate?’
2.40 Ascot Grand Inquisitor impressed the handicapper (up 11lb) more than me on the last day but the general level here is class 3.
That means we’re looking for an improver, and Grand Inquisitor is lightly raced (three runs) and with the right stable to go forward.
So, too, the royal runner, Pick Your Choice, plus Irish raider Portage and Rocket Punch. Portage is the ‘hidden horse.’
Given an easy first run back, Portage was the gamble in the Britannia at Royal Ascot but was drawn on the wrong side.
By Teofilo, who won the Dewhurst on an easy surface, Portage goes back on the dam’s side to Zamindar (sire of Arc winner Zarkava) so, though he goes well on top of the ground, he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by soft and the market for the Britannia says he’s highly regarded.
It’s back to Ascot today for a consolation race he should win: 8.0 on BETDAQ this morning
LINCOLN BIG HANDICAP VALUE UNDER ‘HUGHSIE’
3.15 Ascot (International Stakes) Mark Johnston (Enlace) is going for a hat-trick, after winners at 33-1 (twice), but this is not a race for three-year-olds.
The last five winners have all been drawn in the high-stall half of the field, three of them from 22, 24 and 29; Enlace is in 22. But Royal Ascot results from the Hunt Cup and the Buckingham Palace Stakes are usually key.
Balty Boys (4th), Speculative Bid (5th), Ayaar, Field Of Dream, Lincoln, Sirius Prospect and Fort Bastion all ran in the Royal Hunt Cup.
Ayaar was badly drawn in the ‘coffin box’ stall one, and didn’t get the cover he needs. As hot favourite, he again got a low draw (when double-figure stalls finished 1-2-3) at the July Meeting. He’s in gate 12 today, leaving Frankie Dettori the choice of which bunch to follow.
Rene Mathis and One Word More, who finished closed together at York in May, were one-two in that race at the July Meeting, with Heaven’s Guest third, Suzi’s Connoisseur sixth, all handicapped to dead-heat now.
That should be the case with the entire field if the handicapper has done his job, but a high draw and a love of soft ground can overturn his efforts and give the punter an edge.
Speculative Bid didn’t get the best of runs in the Royal Hunt Cup, has won on heavy and is in stall 24. The danger is Lincoln (huge at 15.5), a winner on soft who has every chance with my selection on their Victoria Cup one-two, and Richard Hughes rides.
Clive Brittain has had a very poor season, so I can’t fancy Brazos, but the lay (for a place) is Rene Mathis, who looks like a winner without a penalty but has stinking form on this course, finishing 23rd and 21st at the last two royal meetings.
STEP UP FOR A ‘SHORE’-FIRE TRADE IN THE DASH
3.30 York (Dash) There are six York course-winners here, including old Hoof It (won in 2011) but rarely do horses over the age of five have the dash for this Dash.
I shall take one on either side of the draw. Front-runner Shore Step (19) has an interesting jockey booking in Silvestre De Sousa and, at 15.5, was a good first position this morning, hoping for a trade.
And I’ll have James Doyle on my side among the low numbers with Tanzeel (8.2) for Charles Hills, who is having such a great season. The jockey’s job here is to get him an even break; if he can do so, he’ll win.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except lays)
HIDDEN HORSE: BET 4.2pts win PORTAGE (2.40 Ascot)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: PLACE LAY 5pts RENE MATHIS, plus BET 5pts win SPECULATIVE BID, and 2pts win and place LINCOLN (3.15 Ascot)
BET 4pts win TANZEEL, and 2pts win and place SHORE STEP (3.30 York)
TRIPLE WHAMMY: LAY 10pts GOLDEN HORN, plus BET 3.75pts win (nap) SNOW SKY, and 1.75pts win and place MADAME CHIANG (3.50 Ascot)
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